At the start of every economic downturn in memory there has been a chorus of voices saying that recovery is just a matter of “confidence.” Supposedly all we have to do is pick ourselves up and “not talk ourselves into a recession.” Politicians, particularly those in power, are the ones who adhere most fervently to the confidence hypothesis. After all, it couldn’t possibly be the failure of their policies that is the cause of economic distress.

Speechwriters, always seeking to channel the rare moments of memorable political oratory, love the confidence theme. It echoes FDR’s famous line in his first inaugural: “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” But not even the most talented writer can muster either FDR’s eloquence or the gravity of the moment in which he spoke, March 1933. Today they are reduced to a narrative that it was the budget battles of July that produced a lack of confidence, leading to the current economic weakness. Those nasty Tea Partiers and other extremists who failed to give the president what he wanted are the cause of today’s malaise.