No public opinion organization has been polling presidential head-to-head match ups longer than the Gallup. Their archive of polling results provides a great benchmark to provide some historical context to today’s race. Which is why the debut of Gallup’s daily tracking poll pitting President Obama against Mitt Romney is such bad news for the White House incumbent.
According to Gallup’s first full sample of daily tracking results, Obama trails Romney 45 percent to 47 percent. A two-point deficit may seem inconsequential at first glance, but when you look back through history at how incumbent’s have fared in the past, the result starts looking much more ominous for Obama. Every president through 1980, even President Carter and President Bush who lost reelection, led their opponent in Gallup’s April polling. President Ford, who lost to President Carter 50 – 48, is the only incumbent to trail his challenger in April.
