Many skeptics and pundits have given Lt. Gov. Michael Steele a slim chance to replace Sen. Paul Sarbanes in the United States Senate in November.
But these pundits have missed the fact that Maryland is not a liberal state. It is a centrist state that elects members of both major parties to the U.S. Senate.
Recommended Stories
In the last century, Maryland voters have sent six Republicans and seven Democrats to the U.S. Senate, alternating between parties. Republican J. Glenn Beall Jr. served from 1971 to 1977 prior to Democrat Paul Sarbanes, for example.
J. Glenn Beall Sr. served from 1953 to 1965, taking over from Democrat Herbert R. O?Conor, who served from 1947 to 1953. With these precedents, it is hardly a historical fact that electing a Democrat to the U.S. Senate is a forgone conclusion. Democrats outnumber Republicans in voter registration, but don?t always vote for their party?s candidate.
Much has also been written about the geographical importance of Baltimore City and Prince George?s County as the must-win jurisdictions in November.
While these two jurisdictions are important, they are not the only crucial jurisdictions. Throughout the state, pockets of disaffected voters, both black and white, could provide the margin of victory for Steele.
The potential for a bruising primary fight between Kweisi Mfume and Benjamin Cardin presents an opening for black disenchantment. There may be black voters turned off by a Cardin primary victory because the Democratic Party has not reciprocated black party loyalty in fielding a statewide candidate.
These voters may switch to Steele, the first African American in Maryland to be elected to statewide office.
Black Prince Georgians may make history again by crossing party lines to vote for Steele just like they did in the 2002 lieutenant governor?s election. A loss by Mfume to Cardin in the Democratic Party primary could be seen as another slap in the face following Kathleen Kennedy Townsend?s decision to pass over several qualified black running mates to select a white running mate, retired Admiral Charles R. Larson, in the last gubernatorial election.
The anger from this incident still lingers and could become an issue for many black Democratic voters. Notwithstanding the outcome of the Democratic Party primary, Steele?s popularity in his home county could garner him many votes.
Second, it would be foolhardy to write off Steele in Baltimore County, the third “super-size” electoral jurisdiction in the state. This is Gov. Bob Ehrlich?s territory. Ehrlich and Steele?s strong partnership could mean that Steele will poll well there.
And Steele is likely to poll extremely well in at least three other “mid-size” electoral jurisdictions, including Anne Arundel, Harford and Frederick counties, all of which have centrist-conservative populations, as well as in the rural and conservative lower Eastern Shore region. His performance in these counties could offset the anticipated loss in heavily Democratic jurisdictions like Montgomery County and Baltimore City.
This election will be competitive. Historically, Maryland voters have shown great balance in electing their leaders.
Once again, Maryland voters will look for political centrism and disciplined, issue-centered campaigns that cross political, racial, economic, class and social boundaries.
Solomon Iyobosa Omo-Osagie II is a professor of political science at Baltimore City Community College. He can be reached at [email protected].
