1. The biggest national results are the ones that got the least attention. Yes, the GOP was given a majority in the House of Representatives. The party’s more profound gains, though were among the ranks of state legislators. As Erick Erickson notes, a “minimum of seventeen state legislative houses have flipped to the Republican Party.” This will have enormous implications for redistricting.
2. Virginia’s races aren’t over. Wins by Robert Hurt and Morgan Griffith mean special elections to fill their seats in the General Assembly. And as has been mentioned elsewhere, the jockeying to replace Griffith as House majority leader is underway. His most likely replacement is Del. Kirk Cox, which could be a very good thing for conservative activists who’ve often seen soon-to-be former leader Morgan Griffith as more of a hindrance than a help.
3. The interesting omens surrounding Eric Cantor. Mr. Cantor defeated Democrat Rick Waugh by 15 points — a handy win in anyone’s book. But Cantor’s 59 percent of the vote was the lowest among Virginia’s incumbent Republicans as well as the lowest of his career (even in the Democratic wave of 2008, Cantor won win 63 percent of the vote). His higher profile has brought greater scrutiny and it will only grow over the next two years. When his district is redrawn, it’s assumed that some of his currently-represented areas will be shifted to Rep. Bob Goodlatte. That might make Cantor’s home base even more Republican.
4. The giddiness of cheerleaders aside, the GOP is on a very short leash. They forget that at their peril. And was does any of this mean for once and future Senate candidate George Allen? Perhaps more than a few sleepless nights hoping that the GOP doesn’t botch its second chance.
5. The real test for the tea parties and other groups in Virginia comes in next year’s legislative elections. Other states have set a very high bar for success in legislative contests, flipping even states like North Carolina and Alabama from Democrat to Republican control (which hasn’t happened since Reconstruction). Will Virginia measure up? We will soon find out.
