Forget President Obama’s low approval ratings and the economic doldrums. The path to the White House still goes through the Electoral College. That means basic math will drive the 2012 presidential race to get to the magic 270 Electoral College votes required to win. Regardless of whom Republicans nominate, 46 states and the District of Columbia can be assigned already. Obama will win states worth 247 electoral votes: California, Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin.
Despite their best efforts, Republicans haven’t won Illinois, Michigan, Oregon, Pennsylvania or Washington since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide win. Reagan’s 1980 win was the last one for Republicans in Wisconsin, and Republicans haven’t won Minnesota since Richard Nixon in 1972. New Mexico is the toughest call, but Obama’s sizable win in 2008 portends a repeat in 2012.
