After months of sending mixed signals about whether he will run for president, Jeb Bush on Tuesday was unequivocal.
Bush, a former Florida governor and a brother and son of former presidents, announced on Facebook that he has “decided to actively explore the possibility of running for president of the United States.”
The unusually early announcement was the most public and unambiguous acknowledgement of Bush’s metamorphosis over the past few weeks from an unlikely candidate, to a reluctant one, to a serious contender and potential frontrunner.
Behind the scenes, a campaign already has begun to take shape.
Bush’s network has reached out to New Hampshire Republicans to potentially lead his campaign there, RealClearPolitics reported recently.
Bush’s team has also talked with outgoing National Republican Senatorial Committee Executive Director Rob Collins and is interested in him as campaign manager should Bush launch a bid, a well-placed Republican source told the Washington Examiner. One longtime Bush ally, Sally Bradshaw, met with Collins and outgoing National Republican Congressional Committee Executive Director Liesl Hickey last month in Washington. Collins would not comment on the record.
“No one has been offered any campaign manager position yet because there’s not a campaign,” said one Bush aide. “It’s certainly very normal for conversations to be had with potential donors and potential operatives, but there’s been no formal offer or talks about the campaign manager position with anyone.”
Even as Bush has warmed to the idea of running for president, the influential Republican donors and operatives who would help propel Bush through a primary have remained skeptical that he will run. Bush’s announcement Tuesday was likely less a message to his potential adversaries — such as Mitt Romney, who is rumored to be weighing another bid — than to those same party power brokers, to urge them not to dismiss Bush or count him out.
“Given the public pronouncements Jeb has already made about considering a 2016 run, it’s far more likely he is sending a message to donors and activists and party leaders that he’s taking serious steps to put himself in the best position for a final decision to run,” said Kevin Madden, a senior adviser to Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign.
Bush’s announcement, although noncommittal, might accelerate the pace of the 2016 presidential election cycle, which many Republicans expected to begin in earnest in the spring.
But the most potent effect could be to throw a wrench in New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s and Sen. Marco Rubio’s presidential ambitions or upend the timelines for their decisions.
Rubio, a fellow Floridian, would likely draw heavily from the same pool of Florida donors and activists as Bush, who served as governor while Rubio was a state lawmaker. A recent Saint Leo University Polling Institute of Florida survey of voters found that 34 percent would back Bush over other Republicans, while 10 percent would pick Rubio.
Still, Rubio and Bush likely would occupy different ideological niches within the larger Republican field.
Bush, seen as part of the Republican establishment, has suggested he would take a more moderate approach to a Republican primary. In recent remarks, he said Republicans must be willing to “lose the primary to win the general” election.
Rubio, for his part, has positioned himself to run on a platform appealing more to the conservative wing of the party, although his role in a Senate immigration reform proposal might complicate that strategy.
In a statement Tuesday, a spokesman for Rubio said the senator’s decision to run for president — or not — will not be swayed by Bush or anyone else.
“Marco has a lot of respect for Gov. Bush and believes he would be a formidable candidate,” said Alex Conant, a spokesman for Rubio. “However, Marco’s decision on whether to run for president or re-election will be based on where he can best achieve his agenda to restore the American Dream — not on who else might be running.”
Rubio also, for now, appears to be moving forward with plans to meet with party donors in Florida next month.
Still, Christie might be the most threatened of all by Bush’s early entree into the fray, although he does not share a state in common with him.
Christie has attempted to establish himself as a moderate, results-oriented candidate unafraid to take on policies and people in his own party — a brand similar to that being cultivated by Bush. But Christie does not have the deep and broad network of donors and political allies who Bush will have at his disposal, potentially placing Christie at an early disadvantage.
“[Christie] does not have that same political talent around him at this point, he occupies the exact same ideological space as Jeb, and the donors Christie was going to get money from are all going to flock to Jeb now,” said one senior Republican strategist. “I just don’t see how Christie finds room.”
