As the Clinton campaign has become more confident about today’s primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, the Obama campaign has begun flaunting the hard numbers to demonstrate that the math still favors its candidate as the likely nominee.
Obama spokesman Bill Burton has circulated the campaign’s latest delegate calculations in the epic battle for the Democratic nomination. The campaign’s math shows that despite the recent damaging comments of his former pastor, Obama remains well ahead of Clinton in pledged delegates, 1,749 to 1,611. According to Burton, Obama is just 276 delegates shy of the 2,025 needed to capture the Democratic nomination while Clinton needs 414 to achieve victory.
There are 408 remaining pledged delegates, including those up for grabs in today’s primaries. There are 279 remaining unpledged superdelegates.
University of North Carolina political science professor Bill Sabo said the Obama campaign’s delegate count memo “is an indication of their concern. The longer the campaign has dragged on, the more the candidates have to revive and refine their message so they can be fresh, and I don’t think he has done that as well as she has.”
Nonetheless, Obama keeps edging ahead of Clinton in the fight over the remaining uncommitted superdelegates, who will ultimately decide the winner.
On Monday, three more lined up behind Obama while at the same time, polls are showing Clinton is on the upswing in both Indiana and North Carolina. Averages posted by RealClearPolitics give her a five-point advantage in Indiana and indicate that Obama’s once double-digit lead in North Carolina has shrunk in recent weeks to a seven-point lead.
The shift to Clinton is pronounced enough that even her normally cautious campaign team was touting it on Monday.
“What we expect is a result that will look a heck of a lot better than things looked for us a month ago in each of these states,” Clinton campaign chief strategist Geoff Garin told reporters in a conference call.
Earlier Monday morning, Clinton told ABC News “We started out so far behind and clearly have made up some ground.”
But barring the inconceivable notion of double-digit blowouts by Clinton in both states, she will still in all likelihood end up behind Obama in the pledged delegate count when the primaries end on June 3. And unless she starts beating him in the daily acquisition of superdelegates, Obama will either surpass her in that category or get within close reach within the next few weeks.
The general public, however, may not be doing the same math. New national poll numbers give Clinton a 3.5-point advantage over presumptive Republican nominee John McCain, compared with a half-point edge by Obama.
“It is about math but it’s also about momentum,” veteran Democratic pollster Peter Fenn said. “And it is about looking ahead to November. Some of these changes in the national polls are what has buoyed the Clinton campaign and given the Obama campaign a little pause.”
