SHOWDOWN AT TRUMP TOWER: Today, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, CIA Director John Brennan and FBI Director James Comey brief President-elect Trump at his Manhattan headquarters, as Trump continues to tweet skepticism of the U.S. intelligence community’s conclusion that Russian leaders were not only behind the hacks of the DNC and John Podesta’s email, but also engaged in a broad propaganda and fake news campaign aimed at helping Trump. The latest Twitter broadside from Trump came last night. “The Democratic National Committee would not allow the FBI to study or see its computer info after it was supposedly hacked by Russia,” Trump tweeted, with a follow up, “So how and why are they so sure about hacking if they never even requested an examination of the computer servers? What is going on?”
During yesterday’s Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, Clapper could barely disguise his displeasure with the president-elect’s dismissive attitude toward the intelligence professionals charged with protecting the nation. “I think there is an important distinction here between healthy skepticism, which policy makers — to include policy maker No. 1 — should always have for intelligence, but I think there’s a difference between skepticism and disparagement,” Clapper said. He said that since a initial Oct. 7 statement about Russia’s involvement, the assessment is even more resolute.
Some of that new information has begun to leak out. Both CNN and the Washington Post reported last night the U.S. has identified the intermediaries who allegedly delivered the hacked emails to WikiLeaks, and that intercepted communications showing Moscow’s “ebullient reaction” to Trump’s victory contributed to the assessment that the motive was helping the Trump campaign.
But Clapper made clear there is no evidence Russian hackers tampered with voting machines or the actual casting or tallying of votes, and he said there was no way for the intelligence community to know if the Russian information warfare campaign actually affected the outcome of the election. “There’s no way for us to gauge that,” Clapper said.
GETTING PERSONAL: Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, the former Democratic Vice Presidential candidate, took aim at Trump’s National Security Adviser-designate retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, accusing him of being a purveyor of just the sort of fake news that Moscow was spreading to smear the Clinton campaign. “These are stories that most fourth graders would find incredible. That a national security adviser would find them believable enough to share them causes me great concern,” Kaine said. Kaine noted he was the victim of several blatantly false news stories, including one that got 800,000 views on the Internet.
The hearing called by Sen. John McCain was supposed to cover not just Russia, but also the cyber threat posed by many foreign countries to the U.S. Clapper did address that, along with other goals Russia might be pursuing, including explaining influence in the western hemisphere.
COATS IN, WOOLSEY OUT: Trump is expected to name former Indiana Sen. Dan Coats as his director of national intelligence, according to multiple reports. Coats, a Republican, was spotted at Trump Tower shortly after the president-elect’s victory in November, though he told reporters at the time he was simply there to lend Trump advice. The formal announcement could come as early as today. Then last night, former CIA Director James Woolsey announced he was off the transition team. He didn’t say why, but it comes days after contradicting Trump on the hacking issue. Woolsey told CNN on Monday he thought “the Russians were in there, but it doesn’t mean other people weren’t in there, too.”
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RUSSIA BEGINS DRAWDOWN IN SYRIA: In a clear sign that Syrian President Bashar Assad’s grip on power is firmer than ever, Russia is beginning to draw down some of its military forces in the wake of the defeat of rebels in Aleppo. The Kremlin announced today it’s withdrawing its aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, which has been conducting airstrikes since mid-November. The cease-fire brokered by Russia and Turkey has mostly held for nearly a week now, and peace talks are set for Astana, Kazakhstan’s capital, this month. Secretary of State John Kerry says that, while not a party to the talks, the U.S. continues to support diplomatic efforts to achieve an effective cessation of hostilities and a transition to a government capable of uniting the Syrian people. In remarks at the State Department yesterday, Kerry said “We’re not competing with – we back – the efforts of Russia and Turkey and Iran to talk,” adding that he has been in consultations with his Russian and Turkish counterparts to discuss how to build on the Astana talks “in order to get to Geneva and get to the real negotiations that the international community supports.”
SNAG OVER SANCTIONS? A bipartisan plan to impose sanctions on Russia in response to cyberattacks conducted during the 2016 elections could hit a snag among key Republicans, despite the lawmakers’ belief that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government interfered in the campaign, Joel Gehrke writes. By turns, lawmakers question the timing and effectiveness of a new sanctions regime. “We’re changing administrations right now, we’re 15 days away from that,” Sen. James Risch told reporters Thursday. “I think everybody needs to stop, catch your breath, and see where this whole thing is going to go before we make specific plans.”
PUSHING BACK, PART I: After Trump tweeted this week about “intelligence” and “so-called hacking,” and after citing WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange as proof that the Russians weren’t trying to influencing the election, Trump seemed surprised Thursday morning that people were saying he agreed with Assange and didn’t like the intel community.
“The dishonest media likes saying that I am in Agreement with Julian Assange – wrong,” Trump tweeted. Trump said he simply stated what Assange said for the benefit of the people so that they can “make up their own minds” regarding the truth. “The media lies to make it look like I am against ‘Intelligence’ when in fact I am a big fan!” he said.
PUSHING BACK, PART II: Not long after, Rep. Michael McCaul also countered a common opinion of Trump: that he has an unhealthy affinity for Putin. “I don’t want to get into my private conversations with him. I want to keep those confidential,” McCaul said. “But I will say that he acknowledged that Mr. Putin is not our friend. I think he wants a stronger relationship with Russia and Mr. Putin. I think the reset button did not work with Hillary Clinton. I think he would like to change the dynamics we have with Russia.”
PUSHING BACK, PART III: While we’re at it, Trump’s transition team denied Thursday that the incoming administration is planning major changes to the country’s top spy agencies, just hours after a Wall Street Journal report asserted that it was. “There is no truth to this idea of restructuring the intelligence community’s infrastructure,” Sean Spicer, incoming White House press secretary, told reporters on a conference call Thursday morning. “These reports are false.”
PHILIPPINES SEEKS NEW BFF: Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte is expressing the hope that Russia will would become his country’s “ally and protector.” The latest cozying up to Moscow came as Duterte toured one of the two Russian warships on a four-day visit to Manila, reports Reuters. The remarks came a day after Russia’s ambassador to Manila said Moscow is ready to supply the Philippines with sophisticated weapons and aims to become its close friend. Doesn’t sound good for the future of Philippine-U.S. relations. Duterte has been moving away from the U.S. and toward Russia, after U.S. criticism of his campaign of extrajudicial killings of alleged drug dealers in his country.
THEN THERE WERE 55: The population of Guantánamo Bay continues to dwindle. Four detainees were transferred to Saudi Arabia on Thursday, bringing the total number of men remaining to 55. We expect about 15 more transfers before Obama leave office, in defiance of the president-elect’s Twitter entreaty to halt further releases, in which he said the remaining prisoners were “extremely dangerous people and should not be allowed back onto the battlefield.”
HAPPENING THIS MORNING: Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James speaks early this morning at a breakfast event in what could be her final public remarks before Obama’s administration comes to an end. Check back later, and we’ll tell you what she said in her valedictory remarks.
MIND THE GAP: The Pentagon yesterday made a high-profile announcement of the routine deployment of the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson to the western Pacific. Such deployments happen all the time with little notice, but Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook made a point of reading off the Carl Vinson’s itinerary in an apparent effort to counter the recent reports of a carrier gap in the Persian Gulf and South China Sea. Navy officials say the gap, the first time anyone can remember since World War II in which no U.S. aircraft carriers were deployed anywhere in the world, was caused by longer-than-expected maintenance for the USS George H.W. Bush, which departs this month for the Gulf. Officials said the gap was planned for, and was not militarily significant. “We have significant capabilities within the U.S. military,” Cook said. “They are not all limited to aircraft carriers.”
COOK TIMER: He’s getting closer. Twice this week the lame-duck Pentagon press secretary started his briefing just 7 minutes late. For the preternaturally tardy Peter Cook, that almost counts as on time. Cook has a few more tries before Jan. 20. The briefings are getting shorter, too. Yesterday’s lasted just 23 minutes.
THE RUNDOWN
Military Times: More U.S. troops are being wounded in Iraq and Syria, the Pentagon quietly acknowledges
Wall Street Journal: Defense Firms Cash In Amid Soaring Demand For Munitions
Stars and Stripes: Osprey Aerial-Refueling Drills Resume After Crash On Okinawa
Military.com: Marines May Return to Afghanistan as Advisers This Spring
U.S. Naval Institute News: Interview: Lt. Gen. Bailey Says F-35, Closer Partnerships Will Enhance Operations In 2017
CNN: Osama bin Laden’s son Hamza put on US terror watch list
Wall Street Journal: Secret Report Shows Just How Badly Belgium Mishandled Hunt for ISIS Operatives
Defense Daily: Strengthening Dollar Is Mixed Bag For U.S. Defense Contractors
Defense One: How Many Airstrikes Did US Forces Execute in 2016?
UPI: U.S. Air Force contracts BAE Systems for intelligence sharing
USNI News: Interview: Lt. Gen. Bailey Says F-35, Closer Partnerships Will Enhance Operations in 2017
Marine Corps Times: Witnesses say Parris Island drill instructor sent recruits to ‘the dungeon’
Army Times: New Army policy OKs soldiers to wear hijabs, turbans and religious beards
Calendar
FRIDAY | JANUARY 6
7 a.m. 1401 Lee Highway, Arlington, Va. Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James speaks at an Air Force Association breakfast event. afa.org
TUESDAY | JANUARY 10
9 a.m. Livestream. John Kerry, the secretary of state, and Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, Trump’s national security adviser, will speak at a “passing the baton” event hosted by the United States Institute of Peace. usip.org
9:30 a.m. Hart 216. The Senate Armed Services Committee holds a hearing on civilian control of the military. armed-services.senate.gov
10 a.m. Hyatt Regency Crystal City, Arlington, Va. The Surface Navy Association hosts its annual three-day symposium, featuring remarks from Vice Chief of Naval Operations Adm. William Moran and Rep. Rob Wittman. navysna.org
WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 11
9:30 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Officials from the Marine Corps discuss how science fiction has impacted the service’s ability to develop new technology. atlanticcouncil.org
10 a.m. Hart 216. The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence holds an open hearing, followed by a closed session. intelligence.senate.gov
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. John Sopko, the special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction, speaks about challenges for the next president and new lawmakers. csis.org
10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson speaks at the Woodrow Wilson Center. wilsoncenter.org
10:30 a.m. 850 10th St. NW. Vice Adm. Joseph Rixey, the director of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, delivers a keynote on reforming the security cooperation enterprise. ndia.org
2 p.m. Dirksen 342. Retired Gen. John Kelly has his confirmation hearing to serve as the secretary of homeland security. hsgac.senate.gov
3:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. The Atlantic Council releases a paper titled, “A Nonstate Strategy for Saving Cyberspace.” atlanticcouncil.org
THURSDAY | JANUARY 12
2 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. A panel of experts talks about how the next president should combat Al Qaeda in Syria. atlanticcouncil.org
FRIDAY | JANUARY 13
3:30 p.m. 901 17th St. NW. Retired Adm. James Stavridis talks about the growing problem of U.S. national security. stimson.org
