The power struggle between progressive insurgents and the Democratic Party’s establishment rages on, but the establishment seems to be holding its ground in 2018, according to a new analysis.
When it comes to endorsements, FiveThirtyEight crunched the numbers this cycle to determine which influencers are having the most success winning primaries around the country. “The organization with the best endorsement record in Democratic primaries remains the Democratic Party itself,” FiveThirtyEight wrote. “Candidates who are on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Red to Blue list or endorsed by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had a win rate of 95 percent (37 wins out of 39 endorsements). In races where a party-endorsed candidate ran against a progressive-group-endorsed candidate (excluding any races where a candidate was endorsed by both sides), the party-endorsed candidate won 89 percent of the time.” Our Revolution’s primary-win rate, by comparison, was 32 percent. Indivisible’s was higher, at 65 percent, but still much lower than the party committees’.
This doesn’t necessarily mean progressives are losing primaries — it’s not as though the DCCC’s Red to Blue list is full of centrists, and “establishment” leaders like DNC chair Tom Perez and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., are progressives. But note FiveThirtyEight’s finding that “in races where a party-endorsed candidate ran against a progressive-group-endorsed candidate (excluding any races where a candidate was endorsed by both sides), the party-endorsed candidate won 89 percent of the time.” In other words, where primaries have featured intra-party struggles between the establishment and anti-establishment wings, the establishment has won.
The individual endorser with the highest success rate was Joe Biden — 10 of the 10 candidates he endorsed won their primaries. Five out of five candidates endorsed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., won theirs. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., endorsed nine candidates and five of them succeeded.
Primary season offers a helpful window into where a party’s base stands. And while Democrats’ internal war is very real, the party’s establishment hasn’t exactly been toppled yet.
