After Corey Stewart narrowly lost the Republican nomination for governor of Virginia to Ed Gillespie, he declared, “There’s one word you won’t hear from me, and that’s ‘unity.’” Apparently his supporters don’t agree.
Stewart’s surprising finish hinted at a lack of broad support for Gillespie, who won just 43.7 percent of the primary vote to Stewart’s 42.5 percent. The margin was enough to avoid a recount but RealClearPolitics averages, relying on just a handful of head-to-head polls before the primary, had Gillespie down at least eight points against either Democrat.
But new polling suggests the race between Gillespie and Democratic nominee Ralph Northam is neck and neck. A poll taken just after the primary by Harper Polling puts both candidates at 46 percent support, with the remaining 8 percent of the electorate undecided.
The poll has Gillespie leading among undecided voters 19 percent to 7 percent (with the remainder “truly undecided”). Harper, a Republican polling outfit, also reports that Gillespie has consolidated more of his party’s support, though the differences are slim: 89 percent of Republicans support Gillespie while 86 favor Northam.
The Gillespie campaign sees an opportunity. They put out a memo announcing that their internal polling gave a similar reading to Harper’s: 46 percent for Gillespie with 45 for Northam. In that poll, Gillespie led Northam among independents 49 to 37 percent, and Gillespie enjoyed higher name recognition, 85 percent to Northam’s 64 percent. Northam is the current lieutenant governor, but Gillespie’s near-victory at unseating Democratic senator Mark Warner in 2014 propelled him into statewide prominence.
That gives the Republicans a chance to define Northam before he can define himself. The same memo that disclosed their internal poll also suggested that they have the means to do it. Republicans have twice as much cash on hand as the Democrats (which they ascribe to a cheaper primary campaign), and 6,000 volunteers who made more than 800,000 voter contacts during the primaries—nearly as many voters as cast ballots in both primaries combined.
Among all voters in the Harper poll, Northam has higher favorable ratings, though both candidates are generally more favorable than unfavorable.
For those despairing the future of conservatism and Republicans, Gillespie’s numbers offer some reassurance. He beats Northam among voters age 18-34 by 22 percent (56 to 34). No, that’s not a typo. The candidates are tied among voters age 35-54.
Gillespie also enjoys 31 percent support among African Americans and 38 percent support among other non-white voters. Gillespie’s first campaign ad will run in the three most commonly spoken languages in the commonwealth: English, Spanish, and Korean.
If Gillespie wins, he’ll be the first Republican to win state-wide in Virginia since 2009, and the second since 2002. The November election is still months away, but Gillespie’s campaign gives the impression they won the first week.
