Let the guessing game begin

They’ll take the big man who can rebound, hustle and block a few shots. Then again, he’ll be gone. So the Wizards will select a different power forward, another one who plays with energy — as well as a limited offensive game.

But he might be gone, too. Which means they’ll take a player from Senegal, a sleeper who has drawn comparisons to Dikembe Mutombo. Except he might need a year, or three, to become more than a bit player.

Oh, the joys of drafting 18th, where the guessing is great and speculation is rampant. Various mock drafts can’t even agree on who the Wizards will take: a reviewof nine mock drafts produced nine different selections.

“I know who I like,” Wizards General Manager Ernie Grunfeld said, “but I don’t know if he’ll be there.”

Grunfeld, though, is mum on who that player will be, lest he tip his hand. It’s clear what they need: more defensive presence inside and increased bench scoring. Whether or not a draftee can provide immediate help is another matter.

“It’s very seldom you have a playoff team where you get someone at 18 who will come in and be part of the rotation,” Grunfeld said.

It’s also unlikely that the Wizards will make a trade.

“I don’t know if there’s an impact player out there where you’d give up someone who’s proven,” Grunfeld said. “We have some young players on our roster that we feel good about. We look at [2004 second-rounder] Peter John Ramos and [2005 second-rounder] Andray [Blatche] as first-round picks.

“We’ve shown we’re not afraid to pull the trigger. …[But] we made a lot of changes last summer and I don’t anticipate that kind of turnover; I believe in continuity and chemistry. Having said that, if the right opportunity presents itself, it’s something we’ll look at.”

The Wizards have been projected to pick: Kentucky point guard Rajon Rando, North Carolina State power forward Cedric Simmons, Switzerland small forward Thabo Sefolosha, Florida State’s Alexander Johnson, Connecticut power forward/center Hilton Armstrong, Memphis forward Shawne Williams, Senegal center Mouhamed Saer Sene, Michigan State guard Maurice Ager and Ukraine power forward Olexsiv Pecherov.

Simmons would add a defensive and rebounding presence, though he could be gone before 18. Saer Sene is considered extremely raw offensively – he started playing basketball only five years ago – but his shot-blocking and defense are near-NBA ready. Armstrong plays with energy defensively, but is limited offensively. Ager could eventually provide scoring off the bench.

Slim pickings?

» The 2006 NBA Draft will be held Wednesday at New York’s Madison Square Garden. ESPN’s coverage begins at 7 p.m.

» The Wizards have the 18th and 48th picks in Wednesday’s draft. They have worked out more than 50 players in preparing for the draft. How important is the second round pick? Five of their players this year were former second-rounders, including Gilbert Arenas. They have six former lottery selections.

» This draft is widely considered a weak one, mainly because of the absence of high school players. But many of the players who would have turned pro after high school this year are expected to do so after their freshman year, making the 2007 draft a potentially deep one.

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