The campaign to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom is moving closer to reality as Republicans behind the signature-gathering expect to announce the collection of more than 2 million petitions.
With just under 1.5 million signatures required and a validity rate of 83.6%, recall organizers are confident they have amassed enough verified petitions to qualify for a recall election for the ballot this year. Their announcement could come Friday, five days before the March 17 deadline to submit qualified signatures. Next would be a lengthy verification process as state officials and Newsom’s political team comb through petitions looking for errors in a last-ditch effort to quash the recall.
“People are lining up around the block to sign these petitions,” said Anne Dunsmore, a Republican strategist in California and key organizer of the signature-gathering effort. “We’re where we need to be.”
Recall organizers had submitted more than 1.8 million petitions to California’s 58 counties, with plenty more in the pipeline set to be turned in next week. “We will have an announcement Friday about reaching a major signature milestone,” said Dave Gilliard, another Republican strategist behind the effort to recall Newsom before he stands for reelection in 2022. Gilliard led the petition drive to put the 2003 gubernatorial recall on the ballot.
That led to the removal of Democrat Gray Davis and to the election of Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, who won a full term as governor three years later. But two political developments in the years since could protect Newsom. California is more firmly Democratic than 18 years ago, especially in the immediate aftermath of former President Donald Trump’s tenure. And there are hurdles for Republicans to overcome to trigger a recall that did not exist back then.
Beginning next Wednesday, the deadline for submitting recall petitions, counties have 30 “business days” to verify signatures, a period that runs through April 29. Republicans expect majority Democratic counties to wait the full time period before certifying to the secretary of state’s office that the petitions are valid. At that point, Newsom, a 53-year-old Democrat, has an additional 30 days to take advantage of the claw-back provision in the recall law.
During this period, the Newsom campaign can call petition signatories and ask them to withdraw support for the recall. If voters in sufficient numbers were convinced to stick with the governor, the election would fail to qualify for the ballot. Should enough petitions hold, the recall will likely be scheduled for this fall, although state officials could use administrative delays to push the contest to late 2021 or possibly early next year.
Two would-be GOP challengers to Newsom are not waiting for the election to qualify. John Cox, the Republican Newsom easily defeated in 2018, has launched a campaign. So has former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer. Some wealthy Republican donors are lobbying Ric Grenell to jump in. He has not said no. Grenell served in the Trump administration, both as U.S. Ambassador to Germany and as acting director of national intelligence.
Rep. Devin Nunes, a Republican who represents a conservative, Central Valley congressional district, said the GOP needs to coalesce behind one candidate to put the party in the best position to win a recall campaign. “The key will be to make sure there’s one Republican,” he told KMJ Now, a local talk radio station. There are two parts to the recall ballot: A referendum on recalling the governor and a vote for a replacement candidate.
Newsom is under enormous political pressure, sparked last November when he was caught dining indoors with friends at a chic Napa Valley restaurant in defiance of regulations he implemented via executive order to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus. The governor’s problems have since multiplied. Californians are unhappy with the unwieldy delivery of COVID-19 vaccinations, parents are frustrated by the continued closure of public schools, and Newsom is contending with a scandal-ridden pandemic relief program.
These issues have fueled growing support for the recall. The governor is paying attention.
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For several weeks, he has traveled California to meet with voters and detail his blueprint for defeating the coronavirus and return the state to a normal economic footing, although his plans have, at times, been vague and further inflamed critics. On Tuesday, Newsom aggressively defended his stewardship of California and took subtle but pointed shots at the fledgling recall campaign as he delivered the annual state of the state address.
“To the California critics out there who are promoting partisan, political power-grabs with outdated prejudices and rejecting everything that makes California truly great, we say this: We will not be distracted from getting shots in arms and our economy booming again,” he said.
