Sen. Barack Obama’s return to Virginia just two days after effectively clinching the Democratic nomination signals his recognition of the Old Dominion as one of the nation’s most indispensable swing states.
Obama secured an overwhelming victory in the Feb. 12 Potomac Primary in Maryland, the District and Virginia, taking it by a nearly 2-to-1 margin over Sen. Hillary Clinton. But political observers say the state that put Obama on the road to the nomination poses a far greater challenge in the general election. He now faces winning over constituencies expected to vote for Sen. John McCain, especially the state’s large population of military personnel and retirees.
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“I think Virginia can expect a much more interesting campaign year in the state than has been the case in a long time,” said University of Mary Washington political science professor Stephen Farnsworth. “The Obama campaign sees Virginia, and sees Gov. [Tim] Kaine as a useful ally in trying to get to the magic number of 270 electoral votes.”
Kaine, an early Obama supporter, is considered a vice presidential prospect, as are former Gov. Mark Warner and Sen. Jim Webb.
Obama is set to begin today with a morning town hall meeting in Bristol, which sits on the Tennessee border in a white, working-class region that was the part of the state that widely favored Clinton in February.
The Illinois senator then is planning to head to Bristow in Prince William County this evening for a rally at Nissan Pavilion.
“In Nova he’ll do well,” Rep. Tom Davis, a retiring Republican who represents Virginia’s 11th District, said at a breakfast with reporters Wednesday.
Obama won’t see the same strong margins in Northern Virginia that Warner took in 2001 in his bid for governor, said Davis, who cautioned that Virginia is “still a red state in my opinion.”
“I don’t think it’s a blue thing. It’s still a right-of-center state,” he said.
But having Warner, who is running for the Senate, on the ticket in November would give Obama an advantage, Farnsworth said, because Warner has historically done well with white down-state voters.
McCain, he said, also faces the prospect of third-party opposition that could drain conservative Virginia votes.
Obama spokeswoman Amy Brundage called Virginia “a critically important state in November.”
