On Monday morning, President Trump tweeted, “A big deal looking good with Mexico!” Later, he announced that a deal had been reached and seemed ready to declare victory. The problem with this, of course, is that U.S. trade policy, especially when enacted through legislation, does not simply bend to the president’s will, even when expressed forcefully from the Oval Office.
For a president who can claim few successes from his belligerent trade policies, an agreement with Mexico that would pave the way for revising and updating the North American Free Trade Agreement would be a key victory. The only problem is that, for Trump, even with his announcement, there are still roadblocks to renegotiating NAFTA: Congress and Canada.
For a new NAFTA deal, or even a new bilateral deal with Mexico, would require approval from both the Senate and the House. Much of the agreement is codified by statute passed by Congress and Trump can’t change legislation without lawmakers.
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Depending on what is in the deal that eventually comes before lawmakers, both Republicans and Democrats might object — especially if Trump’s proposal doesn’t include Canada. Congress also makes the timing of Trump’s deal difficult, as Trump would want a vote on the agreement before lawmakers elected in the November midterm elections take their seats, as Republicans may lose control of Congress. In order for a vote to take place, the administration must notify Congress, which will then have 90 days to conduct its review process and then decide if it supports Trump’s deal.
And then there’s Canada. Revising NAFTA isn’t just about Mexico, it also has to include Canada, one of our biggest trading partners. As the U.S. and Mexico worked to iron out their individual agreement, Canada was not at the negotiating table, despite reportedly trying to participate. Avoiding criticism of being left out, Canada has since indicated that it is interested working on a trilateral agreement.
Trump, however, has expressed his desire to instead have two bilateral agreements and then scrap the existing three-party NAFTA. Bilateral agreements are unlikely, however, as Mexico, Canada, industries, and U.S. lawmakers have all opposed that outcome. In recent months, the relationship between the U.S. and Canada has also chilled — mostly because of the U.S.-initiated trade war — which could frustrate an agreement. Trump’s latest threats to add more tariffs on cars if Canada doesn’t agree to his plan certainly doesn’t help and likely will make the president’s desire to make a deal more difficult.
To be clear, working towards trade deals is a step in the right direction and working out a revised NAFTA deal that is updated for the 21st century would be good for all parties involved. For Trump to make good on his promise to negotiate a better deal, however, will take much more than a feel-good televised announcement and will require agreement from both Canada and Congress.
