IT’S UP TO IRAN: While talking tough, President Trump made clear in his interview with NBC’s Chuck Todd that he has no stomach for all-out war with Iran. “I’m not looking for war. And if there is, it will be obliteration like you’ve never seen before. But I’m not looking to do that,” he told Todd on Meet the Press yesterday.
Trump insists he’s ready to talk without any conditions. “Not as far as I’m concerned. No preconditions,” he said. His bottom-line message to Iran’s leaders: “You can’t have nuclear weapons, and if you want to talk about it, good. Otherwise, you can live in a shattered economy for a long time to come.”
Trump is planning to slap new sanctions on Iran today while at the same promising to be Iran’s “best friend” if it agrees to U.S. demands.
WHAT IRAN WANTS: Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani rejected new talks unless, says an adviser, the United States is talking about giving Iran a better deal than the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which Trump has derided as the “worst deal ever.”
“U.S. offer for negotiations with no precondition is not acceptable while sanctions and threats continue. If they want something beyond the JCPOA, they should offer something beyond the JCPOA; with international guarantees,” Hesameddin Ashena tweeted Monday.
HAWKS AND DOVES: Trump confirmed what some administration critics have said about national security adviser John Bolton, namely that he’s been leading the charge for war. “Yes. John Bolton is absolutely a hawk. If it was up to him, he’d take on the whole world at one time,” Trump said. But Trump argues Bolton’s bellicosity doesn’t matter, because in the end the president makes the call.
“Everybody was saying I’m a warmonger, and now they say I’m a dove, and I think I’m neither. You want to know the truth?” Trump said Saturday. “I’m a man with common sense. And that’s what we need in this country is common sense.”
Trump said ultimately he overruled Bolton, who he said was also wrong about the invasion of Iraq in 2003. “I disagreed very much with John Bolton, his attitude on the Middle East and Iraq was going into Iraq. I think that was a big mistake. I think I’ve been proven right, but I’ve been against that forever.”
In a tweet, Iran’s foreign minister, Javad Zarif, said what he called the B-Team was moments away from trapping Trump into a war. “Prudence prevented it, but #EconomicTerrorism brings tension,” he said.
BOLTON: ‘NO HUNTING LICENSE’: While meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem over the weekend, Bolton said Iran should not mistake Trump’s restraint for permission to shoot down U.S. drones with impunity. “No one has granted them a hunting license in the Middle East,” Bolton said. “As President Trump said on Friday, our military is rebuilt, new, and ready to go.”
On CNN’s State of the Union, Vice President Mike Pence also warned that military action remains a real possibility, especially if Iran moves to develop nuclear arms. “Iran needs to understand that we will never allow them to obtain a nuclear weapon,” he told Jake Tapper. “Iran should not mistake restraint for a lack of resolve. All options remain on the table.”
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HAPPENING TODAY: Mark Esper’s first day as acting defense secretary begins at 7:30 this morning. TV crews are on hand to document his arrival at the Pentagon’s River Entrance, but he’s expected to say little more than “Good morning.” On Friday, the White House announced President Trump’s intention to nominate Esper to be his secretary of defense, along with Pentagon Comptroller David Norquist to be deputy secretary of defense and Under Secretary of the Army Ryan McCarthy to replace Esper as Army secretary.
ALSO TODAY: The Senate is scheduled to meet at 3 p.m. to resume consideration of the motion to proceed to S.1790, the National Defense Authorization Act for FY2020, with a vote expected around 5:30 p.m.
POMPEO IN THE GULF: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo added Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to his travels this week, which will also take him to India, Sri Lanka, Japan, and South Korea, as he seeks to build a “global coalition” to push back against Iran, which he called “the world’s largest state sponsor of terror.”
Speaking to reporters at Joint Base Andrews yesterday, Pompeo mocked Iran’s repeated claims that the U.S. Navy RQ-4A Global Hawk unmanned surveillance plane shot down Thursday had veered into Iranian airspace.
“First of all, you’ve seen the childlike map that Foreign Minister Zarif put out,” Pompeo said. “The contrast with the excellence and professionalism of America’s military and our intelligence services should leave no doubt in anyone’s mind about where that unarmed vehicle was. It was flying in international airspace.”
Zarif tweeted a series of maps and charts over the weekend that purported to show the flight path of the drone, as tracked by Iranian radar. “There can be no doubt about where the vessel was when it was brought down,” he said. Pompeo flatly rejected that. “We shouldn’t let the Iranians have one moment where any reporter would write that there was even a credible response to the data set that the Americans have put forward,” he said.
REACTION: RELIEF, ANXIETY: While Democrats largely praised the president for canceling the strike against Iran last week, they argue that while he made the right call it sent the wrong message. “It didn’t make sense the way the president has presented this,” Sen. Ben Cardin, D-Md., said on CNN. “He should have known from the beginning the military assessments on casualties and on likely response and escalation of the conflict.” Trump said he called off the attack against Iranian missile and radar sites after learning at the last minute it could result in as many as 150 Iranian casualties, which he concluded would not be “proportionate.”
“He should have known that before he started the mission. But he’s now given the impression that he was on again, off again, which shows weakness,” Cardin said.
Former Defense Secretary William Cohen, also on CNN, said the public airing of the division among Trump’s national security team, and the last-minute backing down, will be noticed in Pyongyang. “If I were Kim Jong Un, I would look at this example and say the president is probably bluffing with us as well. Fire and fury didn’t take place,” Cohen said. “We’re exchanging love letters now. I won’t take him on his word that he’ll rain down military power on my head if I test another missile.”
TRUMP SENDS ‘EXCELLENT’ LETTER TO KIM: Meanwhile, in an apparent effort to get the stalled nuclear talks with North Korea back on track, President Trump has sent a response to Kim Jong Un after getting what he called a “beautiful” letter from the North Korean leader earlier this month.
“After reading the letter, the Supreme Leader of the Party, the state and the armed forces said with satisfaction that the letter is of excellent content,” reported the state-run Korean Central News Agency, according to an English translation. “Appreciating the political judging faculty and extraordinary courage of President Trump, Kim Jong Un said that he would seriously contemplate the interesting content.”
SHANAHAN’S LAST ACT, MATTIS’ PARTING SHOT: Former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis was AWOL at his own hanging, so to speak. As his last official act before departing the building Friday, acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan presided over the installation of an official portrait in the Secretary for Defense corridor of Mattis, who resigned in protest in December.
The low-key affair was devoid of the usual ceremony and speeches, and the painting as seen in a tweet by ABC News Pentagon reporter Luis Martinez depicts Mattis in a resolute pose on the steps of the Pentagon, hand in pocket, and sporting a red tie.
The tie contains a subtle message. Careful observers will notice it is covered with the names of the signers of the Constitution. Mattis, as many people know, did not consider he served the president as much as he believed he owed his allegiance to the Constitution, to which he swore an oath to uphold, both as a military officer and the head of the Defense Department.
The Rundown
AP: Sources: US struck Iranian military computers this week
Washington Examiner: ‘America First’ allies say Trump saved presidency from John Bolton by scrapping Iran strike
CNN: India Sending Warships To The Middle East To Protect Shipping
Washington Examiner: Iran executes ex-defense ministry official on charges of spying for US
Washington Post: In an Afghan town retaken from the Taliban, a fragile hope to keep war at bay
New York Times: Turkey’s President Suffers Stinging Defeat in Istanbul Election Redo
CNN: A Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan Would Be A Bloody, Logistical Nightmare
Defense News: Lockheed hypes F-35′s upgrade plan as interest in ‘sixth-gen’ fighters grows
National Defense Magazine: Navy Shipbuilding Plan Could Soon Be Tossed Overboard
Navy Times: Widow Of Hero Inouye Christens Warship Bearing His Name
Calendar
MONDAY | JUNE 24
10 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion with Pakistani Ambassador to the United States Asad Majeed Khan and George Perkovich, vice president for studies at CEIP. carnegieendowment.org
11 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue N.W. Center for Strategic and International Studies 2019 ROK-U.S. Strategic Forum. www.csis.org
12:30 p.m. 529 14th St. N.W. National Press Club Headliners Luncheon with acting Defense Secretary Mark Esper. CANCELED. www.press.org/events
5:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue N.W. Center for Strategic and International Studies holds its 10th year Korea chair anniversary celebration with a discussion on the U.S.-Korea alliance and the road ahead on North Korea, with Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Korea and Japan Marc Knapper; retired Army Gen. Vincent Brooks, former commander of U.S. Forces Korea; former U.S. ambassador to the Republic of Korea Mark Lippert, Korea chair at CSIS; former U.S. ambassador to South Korea Kathleen Stephens, president and CEO of the Korea Economic Institute of America. www.csis.org
TUESDAY | JUNE 25
8 a.m. 2201 G Street N.W. Defense Writers Group breakfast with Dana Deasy, DoD’s Chief Information Officer. nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu
8:30 a.m. National Defense Industrial Association, the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, and the Air Force Association, and the Reserve Officers Association forum: “Can We Extend New START, Keep Arms Control, Stop Proliferation, and Modernize Our Nuclear Deterrence?”
Speakers: Susan Koch, research fellow at the National Defense University; and former Assistant Secretary of State for Verification, Compliance, and Implementation Paula DeSutter. www.afa.org/events
9:30 a.m. 14th and F Streets N.W. National Desert Storm War Memorial Association releases “Report to America: The Building of the National Desert Storm and Desert Shield Memorial 2011-2019.” Speakers: former White House press secretary Marlin Fitzwater; retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula, principal airstrike planner during Operation Desert Storm; retired U.S. ambassador to Kuwait Skip Gnehm; Joe Davis, communications and public affairs director at Veterans of Foreign Wars; Scott Stump, president and CEO of the National Desert Storm War Memorial Association.
3:30 p.m. The White House. President Trump awards the Medal of Honor to former Staff Sgt. David Bellavia for conspicuous gallantry in Iraq on November 10, 2004. www.whitehouse.gov
5 p.m. 1776 I Street N.W. Nuclear Threat Initiative discussion on “Weapons of Mass Destruction and Insider Threats: Who Would Do Such a Thing?” with Ronald Schouten, director of the Massachusetts General Hospital Law and Psychiatry Service and associate psychiatry professor at Harvard Medical School. www.tfaforms.com
WEDNESDAY | JUNE 26
Acting Defense Secretary Mark Esper attends a two-day meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels, Belgium, Wednesday and Thursday. www.nato.int
6:30 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arlington. Sgt. Major of the Army Daniel Dailey speaks at the Association of the U.S. Army’s Institute of Land Warfare breakfast at AUSA headquarters. www.ausa.org/events
7:30 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd., Arlington. National Defense Industrial Association discussion on “Congressional Perspectives” with Rep. Anthony Brown, D-Md., vice chair of the House Armed Services Committee, and retired Air Force Gen. Hawk Carlisle, president and CEO of NDIA.
8:30 a.m. 300 First Street S.E. National Defense Industrial Association, the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, the Air Force Association, and the Reserve Officers Associationforum on “The United States Air Force Role in Nuclear Modernization and Sustainment,” with Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein. www.afa.org/events
8:50 a.m. 900 South Orme St. Arlington. Institute for Defense and Government Advancement fourth annual Directed Energy Systems Summit, June 26-28. Speakers: Rep. Doug Lamborn, R-Colo., co-chair of the Congressional Directed Energy Caucus; Rep. Jim Langevin, D-R.I., co-chair of the Directed Energy Caucus; Gary Woltering, deputy chief of the Air Combat Command’s Advanced Weapons Systems Division. www.idga.org/events
11:30 a.m. 1667 K Street N.W. Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments discussion on “Revolution and Aftermath: Forging a New Strategy toward Iran,” with former defense undersecretary for policy Eric Edelman, and co-author Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. csbaonline.org/about/events
11:45 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Hudson Institute discussion, “Maritime Irregular Warfare: Preparing to Meet Hybrid Maritime Threats.” www.hudson.org/events
12 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “Defending the Arctic,” focusing on the recent release of the June 2019 Defense Department Arctic strategy and Russian and Chinese influences, with Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee’s Readiness and Management Support Subcommittee. www.csis.org
THURSDAY | JUNE 27
7:30 a.m. 555 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. Defense One Tech Summit. Speakers include Ellen Lord, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment; William Evanina, director of the national counterintelligence and security center, ODNI; Sue Gordon, principal deputy director of national intelligence, ODNI; and more. www.defenseone.com
12 p.m. 385 Russell. Charles Koch Institute and the Center for Strategic Studies discussion on the “Military Intervention Project,” which tracks the use of America’s force since the country’s founding, with Monica Duffy Toft, leader of the project and professor at Tufts University, and Emma Ashford, research fellow in defense and foreign policy at the Cato Institute. www.eventbrite.com
2:30 p.m. 1030 15th Street N.W. Atlantic Council and the NATO Defense College Foundation discussion on “NATO at 70: Refocusing for Change?” Speakers include former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright.
FRIDAY | JUNE 28
10:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue N.W. Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “Should the United States severely restrict Huawei’s business?” with Martijn Rasser, senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security’s Technology and National Security Program; Dan David, CIO of FG Alpha Management; Paul Triolo, practice head for geo-technology at the Eurasia Group; and Erin Ennis, senior vice president of the U.S.-China Business Council. www.csis.org
11 a.m. 2301 Constitution Avenue N.W. United States Institute of Peace discussion with Nobel Peace Prize laureate Nadia Murad on helping Iraq recover from ISIS, the plight of the Yazidi people, and stabilization and resilience in the country. Speakers: Kelley Currie, head of the State Department’s Office of Global Criminal Justice; Knox Thames, special adviser for religious minorities in the Near East and South/Central Asia at the State Department; Stanley Kao, representative of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office to the United States; Michael Yaffe, vice president of the USIP Middle East and Africa Center; and Sarhang Hamasaeed, director of the USIP Middle East Programs. www.usip.org/events
2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. Brookings Institution discussion with Gen. Paul Selva, vice chairman of the joint chiefs, on “The future of U.S. defense strategy.” www.brookings.edu/events
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Everybody was saying I’m a warmonger, and now they say I’m a dove, and I think I’m neither. You want to know the truth? I’m a man with common sense. And that’s what we need in this country is common sense.”
President Trump, speaking to reporters Saturday on the White House lawn.
