Electric bills are expected to rise over the next two decades, even without the Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed crackdown on power plants, the government’s energy analysis division said Tuesday.
The Annual Energy Outlook’s executive summary for 2015 says that in assessing electricity prices, which it says will rise during the 2013-2040 period, it does not include the proposed Clean Power Plan as a factor in price.
Republican lawmakers have criticized the EPA plan for the costs it will impose on consumers, citing a widely circulated report by NERA Consulting that shows compliance costs causing double-digit increases in electricity prices over the next 15 years.
The new 2015 energy outlook shows that costs are expected to rise 18 percent in the next two decades even without the Clean Power Plan. The assessment suggests that with additional regulatory pressures under the EPA rules, the cost impact would likely be higher.
Outside of the Clean Power Plan, electricity bills will rise from a variety of factors, including: “costs for electric power generation, transmission and distribution, coupled with relatively slow growth of electricity demand,” the outlook says.
These factors will “produce an 18 percent increase in the average retail price of electricity over the period from 2013 to 2040,” according to the reference case. Immediately after that it adds: “The [outlook] cases do not include the proposed Clean Power Plan.”
The energy outlook shows that one of the factors for increasing electricity bills is fuel costs. But there are also sizable costs from transmission and other grid devices required to connect renewables to the grid.
The energy outlook shows spending “on additional transmission and distribution capacity to connect to new renewable energy sources; improvements in the reliability and resiliency of the grid; enhancements to community aesthetics (underground lines); and smart grid construction” contribute to higher prices.
Even without assessing the effects of the Clean Power Plan on emissions, the case shows greenhouse gases will continue to decline as more of the nation’s power plants switch from coal to more natural gas to produce electricity.
