Tensions have escalated in the Horn of Africa after Somalia canceled all bilateral agreements with the United Arab Emirates on Monday. The cutting of ties has led the UAE to lose access to key ports and military bases on the Gulf of Aden near the Red Sea.
“We tried to deal with them diplomatically, but now we have decided to take action,” Somalia’s Foreign Minister Ali Omar said. “Diplomacy didn’t work, and so now the constitution has to work.”
The dispute was nominally over the UAE transfer of a Yemeni separatist from Somaliland, the breakaway territory in the north of Somalia, to Mogadishu. However, hinting at deeper motivations behind the recent diplomatic upheaval, Omar said the transfer “was one of the reasons we took this action. Not the reason, but one of the reasons.”
The UAE’s close relationship with Israel, relative to other Muslim countries, likely contributed to the split. Israel had been the first country to recognize Somaliland as an independent state in late December. Now, Mogadishu is looking for closer relations with Saudi Arabia and Egypt as it cuts ties with Abu Dhabi.
Israel’s move in December has shaken geopolitics in the Horn of Africa and put Somaliland back in the spotlight of D.C. policymakers, where the unofficial territory has lobbied in recent years for recognition by Washington. This raises two questions: What is Somaliland, and should the United States recognize it as an independent country?
What is Somaliland?
Somaliland is a separatist region in northern Somalia that has had de facto independence since 1991, after a brutal 10-year war of independence with Somalia. The conflict included the Isaaq Genocide, where Somalian dictator Siad Barre oversaw the killing of between 50,000 and 100,000 civilians in Somaliland.
Since then, the territory has had a relatively stable and democratic government. After a period of consolidation, including the suppression of several rebel movements, a democratic constitution was passed in a 2001 referendum. Afterward, Somaliland has had four democratic and peaceful transfers of power.
In the same period since Somaliland gained de facto independence, its neighbor, Somalia, has had a very different story. The country has been hobbled by a civil war that has lasted over three decades following the collapse of the Barre regime in 1991.
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After the U.S.-backed Ethiopian intervention in 2006 installed a transitional government, Mogadishu has struggled to find its footing. The official inauguration of the Federal Republic of Somalia in 2014 made little difference, as the Islamic terrorist group al-Shabaab continues to control large swathes of the country.
Both Somalia and Somaliland remain among the least developed countries in the world, with nominal GDP per capita of $766 and $912, respectively.
Why has Somaliland not been recognized?
After Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, many countries in the Middle East and Africa were outraged. The African Union stated it “firmly rejects any initiative or action aimed at recognizing Somaliland as an independent entity, recalling that Somaliland remains an integral part of the Federal Republic of Somalia.”
Notably, the head of the AU’s executive body is currently Djibouti, Somaliland’s neighbor that hosts U.S., Chinese, Japanese, and European military bases. The small country could risk losing its status as a key state on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Turkey also led a coalition of 21 countries denouncing the Israeli government for recognizing Somaliland. Turkey’s President Recep Erdoğan was the first major non-African leader to visit Somalia in 2011, after two decades.
“The recognition of parts of states constitutes a serious precedent and threatens international peace and security,” the joint statement reads. The precedent set for other secessionist movements is what unites countries across Africa and the Middle East over the Somaliland issue.
Moreover, the international recognition of Somaliland would worsen a crisis in a country already struggling to effectively demonstrate its sovereignty, even in regions much closer to Mogadishu. Recognition of Somaliland could encourage other groups within Somalia to rebel, such as the state of Puntland, which has refused to recognize the federal government of Somalia since 2024.
Beyond these issues of sovereignty, individual states also have their own reasons to side with Somalia. Istanbul seeks to continue a strong relationship with Mogadishu to bolster its access to the Red Sea. Meanwhile, Cairo hopes Somalia will serve as a valuable counterweight to Ethiopia, whose Renaissance Dam on the Nile River poses an existential threat to its northern neighbors.
The United States backed Israel against a United Nations resolution over the recognition.
“Israel has the same right to conduct diplomatic relations as any other sovereign state,” U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Tammy Bruce said. “Earlier this year, several countries, including members of this Council, made the unilateral decision to recognize a nonexistent Palestinian state. And yet, no emergency meeting was called to express this Council’s outrage.”
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But President Donald Trump has refused to follow Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in recognizing Somaliland. “We’re looking into that right now. Good question, actually,” he said about the territory. “And another complex one, as you know. But we’re working on that right now — Somaliland.”
Why do some think the US should recognize Somaliland?
Some in Washington are looking to change U.S. policy on Somaliland. A bill was introduced last June to recognize Somaliland in the House Foreign Affairs Committee, sponsored by Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA) and five other Republican congressmen.
“For more than three decades, Somaliland demonstrated the kind of governance, stability, and cooperation that America should support,” said Perry. “Foreign adversaries are on the march in Africa and around the globe, and it’s in our national interest to strengthen relationships with reliable partners who share our values and contribute to our security.”
“Recognizing Somaliland isn’t charity — it’s strategy. It aligns with America’s security interests and the “America First” doctrine by strengthening an ally that shares our values in a region vital to global trade and counterterrorism,” echoed Sen. Ted Cruz on X in early January.
Hudson Senior Fellow Joshua Meservey agrees that Washington should recognize Somaliland as an independent state. He pointed to Somaliland’s critical geopolitical position as a key reason to support the territory.
“It’s right on the Gulf of Aden, which essentially controls the southern approach to the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a major shipping choke point which goes up into the Red Sea, Suez Canal, Mediterranean,” Meservey told the Washington Examiner.
Meservey also emphasized that the United States is not the only great power with interests in the region. “The other issue here is that the U.S. has a base right in that area, actually in Djibouti, that is also where China put its first overseas military base,” he said. “The U.S. should maintain its position in Djibouti, but it also needs to have a hedge against its position deteriorating in Djibouti.”
The Hudson fellow is not alone in being worried over China’s large military presence in Djibouti. “We remain concerned by the Chinese presence in Djibouti,” a State Department spokesperson told the Washington Examiner.
Supporters of Somaliland also discount the concern that Somaliland’s recognition would encourage other separatist movements, pointing to a 2005 African Union report that said the territory’s case was “historically unique and self-justified in African political history.”
Another key issue for Somaliland advocates in Washington is Mogadishu’s ineffective governance. Some see the breakaway territory as an island of stability next to Somalia’s fractured state.
“The Mogadishu government is feckless, corrupt, and dysfunctional,” Meservey said. “It will get much more upset about Somaliland gaining recognition from another country than it does about al-Shabaab.”
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For the moment, however, the territory remains unrecognized, and U.S. movement on the issue is unlikely in the near future.
“This is an issue that’s very much within the bureaucracy,” Meservey told the Washington Examiner. “I just don’t think the bureaucracy has reached any sort of decision. Certainly not enough to push it to the president’s desk.”
