The October 2018 murder of dissident Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi was a disgraceful, immoral, and barbaric act. Acting on orders from the top of Saudi Arabia’s regime, officials lured Khashoggi to the Saudi consulate in Istanbul under false pretenses and then brutally murdered him.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bears personal responsibility for Khashoggi’s murder. This week’s conviction of five Saudis for Khashoggi’s murder is a whitewash noteworthy for its implausible exculpation of senior regime officials. The world must make it abundantly clear to the Saudi regime that no one is buying this effort to scapegoat a handful of officials.
Even so, American interests do not begin and end with one man’s murder, especially in a world replete with perpetual conflict and abusive governments that kill people unjustly every day. World politics require uneasy alliances and sometimes tenuous understandings with rulers and governments that range from mildly flawed to unseemly to pure evil. The United States’s relationship with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is an example of this. It continues to serve U.S. interests even if it must be carefully balanced and calibrated to avoid giving the impression of condoning Saudi brutality.
Despite his faults, especially this grave crime, Mohammed is saving lives in other areas. He has taken important steps already to reduce his nation’s extensive investments in exporting hard-line Salafist Islamic extremism. The U.S. has a vested interest in seeing such reforms continue apace rather than watching the Saudi regime go back to using religious schools and institutions to radicalize in ever-greater numbers. And, considering Saudi Arabia’s disproportionately young population, Mohammed’s efforts to diversify the Saudi economy could prove all the more vital. If the efforts to wean humanity from fossil fuels ever amount to anything in the coming decades, then a newly impoverished post-oil kingdom could easily devolve into the Islamic State 2.0, right in the spiritual and physical heart of the Middle East.
Beyond the ideological war for Riyadh’s future, the Saudi intelligence services and military have proven genuinely helpful in protecting the American homeland. They play a more important role in U.S. national security than most Americans appreciate. Saudi Arabia’s General Intelligence Presidency has been instrumental in infiltrating al Qaeda and ISIS, working closely with the CIA to neutralize threats to the West. While many of its operations remain secret, the GIP played the primary role in preventing a 2010 airliner bombing campaign against U.S. and British cities. The Saudis have been particularly helpful in destabilizing al Qaeda’s highly capable Arabian Peninsula affiliate. It is in the interest of American security that this cooperation continue.
Moreover, although largely untested, the Saudi military remains a deterrent against the constant and destabilizing threat of Iranian aggression in one of the world’s most sensitive regions. The Saudis, along with other Arab governments in the region, have taken positive steps to deescalate the threat of a major war centered around Israel’s existence. Iran, in contrast, continues to deploy paramilitary groups throughout the region, fomenting conflicts and intermittent terrorist violence in Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq, and Gaza.
Thanks to advances in fracking technology, the U.S. relies much less on its alliances in the Middle East than it once did. This is cause for gratitude, and it means that President Trump and other leaders can afford to be tough on Saudi leaders short of cutting them off. Yet Saudi Arabia remains a critical partner in keeping global energy supplies at a sufficiently low price. Those who profess concern at Vladimir Putin’s interference should be especially grateful for this Saudi role. It is the reason Russia, the world’s third-largest oil producer, has seen its status fall so far and so quickly. The aggressive global powerhouse that invaded Ukraine in 2014, when oil consistently hovered near $110 per barrel, finds itself in much-reduced circumstances at $65 per barrel in 2019.
The Saudi regime is built on an often toxic mixture of paranoia, feudalism, and arrogance. And, believe it or not, this is one more reason to keep them close. Were America to undercut Salman’s leadership publicly, the regime would find shelter almost immediately in Putin’s waiting embrace. The Russian leader wants nothing more than to replace the U.S. as the primary interlocutor with the Sunni Arab kingdoms. Newly beholden to Putin for his influence with Iran, the Sunni monarchies, led by Riyadh, would quickly agree to drive up oil prices so as to buffer Russia’s energy export and strengthen Putin’s hand militarily. This would gravely harm global security.
In response to this sham trial of Khashoggi’s murder, the Trump administration ought to exert significant private pressure on the Saudi regime to prevent such actions in the future. Nevertheless, Trump must not cut ties. American interests are best served by the continuation of the Saudi alliance. The world is a messy and complicated place, and abandonment of this warm if troubled diplomatic relationship will only strengthen world terrorism, Putin, and Iran.
