THE BIG QUESTION in tomorrow’s election is whether Democrats capture the Senate, the House, or both. But there are other contests and issues at stake that have gotten little press attention but are nonetheless important (or at least interesting). Some of these are actually eye-catching or may have implications for future elections. Here are 10 of these significant but not quite media-centric matters:
(1) If all goes well for Luther Strange tomorrow, he will wipe out a good chunk of Alabama’s political heritage. He’s the Republican candidate for lieutenant governor of the state. A Birmingham lawyer who’d never sought political office before, Strange knocked off George Wallace Jr. in the Republican primary. And he now faces Democrat Jim Folsom Jr., the son of former Gov. “Big” Jim Folsom–and governor himself from 1993 to 1995. In a Birmingham News poll taken last week, Strange led 50 percent to 39 percent. His advisers think Strange may also benefit from the coattails of Republican Gov. Bob Riley, who led his Democratic foe, Lucy Baxley, 59 percent to 31 percent, in the newspaper poll.
(2) Democrats are poised to win the top statewide races in New York in a landslide. So the question becomes: who gets the biggest percentage of the vote, Senator Hillary Clinton or gubernatorial candidate Eliot Spitzer? The standard of excellence was set by Democratic Sen. Chuck Schumer, who pulled 71 percent of the vote in winning reelection in 2004. Both Clinton and Spitzer have weak Republican opponents and may top 70 percent, though polls show them falling short. Who cares who gets the highest percentage? Well, Clinton and Spitzer do. Finishing second in New York won’t enhance Hillary’s expected bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008. Finishing as the biggest vote getter in a major state like New York will no doubt make Spitzer think about running for president some day. (Or rather, it will make him continue thinking about thinking about that.)
(3) Michael Steele, Maryland’s Republican lieutenant governor, has run a strong and clever race against Democrat Ben Cardin to replace retiring Democratic Senator Paul Sarbanes. Maryland is normally a blue state, but Steele, who is black, is trying to cut into the state’s large black (and overwhelmingly Democratic) community. He trails Cardin, a respected but dreary congressman, by a few percentage points. Steele’s ability to attract black voters, while holding on to Republican voters, matters a lot. Conservative political strategists regard his campaign as the best of this election cycle.
(4) Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger of California is running so far ahead of his Democratic challenger, Phil Angelides, that his seemingly insurmountable lead may depress election day turnout by discouraged Democrats. This sets up a political test for Schwarzenegger: does he have coattails? Great politicians manage to carry others to victory when they win big. And Republicans are a distinct minority in the California legislature who need all the help they can get to increase their numbers. Will Arnold do some heavy lifting and elect more Republican legislators in an environment that’s more conducive to Republican success than usual? We’ll find out tomorrow.
(5) Professional athletes sometimes make good candidates. Sometimes they don’t. Jack Kemp, the former quarterback for the Buffalo Bills and San Diego Chargers, turned out to be a terrific candidate for a House seat from New York and an influential figure in changing national economic policy. On the other hand, there’s former wide receiver Lynn Swann of the Pittsburgh Steelers. His race this year, as a Republican, for governor of Pennsylvania has not gone well. But there’s also Democrat Heath Shuler, who failed as a quarterback for the Washington Redskins and New Orleans Saints, but is favored to capture the House seat in North Carolina now held by Republican Charles Taylor. Shuler is not your average Democrat. Shuler is a bit of conservative who calls himself a born-again Christian and a pro-lifer. If he wins, it will be interesting to see if gets along with Nancy Pelosi.
(6) As recently as four years ago, Colorado was a reliably Republican state. Republicans held the governorship, both houses of the state legislature, both U.S. Senate seats, and 5 of the 7 U.S. House seats. In 2004, Democrats won the legislature, a Senate seat, and a House seat. Now it seems likely they’ll pick up the governorship this year–Democrat Bill Ritter has a solid lead–plus a House seat or two. Politics, of course, has always been dynamic and is frequently marked by regional differences. Georgia turned Republican in 2002 and 2004 while Colorado seems to be going the other way.
(7) There’s a particular worry among Republicans about losing House seats in the Northeast. It’s that once a seat there goes Democratic, it will stay Democratic. This is similar to the situation in the South when a Republican wins a House seat that had been held by a Democrat. That seat instantly becomes Republican turf for the foreseeable future. The reason for this phenomenon is no secret. The Northeast continues to trend Democratic, the South Republican.
(8) State constitutional amendments to bar same-sex marriage haven’t gotten much media attention this year, but they’re on the ballot in eight states: Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. So far, 15 states have passed such amendments. Referenda protecting traditional marriage are a perfect 15 for 15 so far. This means the American people appear to be speaking on this issue in a different fashion from state judges in Massachusetts and New Jersey–who ruled that their state constitutions mandated the legalization of gay unions.
In a novel use of the referendum process, voters will be asked to raise the minimum wage (or not raise it) in six states: Arizona, Ohio, Nevada, Missouri, Colorado, and Montana. What’s next? Calling on voters to decide what tax rates should be?
(9) Two of the best Republican House candidates in 2006 are in neighboring districts in suburban Chicago. David McSweeney, a successful businessman, is running against Democratic Representative Melissa Bean. He’s an unflinching conservative and Bean is one of the few vulnerable Democratic House members. She has a narrow lead. Next door Peter Roskam is seeking the seat of retiring Republican Congressman Henry Hyde, the great pro-life spokesman. Roskam, a social conservative with views to match Hyde’s, has been running slightly ahead of Democrat Tammy Duckworth, an Iraq veteran and double amputee. President Bush campaigned for McSweeney and Roskam, Bill Clinton campaigned for Bean and Duckworth.
(10) Politics isn’t fair. It’s an old, but true, saying. And many good Republican candidates are likely to be reminded of it if they lose this year. A common description of Republican challengers of Democratic House members is “good Republican candidate in a bad Republican year.” The flip side is that some poor Democratic candidates will get elected simply because it’s a Democratic year. In 1994, Republican candidates had that advantage. All it took for not-so-great Republicans to win was an “R” by their name on the ballot. Of course, 1994 was the best Republican year of the second half of the 20th century.
Fred Barnes is executive editor of The Weekly Standard.
