The killing of Jalisco cartel boss Nemesio Oseguera, who’s known as “El Mencho,” was a significant accomplishment for Mexico’s government. It’s unclear, however, if it will be followed by similar missions or a cartel civil war, though those aren’t mutually exclusive possible outcomes.
Prior to Osegura’s killing over the weekend, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel was widely considered to be the most powerful criminal organization in Mexico, and they have an “affinity for spectacular violence,” Duncan Wood, an expert with the Wilson Center, told the Washington Examiner.
In response to his killing, CJNG cartel members lit cars on fire and carried out attacks on Mexican authorities. Mexico’s security head, Omar García Harfuch, confirmed that more than two dozen guardsmen were killed in six separate attacks across the state of Jalisco.
The cartel is in the midst of significant upheaval that could play out in many different ways depending on whether there is a clear successor or possible infighting over who becomes the new top boss, and if this is a one-off mission for Mexican authorities or whether they will carry out additional operations.
“What we’ve seen in the past, of course, is that when you take out the more senior figures in organized crime groups, not only do you have the so called Hydra effect, where everybody’s fighting each other, but it tends to be younger [cartel members] who are really trying to take over, and they are much more prone to use violence than the older guys,” Wood said.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has a delicate balancing act to conduct. She has faced pressure from the Trump administration to do more to combat cartels and has to demonstrate she’s a willing partner with the United States, but she also must defend herself from critics who say she needs to stand up to the U.S. leader.
Henry Ziemer, an expert with the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said: “Sheinbaum, in taking out the largest, the highest profile drug kingpin remaining in the form of El Mencho, is I think sending a powerful signal. In my opinion, really, the test is can Mexico sustain an operational tempo against the cartels? Taking out El Mencho is good, but taking out several of his lieutenants is even better.”
He added: “Is this supposed to be just like a one-and-done signal of resolve, or is this part of a more comprehensive security strategy? And I hope it’s the last.”
The U.S. military provided intelligence to Mexican authorities for the operation that took out “El Mencho.”
World Cup hangs over Mexico
A major component of Mexico’s national security is focused on securing the upcoming World Cup games, which will be played in the country. Jalisco is supposed to host four of the World Cup games, as well as a qualifying playoff event in late March.
Ziemer said he does not think the cartels would attempt to carry out a mass casualty attack, which he said was “out of line with their tactics and their goals,” though he does believe “they’re going to see this as an opportunity to line their pockets with extortion.”
A top priority from the Trump administration has been to reduce drug smuggling into the U.S. and they have applied pressure on Latin and South American countries to contribute positively to that effort. That broad strategy has included but is not limited to working with China to reduce the access Mexican cartels have to fentanyl precursors, the strikes on purported drug boats allegedly heading for U.S. shores, and the capture and arrest of former Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro.
Washington’s pressure “is definitely lighting a fire [under the Sheinbaum government] to show gains,” Ziemer said. “It seems like the current status quo is Mexico leads the charge, and the U.S. provides the enabling environment. We provide the intelligence and the reconnaissance and the surveillance, and we pass that along to vetted units within Mexico, and I think that’s a pretty stable equilibrium.”
In order to give the president more options for how to combat the cartels, Trump has listed CJNG as a terrorist organization, among more than a dozen cartels and other groups.
TRUMP’S DEADLY BUT NECESSARY FIGHT AGAINST MEXICO’S CARTELS
The president has also discussed the possibility of authorizing the U.S. military to conduct unilateral airstrikes against cartel targets, which Sheinbaum quickly denounced and has done so on multiple occasions. She has let the CIA expand surveillance flights, deployed 10,000 troops to the U.S. border, and extradited dozens of senior cartel members to the United States.
Proving to the Trump administration that she is serious about combating the cartels, such as with the “El Mencho” mission, could go a long way in ensuring President Donald Trump does not take unilateral action, which she may be forced to condemn as a violation of the country’s sovereignty.
