In a 6-3 decision, the Supreme Court ruled correctly that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not allow the president to impose tariffs, striking down President Donald Trump’s far-reaching “liberation day” tariff regime. Unsurprisingly, the president was less than thrilled. “I’m ashamed of certain members of the court. Absolutely ashamed for not having the courage to do what’s right for our country,” he said.
What Trump failed to realize is the Supreme Court gave him and his party a gift, a rare crisp, clean off-ramp relieving Trump of responsibility for the most unpopular economic policy associated with his presidency.
Tariffs, at least the kind concocted and implemented by Trump, are a bad policy that is also illegal and wildly unpopular. Tariffs have consistently polled poorly with the broader electorate, are widely blamed for higher consumer prices, and disproportionately alienate independents and noncollege suburban voters Republicans cannot afford to lose in the midterm elections. 64% of voters disapprove of Trump’s tariffs generally, and 6-in-10 say they agree with the Supreme Court’s decision to strike them down on constitutional grounds. When asked if Trump’s tariffs raised or lowered prices on goods they had recently purchased, 66% said they raised prices, while only 5% said they lowered prices — a nightmare response for Republicans as they face an election cycle centered on the trouble of “affordability.”
The midterm elections are typically a bloodbath for the party in power, and this year is shaping up to continue that trend. Trump is currently underwater by 13 points, according to RealClearPolitics. He is down nearly 15 points on the economy and an abysmal 25 points on inflation.
It is still the economy, stupid. Trump is the leader of the free world not because of former President Biden’s senility or the fact that former Vice President Harris only had a few months to campaign. Inflation was way too high for the duration of the Biden years, and voters punished the Democrats. Similarly, it is quite likely that Trump would have bested Biden in 2020 if not for an ailing economy bogged down by draconian COVID-19 lockdowns and overspending that sent prices through the roof.
When the Supreme Court checked Trump’s authority on tariffs — like they checked Biden’s authority when he illegally attempted to implement a COVID vaccine mandate via OSHA, impose a nationwide eviction moratorium through the CDC, and forgive student loans using the 2003 HEROES Act — he could have taken the off-ramp. The only hope Republicans have is to cruise into the fall with a roaring economy. This was going to be difficult regardless, considering the less-than-stellar economic numbers for Q4 of 2025, but the president’s decision to double down on his quixotic and unnecessary global trade war may be the final nail in the coffin of the Trump 2.0 legislative agenda.
The president imposed a global 10% tariff following the Supreme Court’s ruling on Friday, then increased tariffs to 15% the next day. Aside from his pet problems, namely economic protectionism and border security, Trump is not an ideologue and has proven himself willing to pivot when a policy becomes politically damaging. He recently benched DHS Secretary Kristi Noem in favor of Tom Homan as the face of the ICE operation in Minnesota, and has changed course on everything from Obamacare to government shutdown politics when the GOP ended up getting the short end of the stick. Trump even walked back his support of COVID lockdowns and Faucism by summer 2020 and de-escalated a trade war with China during his first term.
TRUMP NEEDS CONGRESS IF HE WANTS TO KEEP HIS TARIFF REGIME
Trump’s inflexibility will almost certainly damage the party this November and continue to be an albatross around the neck of his own agenda, while failing to accomplish the administration’s goals. The new “section 122” tariffs are on equally dubious legal grounds and will likely be overturned by the courts, but not before raising prices, injecting volatility into the market, straining our relationships with allies, and driving down consumer confidence.
It doesn’t have to be this way, Mr. President.
Brady Leonard (@bradyleonard) is a writer, musician, and host of The No Gimmicks Podcast.
