Legislation that attempts to make good on President Donald Trump’s October demand to fix the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran is still facing obstacles, days before Trump is due to decide whether to issue sanctions waivers that would keep the agreement alive—or kill it.
Trump has repeatedly, begrudgingly waived sanctions lifted under the deal, only to be hit with a congressionally mandated deadline to report on whether Iran is meeting four deal-related conditions. He refused to certify one of those conditions in October, namely that continued sanctions relief to Iran is proportionate to the measures taken by Iran under the deal.
Upon announcing that decision, Trump warned that he would terminate the agreement if administration officials, working with Congress and European allies, fail to fix its flaws. Another 90-day certification deadline, along with a series of deadlines to continue waiving sanctions on Iran lifted under the deal, will occur in coming days.
Ahead of those deadlines, administration officials and top lawmakers have been negotiating a way to fix legislation (the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, or INARA) that gives Congress oversight of the 2015 nuclear deal. The rush of talks, said one source close to the negotiations, is an attempt to coalesce and show the president progress in the hope of dissuading him from reimposing sanctions.
“There was a White House attempt to rush to get to an agreement in order to tell the president confidently: ‘The Europeans, [Bob] Corker, [Ben] Cardin, [Tom] Cotton, they’re all coming together around an agreement,’” the source said. “‘It hasn’t been introduced or marked up or passed yet, because that takes time in Congress, but Mr. President, do not re-impose sanctions by not waiving them because we’re making progress.’”
Hawkish Republicans would want a legislative fix to address flaws that Trump mentioned in October, including the deal’s “near total silence” on Iran’s ballistic missile testing and the expiring restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activity. Trump officials also want to change the legislation’s recurring 90-day certification requirement, which one Iran watcher described to TWS as “statutory herpes.”
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson told the Associated Press on Friday that the INARA fix could come “as early as next week.” But disagreement among Republicans, and between Republicans and Democrats, presented an issue in October, and it still presents an issue today.
“Ultimately, it’s hard to envision something that gets to 60 votes that is strong enough for me,” Florida senator Marco Rubio told TWS on Tuesday. But, he said, “Maybe I’m wrong. I’ll give them the chance to come up with something.”
The leaders of the Senate Foreign Relations committee, Republican Bob Corker and Democrat Ben Cardin, have been discussing a legislative fix with the administration. Corker told TWS on Tuesday that it is unlikely that fix will be released “in the next few days.” But he said he could envision a bill that gets Democratic and Republican support, along with European backing.
“I can envision it,” Corker said. “We’re not quite there, but we’ve made a lot of progress.”
He advised issuing the sanctions waivers on the basis of that progress.
The fix would need the backing of Arkansas senator Tom Cotton, who is unlikely to support legislation that does not include tough ballistic missile provisions and a mechanism to reimpose sanctions if Iran attempts to take advantage of expiring nuclear restrictions. Cotton would prefer to negotiate for a few more weeks and improve the bill so that it addresses his concerns, said a source close to the senator, rather than push through a bad compromise agreement.
There’s also hesitance from Democrats, who are wary to agree to anything that could be seen as interfering with the nuclear deal, and who won’t act without the support of European allies.
“The Democrats will only be on board if the Europeans are on board, and the Europeans will only get on board if they know the Democrats are on board,” said a congressional source. “You have this weird chicken and the egg problem.”
Cardin has repeatedly told reporters that the executive branch has the authority it needs to enact what they’ve been asking Congress to do.
“Everything that the president is asking us to do, he has the power to do on his own,” he said last Wednesday. “He doesn’t need Congress. But we’re willing to be helpful.”
Supporters of a legislative solution counter that U.S. law will set the policy in stone.
“A legislative fix is important to ensure the sustainability of these changes into future years and future administrations when restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program expire and its missile program continues expanding,” said CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies Mark Dubowitz.
Even so, Dubowitz and others argue that introducing shoddy legislation in a rush is worse than skipping the legislative fix entirely.
“A statutory fix must put in restrictions on Iran’s capabilities under U.S. law with severe economic penalties if Iran were to breach these,” he said. “The statutory fix must also be permanent and not subject to the vagaries of American politics.”
