Daily on Energy: Trump punts on military strikes, oil prices plunge, and the start of CERAWeek

WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY: Good afternoon and happy Monday, readers – and happy World Bear Day! 🐻🍯 If you’re in the D.C. area, we hope you enjoyed the warm weather over the weekend. ☀️

In today’s newsletter, we are continuing to track the latest on the war in Iran. President Donald Trump has threatened strikes on Iran’s power plants but has since delayed any action, citing ongoing talks between the two countries. 🇮🇷🇺🇲

Keep reading to see how energy prices are reacting to the president’s announcement. 

Meanwhile, the Trump administration struck a deal with TotalEnergies to halt offshore wind projects and instead pay the company nearly $1 billion to shift toward investing in fossil fuels. 

We’ve got all the details below. ⬇️

Welcome to Daily on Energy, written by Washington Examiner energy and environment writers Callie Patteson (@CalliePatteson) and Maydeen Merino (@MaydeenMerino). Email cpatteson@washingtonexaminer dot com or mmerino@washingtonexaminer dot com for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email, and we’ll add you to our list.

TRUMP POSTPONES MILITARY STRIKES ON IRANIAN POWER PLANTS: President Donald Trump said that he would postpone military strikes against Iran’s power plants for five days, citing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. 

Trump over the weekend threatened to strike Iran’s power plants by Monday if the country did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of the waterway has resulted in global energy prices soaring. 

However, the president this morning wrote on Truth Social that in the last two days the U.S. and Iran have undergone “good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.”

Iran has said there had been no direct talks with the U.S. on this matter. Iran threatened to target power stations across the region if the U.S. strikes its power plants. The president has also left the door open for strikes against Iran, depending how the negotiations play out. 

PLUMMETING PRICES: The president’s announcement sent oil prices plunging early this morning, with international and domestic benchmarks dropping by more than 10%, below the $100 per barrel line. 

At around 2:30 EDT, Brent crude had fallen by 11.72%, selling at $99.04 per barrel, the lowest it’s been in nearly a week. West Texas Intermediate was also down by 10.91% and priced at $87.51 per barrel. 

Meanwhile, gasoline ticks up: Gasoline prices are inching closer and closer to $4 per gallon, with the national average sitting at $3.956 per gallon today, according to AAA. 

Three states – Arizona, Nevada, and Oregon – are seeing prices at the pump soar above $4.50 per gallon, while many stations in Washington and California are seeing prices hit higher than $5 per gallon. 

Analysts have warned that the dip in oil prices may not stop gas prices from climbing today, but could stanch future increases later in the week, especially if talks between the U.S. and Iran lower risks for vessels waiting to travel through the Strait of Hormuz. 

RELATED – INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WEIGHS RELEASING MORE OIL: To put further downward pressure on prices, the International Energy Agency is reportedly considering releasing more oil reserves and is speaking with member countries as to whether it is necessary. 

“If it is necessary, of course, we will do it. We look at the conditions, we will analyse, ​assess the markets and discuss with our member countries,” IEA executive director Fatih Birol said today, according to Reuters

Confidence from the U.S.: The Trump administration, however, does not believe that will be necessary. 

During an interview with CNBC today, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said it was “highly unlikely” that the U.S. will release more barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve than what has already been announced. The U.S. currently plans to release 172 million barrels. 

Wright did offer up more details on how quickly the barrels will be released, saying it will be around 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day. 

TRUMP KILLS TWO OFFSHORE WIND FARMS IN $1B DEAL: The Trump administration has successfully prevented two offshore wind farms off the East Coast from being built, paying TotalEnergies nearly $1 billion to reinvest in fossil fuels. 

The details: Interior Secretary Doug Burgum announced the agreement between the U.S. government and French energy company today, saying the administration would be reimbursing TotalEnergies $928 million for its winning bids in lease sales under the Biden administration. 

As part of the deal, TotalEnergies has agreed to abandon its two offshore wind projects in the Atlantic and pledged not to develop any new offshore wind projects in the U.S. The Trump administration plans to then cancel the leases for the two wind farms. 

The company is then expected to take the funds and reinvest in natural gas infrastructure, including in the development of Trains 1 to 4 of the Rio Grande liquefied natural gas plant, as well as shale gas production and the development of upstream conventional oil in the Gulf region. 

Read more from Callie here

ZELDIN SPEAKS ON RENEWABLE FUEL STANDARD TIMELINE: Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin said the agency aims to finalize Renewable Fuel Standard Set 2 requirements before the end of the month. 

RFS is a program under the Clean Air Act that requires a certain amount of renewable fuel to be blended into transportation fuel to reduce emissions. The EPA typically issues RFS rules in multi-year sets, for instance, the first “set rule” established standards for 2023 to 2025. The second set of standards will cover 2026 to 2027.  

Zeldin spoke at Agri-Pulse’s Agriculture and Food Policy Summit, where he said the agency aims not only to finalize RFS Set 2, but to immediately begin working on the third set. 

“We want to ensure that all of you have a certain level of certainty and predictability, where you know where we’re going by that next deadline that is in front of us, as opposed to just assuming or worrying with great frustration that the next deadline is going to come and go,” Zeldin said. 

The agency’s proposal in June would require a total of 24.02 billion Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) for 2026 and 24.46 billion for 2027, up from 22.33 billion for 2025. One RIN is equivalent to one ethanol-equivalent gallon of renewable fuel. Also, foreign biofuels and feedstocks will only get 50% of the credit given to domestic sources. 

THE ENERGY INDUSTRY’S SUPER BOWL – DAY ONE: Today marks the start of CERAWeek by S&P Global, the Super Bowl for the energy industry in the United States. Callie and Maydeen won’t be in Houston this week, but we will still be bringing you all the highlights of the annual conference from afar. Here’s what we’ve been watching today: 

Iran war’s damage to oil markets: Chevron CEO Mike Wirth warned today that oil supply disruptions driven by the war in Iran are causing greater damage to global markets than those seen in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

“We’ve got a lot of oil and gas now that is not flowing into the market,” Wirth said, according to Politico. “Physical supply chains don’t respond immediately, so even if the strait opens at some point, it will take time to rebuild inventories of the right grades of crude and the right types of fuel.”

Wright pushing producers: This morning, Energy Secretary Wright made a plea with domestic oil and gas producers to take advantage of high crude prices and increase their production levels. 

“Markets do what markets do,” he said. “Prices went up to send signals to everyone that could produce more, please produce more.” 

He insisted that the high prices have not yet hit a level that would drive “meaningful demand destruction.” 

As we touched on in Daily on Energy last week, there is some skepticism about whether oil and gas producers in the U.S. will significantly ramp up production, given uncertainty about how long the price gains will last, as analysts predict crude will be made in the $70s next year. 

HOTTEST DECADE ON RECORD: This past decade between 2015 and 2025 was the hottest decade on record, according to the United Nations weather agency. 

The World Meteorological Organization said that 2015 to 2025 were the hottest 11 years since records began in 1850. WMO said that 2025 was the second or third hottest year on record. 

“The State of the Global Climate is in a state of emergency. Planet Earth is being pushed beyond its limits. Every key climate indicator is flashing red,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement. 

“Humanity has just endured the eleven hottest years on record. When history repeats itself eleven times, it is no longer a coincidence. It is a call to act,” Guterres said. 

FLOODING IN HAWAII: Hawaii is experiencing its worst flooding in more than two decades, following back to back storms. 

Hawaii was hit by two Kona storms this month, which is when low pressure forms west to northwest of the islands, bringing rainfall and wind. This type of storm typically only happens during the cool season from November to March. 

AccuWeather said it is extremely rare for two Kona storms to occur within the same month on the island, especially in the span of a week. The first storm hit Hawaii from March 10 to 16 and then a second storm went through the islands March 19 to 22. 

The first storm was more extreme, bringing at least a foot of rainfall to every major island, Accuweather said. It added that from March 1 to 22 Honolulu recorded 13.52 inches of rain, compared to a historical monthly average of 2.36 inches. As of yesterday, this March is the fourth rainiest March on record. Take a look at photos of the flooding by USA Today here

A LOOK AHEAD 

March 23 – 24 The Independent Power Producers of New York’s 40th Annual Spring Conference is happening in Albany, New York.

March 23 – 27 CERAWeek by S&P Global will be taking place in Houstin, Texas. 

March 24 – 25 SolarPlus USA 2026 is being held in Dallas, Texas. 

March 24 – 25 Energy Storage USA 2026 is also taking place in Dallas. 

March 24 –26 The Air and Waste Management Association is holding a Data Centers Technical Program to analyze efforts to reduce adverse environmental and public health impacts from data centers. 

March 24 is National Agriculture Day.

March 25 The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas will be releasing its first quarterly energy survey of 2026. 

March 25 The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee will be holding a hearing to examine the state of the bulk power system. 

March 25 The House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Oversight and investigations is holding a hearing titled, “Unleashing America’s Mineral Potential: The Critical Mineral Commodity Supply Chain.” 

March 25 The House Appropriations Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies is holding an oversight hearing regarding the National Weather Service.

March 25 The House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources is holding a legislative hearing on a number of minerals and mining bills. 

March 26 The Conservative Energy Network is holding a webinar called “Made in America: The Case for Domestic Solar Manufacturing.” 

March 26 The Atlantic Council is hoisting an event on international climate cooperation, featuring former Environmental Protection agency administrator Gina McCarthy

RUNDOWN 

Washington Examiner Russia has been an early beneficiary of the US-Iran war in the Middle East

Politico ‘When will it end?’ The ‘elevator pitch’ oil executives and diplomats are making to the White House in Houston

Grist Can replacing Illinois’ toxic lead pipes lead to a workforce boon?

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