Starting 11: Redskins vs. Giants
1. Is this a must win game? Only if the Redskins have playoff aspirations. Their only legitimate hope is to win 10 games; with the Eagles beating Houston on Thursday, it’s highly, highly doubtful that nine wins would be good enough to win the NFC East; and it’s hard to imagine it being good enough for a Wild Card berth. So, win today or look toward 2011.
2. Will Ryan Torain play? He’s on the trip, but considering he was called a game-time decision, that was never a question. Sort of hard to make a game-time call on a guy who remains in Washington, don’t you think? I’d be mildly surprised if he does play, however. He’s missed three straight games with a hamstring injury and hasn’t practiced in full since; does that sound like someone ready to play? I just wonder what sort of pressure they’re applying to get him back. Coach Mike Shanahan made jokes on two straight days about Torain’s hamstring issues, subtle digs that drew laughs but no doubt were intended to send a message. It’s funny to hear someone talk about erring on the side of caution one moment and needling a guy about his injury the next.
3. Can the running game get going without him? Doubtful. James Davis did not look promising last week; that’s not necessarily his fault as he was rusty and playing behind a line that got pushed back too often. But will those issues be solved in a week? Granted, they won’t face the muscle they did last week, but they are playing a good front. And Keiland Williams still looks like a career backup; nothing wrong with that, but when you’re playing behind this line and with a must win game at hand, that’s not really what you need. Plus the Giants are pretty good vs. the run. DT Barry Cofield is solid in this area; he’ll be matched against RG Will Montgomery.
4. Can they win without the run? No. Next question.
5. Can they slow the pass rush? Not without running the ball with at least moderate success. If they’re in second- or third-and long all day, it could get ugly. The Redskins have a bad matchup at right tackle with Jammal Brown against Justin Tuck and Trent Williams against Osi Umenyiora. Brown’s mobility is bad; Tuck has speed. Williams has been inconsistent; he looks pretty good on a lot of plays, but is prone to mistakes. Thing is, it’s not just the ends who cause trouble. Twelve players have recorded sacks for New York. The Giants will blitz and overload sides. Because the Redskins line has no strong side – the left struggles with stunts and overloads while the right gets beat one-on-one. Williams sometimes appears to lack awareness on some action by the D-line and who might be coming his way.
6. How can the Redskins counter the pressure? If they’re not running well, we’ll see a steady diet of screens and short throws. Also, Donovan McNabb could be more in shotgun, just to give him a little more time to see what’s coming. They can use bootlegs, but if you’re not running the ball then it’s hard for that to work.
7. How banged up is New York’s offense? Very. Their starting O-Line is missing two starters while receivers Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith aren’t going to play either.
8. Is their offense still dangerous? To a degree, simply because of QB Eli Manning, who has now gone four games without a sack despite playing behind a makeshift line. Word from New York is that he’s making quicker decisions and that’s kept him out of bad spots. The running game is still solid with Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. But in the last two games, New York has managed 13 and 17 first downs, respectively. Both represent their lowest two totals of the season. And after a stretch in which they gained at least 400 yards in five of seven games, they’ve managed 208 (vs. Philly) and 361 (vs. Jacksonville in the past two. They showed life coming back vs. the Jaguars, but when you lose players such as Nicks and Smith, it’s hard to remain explosive.
9. What’s the plan? Load up eight in the box and force turnovers. If the Redskins can stop the run game, then they have a shot to win. It’s possible, too. Manning has thrown 16 interceptions this season and has had six games with two or more picks. (Of course, he also has 23 touchdown passes). Bradshaw has lost five fumbles. Stopping the run also means Maake Kemoeatu must play better than he did last week; got driven out by Minnesota’s center way too often. Rich Seubert has moved from guard to center out of necessity; if he wins this battle, forget it.
10. What else can make a difference? Punt returns. New York ranks 30th in the NFL defending the punt, allowing 13.0 yards per return and punter Matt Dodge has been inconsistent. Brandon Banks represents Washington’s best offense and can change field position, if not score, with every return. Will New York kick to him knowing this?
11. Who will win? At one point I thought about picking the Redskins, simply because New York is hurting. But the Redskins are as well with LaRon Landry and Carlos Rogers out and with questions about the running game it’s hard to pick in their favor. Plus, every time I think they might win in New York they don’t. Right now, the Redskins don’t have anything they can lean on during tough times. The defense isn’t playing nearly well enough, they can’t run and the passing game is predicated on the run and lacks the talent to overcome that deficiency. New York can rely on its pass rush and running game to power a win. Giants 23, Redskins 17.
