WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY: Good afternoon and happy Tuesday, readers! The astronauts on the Artemis II mission flew by the far side of the moon yesterday, breaking the record for the farthest humans have traveled into space. The crew was able to photograph the far side of the moon and witnessed a total solar eclipse. Take a look here at the photos. 🌔🚀✨
In other news, we continue to monitor developments in the war in Iran, as President Donald Trump’s threats have escalated. He has warned of significant military actions against Tehran if it does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by his deadline tonight. 🇺🇲🇮🇷
Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration is warning that the return to normal global oil flow could take months. We’ve got all the details for you below. 🛢️🛢️🛢️
Welcome to Daily on Energy, written by Washington Examiner energy and environment writers Callie Patteson (@CalliePatteson) and Maydeen Merino (@MaydeenMerino). Email cpatteson@washingtonexaminer dot com or mmerino@washingtonexaminer dot com for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email, and we’ll add you to our list.
TRUMP’S MIDDLE EAST DEADLINE: President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz is tonight at 8 p.m. He has warned that if the waterway remains closed, the U.S. will attack Iran’s power plants and bridges, and has gone further by threatening the end of an entire civilization.
“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will,” the president wrote on Truth Social this morning.
The president’s threats have been escalating over the past few days as the administration attempts to end a war that began over a month ago.
It has been reported that the U.S. has carried out strikes on Kharg Island this morning. Officials told the Wall Street Journal that over 50 targets were hit on the island. Kharg Island is Iran’s primary oil export terminal, handling nearly 90% of Iranian crude oil exports.
Vice President JD Vance, speaking in Budapest, said the strikes on the island do not represent a change in U.S. strategy.
“We were going to strike some military targets on Kharg Island, and I believe we have done so,” Vance said.
“We’re not going to strike energy and infrastructure targets until the Iranians either make a proposal that we can get behind or don’t make a proposal,” he added. “I don’t think the news in Kharg Island … represents a change in strategy, or represents any change from the President of the United States.”
IRAN WAR ENERGY CRISIS GREATER THAN THOSE SEEN IN 1973, 1979, AND 2022 COMBINED, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS: The chief of the International Energy Agency is sounding the alarm that the current energy crisis brought on by the Iran war is worse than any seen in recent history – separately and combined.
“If we look at the three major oil and gas crises of the past—those of 1973, 1979, and 2022—the current crisis is more severe than all of them combined,” IEA executive director Fatih Birol said in a recent interview with French news outlet Le Figaro, according to a translation. “We are facing a massive energy shock—one that combines an oil shock, a gas shock, and a food shock. It represents a major upheaval for the global economy.”
Birol pointed out that the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are not just affecting global oil markets, but are also sending shockwaves through the fertilizer, petrochemical, and helium industries.
He warned that the global economy as a whole will suffer as a result of the war, and it will become increasingly difficult for developing countries to grow their economies, as their debt will likely soar.
“That is why I am pessimistic today,” Birol said. “None of this stems from energy itself, but rather from geopolitics.”
PRICE WATCH: Oil prices continued to rise today as the markets wait to see whether Trump will stick to his 8 p.m. deadline for a ceasefire deal, or delay it once again.
International benchmark Brent Crude was up slightly by 0.27%, selling at $110.07 per barrel just after 3 p.m. EDT. West Texas Intermediate had also increased by 2.69% and was priced at $115.43 per barrel.
As of this afternoon, however, dated Brent – which refers to physical cargoes of crude that have been assigned specific delivery dates – soared to its highest level on record. Earlier today, Platts estimated that dated Brent hits $144.42 per barrel
Gasoline is also steadily ticking upward, with the national average price for gas at $4.14 per gallon, according to AAA. Diesel remains below 2022 record levels, for now, at $5.646 per gallon.
ZEROING IN ON COLORADO: Speaking of prices, while Callie was in northern Colorado last week, she took some time to chat with motorists as they pumped their gas to find out what they really think about the surging prices.
How much prices are up: In Colorado, the fourth-largest oil-producing state, the average price of gasoline sat at around $3.77 a gallon as of Monday. While this is lower than the national average, it’s still significantly up from the price of around $2.72 seen in early February.
Twenty-eight year-old Austin M. from Loveland, Colorado, told Callie that it “sucks” that he’s having to pay so much more for gasoline, saying that high fuel prices were part of the reason why he recently shut down his own trucking company.
Kristy Hutson, 41, from Aurora, Colorado, said it previously cost $70 to fill up her work truck’s tank every day. It is now around $110. It also costs Hutson roughly $70 to fill her personal car, up from around $40.
Who’s to blame: Some drivers are pointing fingers directly at Trump, while others simply say it’s the government or oil companies at fault.
“Everybody says it’s the Iran wars and whatnot, and tariffs and all this, I don’t know,” Austin said. “I just really think it’s just … them playing games with everybody. Just because they can charge whatever they really want, and you have to pay it.”
Some say it’s worth it: While no one is happy about the higher prices, more conservative voters appear to be more accepting of the hikes for Trump’s broader agenda.
“I understand that our fuel prices have escalated. But guess what didn’t escalate? My interest rate on my mortgage went down 2.5% this year,” said Christina Forman, a truck driver and Trump supporter from Boulder County.
Read more from Callie and see exclusive photos from the Examiner’s Graeme Jennings here.
EIA WARNS RESTORATION OF GLOBAL OIL FLOWS WILL TAKE MONTHS: The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration is warning that the process to return to normal oil flows will take months, breaking from the Trump administration’s view that flows would resume and prices would drop immediately after the Strait of Hormuz is opened.
The details: The EIA estimated in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook today that Brent crude will average around $96 per barrel at the end of 2026 before dropping to just $76 per barrel next year. In 2025, Brent averaged around $69 per barrel.
The agency also projected that global oil production shut-ins caused by the Iran war will grow this month to 9.1 million barrels per day. Under the assumption that the war does not last past April, and flows through the strait resume, the EIA said production shut-ins should fall to 6.7 million barrels per day in May and ultimately return “close” to levels seen before the war later this year.
Key quote: “…[J]ust as we had never before seen the strait close, we’ve never seen it reopen,” EIA administrator Tristan Abbey said. “What exactly that looks like remains to be seen. Full restoration of flows will take months. Our modeling indicates that fuel prices will continue to rise until these variables resolve.”
You can find the full energy outlook here.
CHINA LOOKS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP ENERGY SYSTEMS: Chinese President Xi Jinping has requested the rapid development of new energy systems, Reuters reported.
Xi highlighted hydropower development and ecological protection, according to state broadcaster CCTV. He also called for the expansion of nuclear power.
He noted that China’s coal power remains vital to the country’s energy system, but they must continue to develop renewable energy sources.
“A greener, more diversified and resilient new energy system will provide a strong guarantee for China’s energy security and economic development,” Xi said in his remarks to CCTV.
Xi’s comments come as global energy prices soar due to the war in the Middle East, but he did not specifically mention the conflict.
PARIS AGREEMENT GLOBAL WARMING GOAL ‘NO LONGER PLAUSIBLE’, RESEARCH SAYS: There is no way for the world to achieve the Paris Agreement’s ambitious goal to limit global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, a new report published by Resources for the Future has found.
In fact, the report published today also projects that limiting temperature rises to just 2°C will be “extremely challenging,” given current policy and energy challenges.
“Global leaders have increasingly focused on energy security and affordability, relegating climate change to a second-tier priority (or lower) in many cases,” the report reads.
This has been compounded by surging electricity demand, the authors noted, pointing out that global energy-related CO2 emissions soared past 38,000 million metric tons in 2024. Peak emissions aren’t expected until the early 2030s, with some forecasting that emissions won’t fall until 2050.
The report pointed out that world power generation roughly doubled between 2000 and 2024, with levels projected to double again over the next 25 years. But expectations are that this next phase of growth will be led by wind and solar power, which would help lower overall emissions in the sector.
While renewables are projected to lead electricity generation globally, the report’s authors emphasized that CO2 emissions are “far off track” from international targets due to the continued consumption of fossil fuels.
You can read the full report here.
ICYMI – POLESTAR’S LARGEST EV TO BE MADE IN AMERICA: The Swedish-based electric vehicle company Polestar said it would make the Polestar 3 flagship electric SUV exclusively in the U.S., Inside EVs reported.
Polestar 3 is currently built in China and at Volvo’s Ridgeville plant in South Carolina, but the company plans to end Chinese production by the end of the year. The U.S. currently has significant tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and parts.
Polestar said last week that it plans to consolidate manufacturing of Polestar 3 to “increase efficiencies.”
RUNDOWN
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