Thirty-eight days after it began, Operation Epic Fury paused and perhaps ended with a ceasefire. The United States-Israel military campaign did not topple the Islamic Republic, as some hoped, but it should still be regarded as a success.
Critics of President Donald Trump would have you think otherwise. Some commentators have labeled it a “failure,” while others have claimed it is “pretty close to the worst possible ending.” Some have even asserted that “Trump has just lost a war to Iran,” likening it to the “Suez debacle” of 1956, in which British Prime Minister Antony Eden was forced to resign after sending troops under false pretenses to the Middle East in a bid to topple the Egyptian government of Gamal Abdel Nasser.
The comparison is bunk. Operation Epic Fury showcased America’s military might and achieved many of its goals at an acceptable cost. On March 2, Trump outlined the war’s objectives: Destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities and “capacity to produce new ones,” annihilate Iran’s navy, ensure that the regime can’t obtain nuclear weapons, and prevent Tehran from arming, directing, and funding “terrorist armies outside of their borders.” A little more than a month later, most of these goals have been achieved.
The Trump administration sought to end the Islamic Republic’s ability to project power outside of its borders, and Iran’s ability to wage war has indeed been diminished. Its defense industrial base is in shambles. As Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, noted in an April 8 press conference, more than 90% of Iran’s regular fleet has been destroyed, and 150 of its ships now lie at the bottom of the ocean. Ninety percent of Iran’s weapons factories were attacked. Eighty percent of its nuclear industrial base was destroyed. Eighty percent of the regime’s air defenses are destroyed. Ninety-five percent of their naval mines are now gone. Eighty percent of their ballistic missile facilities have been destroyed, as well as “every factory” that produced guidance systems for drones.
Iran’s ability to “reconstitute” its defense industrial base is gone for years to come. This is not what a Suez defeat looks like, and the U.S. and Israel achieved both quickly and with relatively tiny losses of 13 servicemembers killed. Iran, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said, has been rendered “combat ineffective.”
The war’s opening salvo was the largest decapitation strike in the history of warfare, entirely eliminating the upper caste of Iran’s political and military leadership, including the longest-serving dictator of the past half-century, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Iran’s allies, China and Russia, have now seen U.S. capabilities on full display. After years of erosion under President Joe Biden, America’s deterrence in the region has been restored. Our ability to use military force with precision and judiciousness can no longer be doubted.
Other questions loom. Does military success translate into diplomatic and strategic advantage? The terms of the ceasefire are disputed and tenuous, and the White House says the 10-point plan Iran claims as the one Trump accepted as a reasonable basis for negotiation is different from the one they discussed and is absurd in the bargain. Iran always breaks its promises and, on this occasion, seems to be breaking faith even before any promises have been made. The Iranian regime says the ceasefire deal includes renewed nuclear enrichment, which is absurd on its face, and for the U.S. to leave the Middle East.
REPUBLICANS SHOULD END THE DEMOCRATS’ SHUTDOWN THREAT
With a start like this, the ceasefire does not look like the end of the war. Caine assured the world in his press conference that the U.S. military could return to hostilities with the same effectiveness if it becomes necessary. In the intervening two weeks, the U.S. will deploy additional military forces into the Gulf region to buttress this threat.
The Trump administration explicitly rejected the idea that Epic Fury’s chief goal was to topple the regime but made it plain that regime collapse would be a highly acceptable side benefit. The regime remains and will be a problem for the U.S. as long as it holds power, diminished though that power may be.
