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QUOTE OF THE WEEK: Robin Mills, a non-resident fellow with the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia, warned this week that damage to the liquefied natural gas facilities in Qatar is the “most serious, long term, permanent damage” that has happened in the Iran war so far, as the country had been seeking to expand its LNG capacity. 

“The country is also meant to be in the middle of a major expansion project, just before the war,” Mills said. “So their question for them is, what do they prioritize? Do they try to bring back what was damaged or do they try to finish the expansion project because some of those will be competing for the same scarce bits of kit.”

GAS PRICES SAW LARGEST MONTHLY INCREASE IN MARCH SINCE 1967: Inflation soared last month, with gasoline prices seeing the largest monthly jump in nearly 60 years. 

The details: The Bureau of Labor Statistics released an update to its Consumer Price Index this morning, revealing that inflation rose to 3.3% for the year ending in March – the highest it’s been since 2024.

Due to the weeks-long disruptions of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, gasoline and fuel oil saw the largest monthly increases. Specifically, gasoline prices rose by 21.2% month-over-month and by 18.9% for the year ending in March. Fuel oil was up 44.2% on the year, roughly 30.7% higher than in February. 

It’s worth pointing out that the transportation industry was not hit as hard by inflation as other sectors. For the year ending in March, transportation services costs went up by 4.1%. Month-over-month, it increased by 0.6%. But, as airlines and other companies move to implement surcharges on baggage fees and other products over fuel price hikes, those prices could significantly increase during April. 

Some reaction: While the ceasefire agreed to this week might offer some short-term relief on the oil and gas front, analysts are warning that prices will continue to rise. 

“This combination of market shocks, the potential for prolonged disruption, and shifting expectations creates the conditions for higher prices to spread, especially as initial energy cost increases ripple through goods and services across the economy,” Competitive Enterprise Institute finance and monetary policy analyst Steve Swedberg said. “What began as a temporary jump in gasoline prices could end up more permanently raising prices for groceries, rent, and everyday goods.” 

EUROPEAN AIRLINE INDUSTRY WARNS OF ‘SYSTEMIC’ FUEL SHORTAGES: Speaking of the transportation industry, European airlines could see significant fuel shortages in just a matter of weeks if the Strait of Hormuz does not fully reopen. 

The details: Airports Council International Europe, an international association that represents hundreds of airports across Europe, has reportedly said the region faces “systemic” shortages of jet fuel in just a few short weeks, according to a letter obtained by the Financial Times. 

The letter, sent to European Union transport commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas, reveals that jet fuel reserves are running low with demand from military activity also tightening airlines’ supplies. 

“If the passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume in any significant and stable way within the next three weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU,” the letter reportedly read.

The association warned that the shortage could have significant economic consequences, coinciding with peak summer travel, on which so many European countries rely. 

ACI Europe is asking the EU to monitor the supply of jet fuel in order to coordinate an industry response to the shortages. According to the industry group, there is no EU-wide mapping and assessment for jet-fuel production and availability. 

THE HITS TO GULF ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE KEEP COMING: French energy major TotalEnergies had shut down another one of its Gulf refineries that it co-owns with Saudi Arabia’s Saudi Aramco after the facility took on significant damage this week. 

The details: The site, the Saudi Aramco Total Refining and Petrochemical Co., sustained damage to two of its processing trains earlier in the week, according to the Wall Street Journal. There were no casualties reported and the units were shuttered as a safety precaution. TotalEnergies and Saudi Aramco are currently assessing the long-term effects of the incident on the facilities’ refining operations. 

As of Friday, TotalEnergies has shut down energy production in Qatar, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia – amounting to around 15% of the company’s total output, according to the WSJ. 

Why this matters: While a handful of vessels have been able to make it through the Strait of Hormuz since Tuesday, transit is nowhere near the pre-war levels. Plus, the damage caused to nearby energy infrastructure in the Gulf is widely believed to have an even greater effect on whether normal oil flows can resume. If refineries are unable to return to pre-war outputs, there is little the industry can do other than wait. 

LATEST ON PRICES: Oil prices remained fairly steady today as traders wait to see how negotiations between the U.S. and Iran will unfold over the weekend. 

Just after 3 p.m. EDT, both domestic and international benchmarks were down by just over 1%. West Texas Intermediate had fallen by 1.71% and was priced at $96.20 per barrel. Similarly, Brent Crude dropped 1.32% and was selling at $94.65 per barrel. 

How about gasoline? Relief from the ceasefire agreement this week has finally made its way to the pumps, as AAA is now reporting the national average price of gasoline is down compared to yesterday. As of Friday, the national average for gas was $4.153 per gallon. Diesel was also slightly down to $5.683 per gallon. 

‘DRILL, BABY, DRILL’ UPDATE: The number of active oil and gas drilling rigs in the U.S. fell this week, bringing the total to 545. Data released by Baker Hughes this afternoon revealed that the total tally fell by three rigs this week, and is 38 fewer than this time last year. 

Broken down further, Baker Hughes found that the number of land rigs fell by six this week, and three offshore rigs were added to the count. There was no change to the number of oil rigs operating in the U.S., while there are three fewer gas rigs. 

CUBAN PRESIDENT SAYS HE WON’T STEP DOWN: Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel said he does not plan on stepping down despite the Trump administration’s ongoing pressure. 

Díaz-Canel was asked in an interview with NBC if he would be willing to step down to save his country, which has been dealing with an energy and humanitarian crisis in the last few months. 

“In Cuba, the people who are in leadership positions are not elected by the U.S. government, and they don’t have a mandate from the U.S. government. We have a free sovereign state, a free state. We have self-determination and independence, and we are not subjected to the designs of the United States,” Díaz-Canel said.

“Stepping down is not part of our vocabulary,” he added.

The U.S. has blocked fuel from entering the island in the last few months as part of the administration’s efforts to push for a regime change. Trump has also threatened to take the country. 

The fuel shortages have caused rolling blackouts and high prices for food and transportation. Russia last month shipped fuel to the island and has expressed solidarity with Cuba. 

The full interview will be released on Sunday on NBC’s Meet the Press. 

EU AND US APPROACH CRITICAL MINERALS DEAL: The European Union and the U.S. are approaching an agreement on critical minerals as the two sides look to reduce reliance on Chinese minerals. 

The deal could provide incentives such as minimum prices, which give non-Chinese suppliers an advantage, according to a draft seen by Bloomberg. The EU and U.S. would also work together on standards, investments, joint projects, and supply disruptions caused by China. 

They will also be seeking for other “like-minded partners” to join the initiative, it added. The U.S. has been exploring ways to partner with allied countries to diversify the critical mineral supply chain. The administration has made deals with Japan, Australia, and other allied countries on critical minerals. 

INDIA LOOKS TO COAL TO OFFSET FUEL COST: India joins many other countries in Asia that are turning to coal-fired plants for power as the war in Iran has squeezed natural gas supply. 

About 15 gigawatts of coal capacity typically is scheduled for temporary shutdown between April and June but the government has decided for two-thirds of those plants to remain running until July, Bloomberg reports. 

The publication reported that Piyush Singh, additional secretary in the power ministry, said at a briefing in New Delhi that fuel prices continue to increase as gas flows remain halted.

Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and the Philippines have decided to increase the use of coal power due to the shortage in natural gas supply. 

RUNDOWN 

Washington Examiner Iran war disrupts global aluminum supply, prolonging shortages for months

E&E News Turning Point turbocharged this Arizona utility race

The Associated Press Croatian fishermen feel the strain after Iran war ramps up fuel prices