As the smoke begins to clear from the high-intensity phase of Operation Epic Fury, Washington stands at a familiar, dangerous crossroads. A fragile two-week ceasefire took hold on April 8, and this week’s negotiations in Islamabad are being framed by the Trump administration as a historic path toward stability.

But we must be clear-eyed about the reality on the ground this April: Any diplomatic deal that leaves the current power structure in Tehran intact is not a peace plan — it is a lifeline for a drowning regime that will inevitably strike back.