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DEJA VU FOR THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ: The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was short-lived, as both the United States and Iran have accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement, leaving the waterway effectively shut once again. 

The details: Iranian officials announced that the strait was closed again on Friday evening, just hours before Iran launched attacks on multiple vessels attempting to pass through the strait. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively under a double blockade from Tehran and Washington, with U.S. forces blocking Iranian ports. 

On Sunday, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. attacked and seized an Iranian-flagged vessel attempting to run its blockade. 

“Today, an Iranian-flagged cargo ship named TOUSKA, nearly 900 feet long and weighing almost as much as an aircraft carrier, tried to get past our Naval Blockade, and it did not go well for them,” Trump said, adding that the U.S. Navy stopped the ship by “blowing a hole in the engine room.” 

Earlier today, the president escalated his threats against Iran, saying “lots of bombs [will] start going off” if they fail to reach a peace agreement by Wednesday. 

Kuwait declares force majeure: Kuwait Petroleum Corp. told customers Friday that it was declaring force majeure on shipments of crude oil and refined products because of the blockade. 

Kuwait’s output is now at levels it fell to in the early 1990s after the Iraqi invasion, according to Bloomberg’s report. But Kuwaiti officials have said they could ramp production back up to where it was in a matter of months. 

IS WRIGHT RIGHT? As we approach the two-month anniversary of the start of the war, it has become clear that the Trump administration doesn’t know how long gasoline prices will remain above $3 a gallon, with the president and his energy secretary delivering two different messages. 

The hedged view: Yesterday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright admitted that motorists may not see prices dip below $3 a gallon until next year. 

“I don’t know,” he said. “That could happen later this year. That might not happen until next year. But prices have likely peaked.” 

Wright did say that gas prices will fall significantly once the war ends. But there are other contributing factors, such as increased seasonal demand and new biofuel blending standards that will likely put upward pressure on prices.

Midterm optimism: Trump rejected Wright’s prediction this morning, telling The Hill that gas prices will fall below $3 a gallon as soon as the conflict ends. 

“No, I think he’s wrong on that,” Trump said. “Totally wrong.” 

Trump previously said gas prices could be higher by the time of the midterm elections, but has backtracked in recent days. Republicans already face an uphill battle to keep the majority in the House, and there is growing speculation that surging gasoline prices could help Democrats also cinch the Senate. 

Other administration officials have begun to echo Trump’s more hopeful outlook, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicting prices will fall sometime this summer. 

Wright, however, has stood firm in his hedged view in recent days, telling CEOs at Semafor’s World Economy Summit last week that summer was an “aggressive time frame.”

Where prices stand now: As of Monday, the national average price of gasoline remained right around the $4 line, according to AAA. GasBuddy, another petroleum analysis group, has reported the national average at $3.97 per gallon. 

GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan warned that the dip in prices seen over the last week may be “fleeting” as oil prices rose again over the weekend. 

Just after 3 p.m. EDT, international and domestic benchmarks were up by around 5%. Brent crude had increased by 5.53% and was selling at $95.38 per barrel. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate jumped by 5.70% and was priced at $87.30 per barrel. 

“With global oil flows remaining at risk, renewed volatility is taking hold, and the continued back-and-forth is making any lasting resolution increasingly fragile,” De Haan said. “As a result, gasoline prices are likely to rise again in the days ahead, with diesel expected to follow if disruptions persist, and many of the states that exhibit price cycling could see increases in the next 24-48 hours.”

EUROPE RATIONING JET FUEL? The European Union is set to roll out measures to effectively ration jet fuel across the continent, the latest in the fallout from the Iran conflict for the transportation sector and the broader economy. 

The European Commission is expected announce the proposal as early as this week, Bloomberg reports. 

About 20% of the bloc’s jet fuel would normally come via the Strait of Hormuz. 

Changes could include tinkering with airport slots and flight cancellations in the event of shortages, as well as where jets fuel up. 

SOLAR LEADS IN GLOBAL ENERGY GROWTH FOR FIRST TIME: For the first time in history, solar power was the largest contributor to energy supply growth worldwide in 2025, according to the International Energy Agency. 

The details: The Paris-based organization said in its annual Global Energy Review this morning that solar power added more than 25% of new energy supply last year. This is the first time that a modern renewable energy resource has led the global primary energy supply growth, surpassing traditional fossil fuels. 

Natural gas had the second largest share of global supply growth, accounting for around 17%. Overall, renewable and nuclear energy account for nearly 60% of all growth in energy demand. 

Key quote: “In today’s rapidly shifting landscape, countries that prioritise resilience and diversification will be best placed to manage volatility and deliver secure and affordable energy in the years ahead,” IEA chief Fatih Birol said. 

ENVIRONMENTALISTS SUE TO STOP BP GULF OF MEXICO DEEPWATER PROJECT: Environmentalists have sued to reverse the Trump administration’s approval of a BP ultra-deepwater drilling project in the Gulf of Mexico, renamed the Gulf of America by Trump. 

The groups, including the Center for Biological Diversity and the Sierra Club, filed a lawsuit in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit against the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and the Department of the Interior, arguing that BP’s proposal lacked required information and does not demonstrate that it can safely drill as far as six miles below the sea floor. They noted that the drilling depth will be greater than that of Deepwater Horizon, which famously created the largest marine oil spill in history. 

BP said in a statement that the lawsuit was “unfounded” and that it “singles out bp in an apparent broader effort to block not only the Kaskida project but all future offshore oil and gas development in the US.” 

Charlotte Taylor, the deputy communications director for Interior, said that the agency’s “world-class regulatory framework ensures that American energy is produced responsibly and efficiently, leading the global industry on safety and environmental stewardship.”

“The Kaskida platform represents a major step forward, unlocking more than 275 million barrels of previously unrecoverable oil in the Gulf of America,” the statement added.

A LOOK AHEAD:

April 20 – 21 Hawai’i Governor Josh Green is hosting the Western Governors’ Association’s annual policy forum on Maui, focusing on disaster management and recovery. 

April 20 – 26 is DC Climate Week. 

April 20 The House Rules committee is considering several pieces of legislation, including one that seeks to amend the Endangered Species Act to streamline the permitting process. 

April 20 Interior Secretary Doug Burgum is scheduled to appear before the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies to discuss Interior’s Fiscal Year 2027 budget. 

April 21 – 23 The Defense Logistics Agency’s Worldwide Energy event is taking place in Arlington, Virginia.  

April 21 The Washington Legal Foundation is holding a webinar on the Environmental Protection Agency’s new “compliance first” enforcement policy. 

April 21 The House Natural Resources Committee is holding a markup hearing on a number of critical minerals, leasing, and fishing-related bills. 

April 21 Energy Secretary Chris Wright will appear before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources committee for a hearing on the Department of Energy’s Fiscal Year 2027 budget. 

April 22 is Earth Day 🌎

April 22 The House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Federal Lands is holding an oversight hearing titled, “EXPLORE American250: Enhancing Accessibility at our National Parks and Public Lands.” 

April 22 The House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy is holding an oversight hearing on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. 

April 22 The House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Environment is holding a hearing analysing how environmental laws affect critical material supply chains, national security and economic growth.

April 22 Energy Secretary Wright will also appear before the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development for a budget hearing. 

April 22 Interior Secretary Burgum is also scheduled to appear before the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Department of the Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies. 

April 25 The White House Correspondents’ Dinner will be held in Washington, D.C., with President Donald Trump attending for the first time. 

RUNDOWN 

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