So, whether it’s Calvert or Young who, in the June 2 all-party primary, wins a spot on the November ballot against a Democratic candidate, they’re favored to win. Even in a decidedly unfriendly political environment for Republicans, with Trump’s approval ratings falling amid spiking gas prices and inflation more broadly, among other challenges.

It’s also possible, if unlikely, that Calvert and Kim nab the pair of November ballot spots. But because one GOP incumbent would lose, it would be a net loss for House Republicans, who hold a razor-thin majority over Democrats.

New territory to campaign in

With weeks to go ahead of the primary, both candidates find themselves trying to meet voters they haven’t previously represented. Calvert, whose political base is Riverside County, found the congressional district he currently represents, the 41st, carved up in the mid-decade Democratic redraw.

Though, as Calvert notes, his hoped-for new political home in the 40th Congressional District contains a considerable chunk of his current constituency. Calvert contends it makes sense for him to be the representative for one of the few friendly territories left for the GOP in the deep-blue state.

Calvert, 72, the longest-serving Republican in California’s congressional delegation, represents part of the Inland Empire. He has held a seat in Congress for 33 years, survived two redistrictings, and says he isn’t afraid of a fight.

“I was born there, I was raised there, and I started a business there,” he told the Washington Examiner. “I’ve been living there all my life, and I’ve represented a majority of the people there.”

But Kim, 63, an Orange County Republican, has made clear she has no intention of leaving the House after nearly six years in office. Backed by strong fundraising, Kim has argued that it’s time for Calvert’s long tenure in Congress to come to a close.

“How many more decades does he need to get things done?” Kim told the Washington Examiner. “The reality is that Calvert has had enough time to prove himself, and after 30 years, he simply has not.”

Jeff Le, managing principal at 100 Mile Strategies and a deputy Cabinet secretary to former California Gov. Jerry Brown, a Democrat, called the face-off between the two Republicans “one of the most intriguing congressional primaries in the country.”

“While their congressional records reveal a streak of bipartisanship and policy substance, their campaigns have focused their energy and attention on aligning closer to the president’s views on immigration and the language accustomed to coming from the current commander in chief,” he told the Washington Examiner. “Despite the president’s poor numbers in the state, his approval rating remains strong among the Republican base, even in blue California.”

California-based political pundit Jamie E. Wright told the Washington Examiner she believes Calvert and Kim “will use their ‘sharp elbows’ against each other.”

“When two incumbents run against each other from the same ideological position, they must find ways to differentiate themselves,” she said. “This often involves challenging the opponent’s effectiveness, loyalty, endurance, electability, and/or authenticity. Do not expect much debate over the broader conservative platform, and do expect debate on who can hold onto the seat as a Republican.”

Redistricting-induced races galore

The 40th Congressional District fight in California is one of several pivotal matchups across both parties this year involving two incumbents. It’s the result of a redistricting war that began in Texas at Trump’s urging, moved to California, and most recently landed in Virginia. Commonwealth voters on April 21 approved an aggressively gerrymandered House map that could widen Democrats’ 6-5 edge over Republicans to a 10-1 near-wipeout, a key part of the Democratic strategy to win a majority for the first time in four years.

And though Democrats have been on a redistricting winning streak over the past six months, with successful map-drawing ballot measures in California and Virginia, Republicans could still get a big boost in a pending Supreme Court ruling. Justices are considering whether a key section of the Voting Rights Act, allowing for majority-minority districts, could further upend elections across the country. The case could reshape the House’s political landscape in Republicans’ favor, though how much of an impact it has on this year’s midterm elections hinges on when the justices issue their decision.

At the center of the case is the VRA’s Section 2, which bars voting practices that discriminate based on race. That provision has long been used to justify the creation of majority-minority districts designed to give voters of color a stronger chance to elect candidates of their choice. If the court were to invalidate that section entirely, Republican-controlled states, particularly in the South, could move to dismantle many of those districts, which are represented by Democrats. Such a shift would dramatically escalate the redistricting battles.

Election year tumult in the contours of congressional maps could create more hard-hitting member-on-member campaigns, like the one playing out in the Calvert-Kim Southern California fight. Both Republicans have adopted a gloves-off approach, questioning the other’s sharpness and arguing they’ve delivered the most funding, built the strongest connections in Washington, and are the best aligned with Trump.

Calvert, who highlighted his financial support for Trump’s 2016, 2020, and 2024 presidential campaigns, framed himself as a staunch ally.

“I’m the only real, true Trump conservative,” he said. “I’ve been endorsed twice by the president. I work with him and not only that, I’ve done more as far as bringing back dollars to California than any member of Congress, I think, in history.”

Calvert, the chairman of the House Appropriations Committee’s defense subcommittee, has secured billions in funding for multiple defense and water projects, including the Santa Ana River Mainstem Project, which provides flood protection along the river in Riverside, San Bernardino, and Orange counties.

Kim, who sits on the House Financial Services Committee, said Calvert’s record isn’t enough and pointed to her legislative output: more than 180 bills passed out of the House and more than 50 signed into law. “This is only my third term, and it didn’t take me 30 years to get things done,” she said.

Both have emphasized ties to Trump — a strategy Democratic strategist Seamus Love warned could backfire.

“If either incumbent cares about their staying power in the Inland Empire,” Love told the Washington Examiner, “then a quiet shift away from the toxicity that is the Trump administration would probably help them survive both June 2nd’s jungle primary and a potential November rematch.”

Calvert and Kim are competing in a crowded field that includes five Democrats. California’s jungle primary system, in which the top two vote-getters advance to the Nov. 3 general election regardless of party, could split the Democratic vote and set up a November rematch between the two Republicans. Calvert said that if that happens, his strategy of being all-in on Trump won’t change, but he cautioned that Kim would start to court liberal voters, a claim she denied.

Wright warned that a prolonged intraparty battle would be damaging to both.

MAGA ‘LOSING AT THEIR OWN GAME’: GAVIN NEWSOM

“The actual harm will occur during several months of negative campaigning among these two candidates for office, when donors begin to deplete their resources, and both candidates feel compelled to take increasingly extreme positions based solely upon ideological positioning,” she said. “Therefore, the major strategic issue facing both Calvert and Kim revolves around which candidate will benefit from a protracted battle for control of the Republican Party.”

The National Republican Congressional Committee typically steers clear of primaries. If it stays on the sidelines, both campaigns will be left to finance the fight themselves. Kim, widely seen by operatives as a fundraising juggernaut, raised $1.3 million last quarter and ended the quarter with $5.8 million in cash on hand. Calvert raised $752,000 and reported $3.7 million on hand, noting he spent heavily opposing Proposition 50 — the measure that has now put his political future at risk.

Barnini Chakraborty (@Barnini) is a senior political reporter at the Washington Examiner.