As of Monday afternoon, the international benchmark Brent crude was up by more than 2%, trading around $108 per barrel. These higher oil prices have caused further upward pressure on the prices of petroleum products, including gasoline and jet fuel. 

Negotiations to end the war have largely stalled in recent weeks, though Iran gave the U.S. a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. 

The proposal would delay negotiations on a nuclear deal, Axios reported, meaning the U.S. is unlikely to accept the terms, resulting in an even longer closure of the strait. 

Pre-war traffic 

Ahead of the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, roughly 20 million barrels of crude oil and other oil products passed through the strait each day. 

As many as 180 vessels were spotted transiting the crucial waterway daily in the week leading up to the attacks. 

Typically, traffic levels are around 130-140 ships per day. 

Hours after the Feb. 28 strikes, dozens of ships anchored, halting traffic by around 70% that first weekend of the war. 

Since it has continued, however, traffic has dropped by as much as 97%. 

The US blockade 

Daily traffic even dropped close to zero in mid-April, after the U.S. military installed its own blockade in the strait, targeting Iran’s ports and coastal areas. 

Twenty-four hours after the blockade began on April 13, the U.S. military said no ships made it past its blockade, and that six merchant vessels were forced to turn around. 

While the U.S. blockade created greater uncertainty for vessels seeking to pass through the strait, other reports indicated that the U.S. campaign did not strongly influence traffic elsewhere in the waterway. 

Following the first full day, at least eight vessels, including three tankers linked to Iran, crossed through the strait, according to shipping data reviewed by Reuters. Those three Iran-linked vessels were reportedly not headed to Iranian ports and were therefore not affected by the U.S. blockade.

On Saturday, the U.S. military said at least 37 vessels have been redirected since the blockade began. 

Temporary reopening 

On April 17, Iranian officials said the strait was open to commercial ships, in an apparent effort to de-escalate and allow energy flows to resume.

The announcement caused dozens of vessels to rush to the strait to exit the Persian Gulf. More than a dozen were able to pass through, including many carrying petroleum products. 

However, the U.S. said its blockade of Iranian ports would remain in full force, causing Iran to reverse course. 

One day later, Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was closed again and fired upon at least two ships near Oman to assert its dominance and control over the waterway. 

Monthslong recovery 

Oil and gas analysts, as well as industry executives, are skeptical that traffic through the strait will return to normal levels in the coming weeks. 

Instead, many believe it will take months for transit to return to pre-war levels.

In an anonymous survey released earlier this month, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that 39% of domestic oil and gas executives believe traffic will return to normal levels by August, while 26% said it will take until November. Another 14% said it could take longer than November, and just 20% said they believe traffic would normalize in May. 

Prediction market bettors are bearish on traffic flows. 

Bettors on Kalshi predict a 32% chance that normal flows resume by June 1. More are confident it will happen by July 1, giving it a 54% chance.

The risk of underwater mines very likely could delay traffic from reaching normal levels in the coming weeks and months. 

Pentagon officials reportedly told Congress earlier this month that it could take the U.S. six months to fully clear the strait of mines, an effort that may not be fully underway until the war ends, according to the Washington Post. 

On Friday, War Secretary Pete Hegseth said he would not speculate on a timeline but did not deny the possibility that it could take that long. 

“Allegedly that was something that was said,” Hegseth said. “But we feel confident in our ability, in the correct period of time, to clear any mines that we identify.”

Current traffic levels 

Between March 4 and April 20, approximately 187 vessels successfully transited through the strait.

Over half of these ships are operated by shipping companies in just four countries, with China and Hong Kong accounting for 20.3%, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Iran was responsible for 12.3% of the ships that passed through.

Traffic through the waterway appeared to rebound slightly over the weekend, with a total of 19 vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, according to maritime intelligence platform Windward.

But as peace negotiations have come to another stalemate, traffic fell again on Sunday. Windward found that only eight vessels were crossing through the strait, with four vessels traveling inbound and four traveling out. 

The number of oil tankers traveling through the strait is believed to be much smaller. 

Shipping tracking data compiled by Bloomberg found that only six commercial vessels, three of which were oil tankers, traveled through the strait on Saturday, while only one passed through on Sunday.  

Other vessels that have crossed the strait in recent days include a sanctioned Russian superyacht and multiple cruise ships. 

But merchants still face the risks of seizure and attacks. Iran on Thursday seized two vessels it accused of operating without certain permits and tampering with navigation systems. 

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Despite the small trickle of ships transiting through, there does appear to be an increasing vessel presence across the Gulf, a key step toward rebuilding to normal energy flows. 

As of Sunday, Windward found that the overall vessel presence across the Gulf region was around 920, an increase of 28 from Saturday. This includes 156 bulk carriers, 146 product tankers, 83 crude oil tankers, 52 container ships, 43 liquefied natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas tankers, and 38 chemical tankers.