Before boarding Air Force One for the last time this morning, former President Donald Trump left his supporters with a promise: “We will be back in some form.”
What exactly he means is anyone’s guess. More than keeping observers on their toes, Trump probably isn’t even completely sure what he means yet. There is a lot of game left to play.
Among the speculation is the idea that he might start a new media venture. The Wall Street Journal also reports that he is interested in starting a new political party and would call it the “Patriot Party,” although that isn’t an easy thing to do. Whatever happens, the going consensus, which he confirmed on Wednesday, is that he will be around.
It’s also possible, as things stand now, that he runs for president again. The outcome of his Senate impeachment trial will tell us a lot about his future prospects there.
If the Senate convicts him and bars him from running again (and if that stands up in court), he won’t have any presidential prospects, but then, the Republican Party might not either. Republican Sen. Rand Paul imagines one-third of Republican voters leaving the party in the case of a Senate conviction. Sen. Lindsey Graham also thinks it would break the party.
Even if the Senate doesn’t convict and bar Trump, a Republican reckoning will ensue in full force. Trump is entangled with the Republican Party, and prominent Republicans are showing signs that they have soured on the prospect of his leading it in the future, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell chief among them.
Yet polling from after the Capitol riot shows that Trump still enjoys a significant base of support. The party can only enter 2022 and 2024 with strength comparable to 2020 or to 2016 if it can somehow maintain the support of that base.
With Trump promising to be “back in some form,” it’s even harder to imagine the GOP finding a way to do that in the short term.
