Sen. Thad Cochran, R-Miss., announced Monday that he would resign April 1, triggering a November special election that could pose additional challenges for the Republicans in a midterm shaping up nationally as a backlash against President Trump.
There is little danger of Cochran’s seat falling to the Democrats in deep red Mississippi, where Trump is held in high regard by his party. But the state’s quirky election law could force Republicans to pay extra attention and spend additional resources to insure against surprises, such as the GOP’s shocking loss of a Senate seat in Alabama in a December special election.
Gov. Phil Bryant, a Republican, would appoint a successor to Cochran within 10 days of his resignation. But a successor to serve the remainder of Cochran’s term is chosen in special election, with candidates competing in an all-party, jungle primary held the same day as the November general election, followed by a runoff three weeks later between the top two finishers.
“Make no mistake – only one person’s opinion matters – Phil Bryant!” a Republican insider in Mississippi said in an email to the Washington Examiner.
The main priority of Republican leaders in Mississippi and Washington is blocking Chris McDaniel, a state senator, from the eventual runoff.
They worry the insurgent conservative, with a history of provocative rhetoric, is the one Republican who could lose to a Democrat, similar to the outcome in Alabama, where the controversial retired GOP judge, Roy Moore, fell to now-Sen. Doug Jones, a Democrat.
McDaniel last week launched a Republican primary challenge against Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., who is up for re-election this year. In a statement issued Monday evening, following a conference call with a close-knit group of supporters, McDaniel said he would continue his campaign against Wicker, but did not rule out switching gears and running in the special.
Indeed, McDaniel could lose the June primary to Wicker and then run in the special; the filing deadline for that contest is not until September. Some Republican insiders believe this has been McDaniel’s plan all along. He is charging Wicker with being insufficiently conservative, a charge that could have trouble sticking after the incumbent received Trump’s enthusiastic endorsement.
“Given Sen. Cochran’s retirement, I will continue to monitor developments regarding his replacement and the special election that will follow,” McDaniel said. “While it is certain that Mississippi will have two U.S. Senate races this year, I am currently focused on my campaign against Roger Wicker, but all options remain on the table as we determine the best way to ensure that Mississippi elects conservatives to the United States Senate.”
Bryant is inclined to appoint a successor to Cochran who would run in the special election, Republican insiders say. The governor is said to prefer a consensus conservative who could unify the party and beat back an insurgent challenge from a candidate like McDaniel, while coming across as broadly acceptable in any runoff against a Democrat.
The Republican most often mentioned who fits the bill is Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves. There’s a small problem, however: Reeves has been preparing and raising money for several years to run for governor to succeed Bryant. It’s unclear that he has any interest in pivoting to Washington and the Senate.
Other potential appointees include Mississippi Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann; state House Speaker Philip Gunn; state Agriculture Commissioner Cindy Hyde-Smith; state Sen. Josh Harkins; and possibly even Bryant. Some McDaniel supporters believe Bryant could appoint the state senator.
McDaniel nearly knocked off Cochran in the 2014 GOP primary. Using him to fill the vacancy would protect Wicker and satisfy conservative insurgents in Mississippi unhappy with the party establishment. But McDaniel and the governor don’t have a good relationship.
The Democrats’ top choice to run in the special is David Baria, a state representative.
Al Weaver contributed to this report.
