President Donald Trump has set high expectations for Iraq’s newly designated prime minister, Ali al Zaidi, expectations that reflect Washington’s long-standing hope for a stable, reliable partner in Baghdad.
But Iraq’s reality is far more complicated. In Iraq, leadership is not just about capability — it is about constraint. And those constraints are built into the system itself. Al Zaidi did not rise to power through a reform movement or popular momentum; he was elevated by the Coordination Framework, a bloc widely associated with Iran-aligned political forces and militia-backed influence.
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That context defines the limits of what he can actually do.
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High expectations, limited power
The Trump administration’s expectations are clear: stability, security cooperation, and, most importantly, an end to attacks on U.S. bases and diplomatic facilities. But those expectations may be higher than Iraq’s system can realistically deliver.
The groups responsible for many of those attacks are not outside the system; they are embedded within it. They are politically connected, institutionally integrated, and, in many cases, directly tied to the coalition that brought the current leadership to power. That creates a fundamental dilemma.
The choice no one can avoid
Ali al Zaidi is being asked to balance competing forces that cannot all be satisfied at once. He cannot fully align with Washington while simultaneously accommodating Iran’s influence and the militias that operate within Iraq’s political and security landscape.
At some point, he will have to choose between meeting U.S. expectations and maintaining the support of Iran-backed factions, and between asserting state authority and preserving the coalition that enabled his rise.
He cannot make everyone happy — not Trump, not Iran, and not the militias. In Iraq’s system, that choice is not theoretical. It is unavoidable.
The risk of misreading Iraq again
There is a recurring mistake in U.S. policy toward Iraq: assuming that a new leader can break free from the system that produced them.
But leadership in Baghdad does not operate independently of power networks — it operates within them. Even well-intentioned leaders face the same structural limits. Without control over armed actors and political blocs, authority remains partial at best. That is why expectations based on personality rather than structure often fall short.
What success actually looks like
If Iraq’s new government is to meet U.S. expectations, the test will not be speeches or diplomatic messaging. It will be outcomes: A sustained halt to attacks on U.S. personnel; real constraints on militia activity; and clear evidence that state authority outweighs armed networks.
Without these, talk of reform will remain aspirational.
The bottom line
Trump’s expectations reflect what Washington wants from Iraq. But what Iraq can deliver depends on something deeper than leadership — it depends on power.
And power in Iraq is still divided. A new prime minister may signal change, but unless he is willing and able to choose a side, that change will remain limited. Because in today’s Iraq, trying to balance everyone does not create stability. It creates paralysis.
The conditions no one can ignore
For any real partnership to work, Iraq’s new leadership would need to deliver on a set of critical benchmarks:
Form a truly independent and effective government; crack down on currency smuggling and corruption; bring weapons fully under state control; redefine Iraq’s relationship with Iran; and establish a clear regional strategy.
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These are not minor reforms. They go to the core of Iraq’s power structure. And that is exactly the problem.
Heyrsh Abdulrahman is a Washington-based senior intelligence analyst and writer specializing in Middle East security, U.S. foreign policy, Iraqi governance, and Kurdish political affairs. His work appears in U.S. and international publications.
