Welcome to Friday’s edition of Washington Secrets. As usual, our strategists run the rule over Trump’s week to see if he’s winning or losing. (Spoiler alert: The Democrat comes to a different conclusion to the Republican.) Secrets is taking a break next week, so will be missing from your inbox on Monday and Tuesday, but will be back down to business on Wednesday.
Donald Trump is a matter of days from meeting Xi Jinping in Beijing. But the summit has barely entered the headlines, with all attention still focused on the war with Iran. None of that has stopped the president from focusing on his passions: seeking revenge over his opponents, mixed martial arts, and golf.
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On Sunday, Trump announced that “Project Freedom” would soon begin guiding stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz, the latest twist in rival blockades of the region. The president was at his Doral Club, where he was later spotted on the Golf Channel watching the Cadillac Championship with son Eric.
He was back at the White House for an event on Monday with small business owners. He played down worries about the rising cost of energy, and said he saw it “going down very substantially” soon.
Who says Trump is a lame duck? Tuesday’s elections brought retribution in Indiana, where Trump-backed challengers brought down state senators who opposed his redistricting push. But after Secretary of State Marco Rubio spent the day explaining Project Freedom to reporters, the president pulled the plug on the plan, saying that progress was being made with Iran.
The spectacle of a president waging war with one hand while simultaneously indulging his passions continued on Wednesday. He hosted UFC fighters in the Oval Office to promote a June 14 fight at the White House, while on the same day threatening Iran with an intensification of bombing if they do not agree to peace terms.
By Thursday, the ceasefire was unraveling. The United States and Iran exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials accused the United Arab Emirates of launching strikes in the south of the country. The UAE said Iran had struck its Fujairah port.
In the meantime, American officials have suggested peace is inching closer. Iranian officials say they are still studying a one-page memorandum of understanding.
So what do our strategists make of it all?
John Zogby: Grade F
With the end of the semester, I am resorting to a PowerPoint presentation for the president’s week.
Slide 1: Gas prices are up by more than half since before the war in Iran started, and half of Americans expect them to continue to go up.
Slide 2: Sixty-one percent say that it was a mistake to go to war.
Slide 3: While allegedly studying a memorandum of understanding to forge a ceasefire, Iran and the U.S. are engaged in attacks on each other. The memo, at best, brings the two countries back to the status quo.
Slide 4: CBS News’ leading foreign correspondent reports from Tel Aviv, saying that “none of us has any idea what is going on here.”
Slide 5: Forty-two percent say that they are engaged in belt-tightening. There will be fewer vacations this summer because gas prices are high, airfares are up 20%, and flight and hotel bookings are down.
Slide 6: Spirit Airlines is out of business.
Slide 7: The Justice Department is engaged in another revenge investigation of the Democrat who led the redistricting effort in Virginia.
Slide 8: The Republicans in Congress want $1 billion to complete the new East Wing Ballroom in the White House.
John Zogby is the founder of the Zogby Survey and senior partner at John Zogby Strategies. His latest book is Beyond the Horse Race: How to Read Polls and Why We Should. His podcast with son, managing partner, and pollster Jeremy Zogby, can be heard here. Follow him on X @ZogbyStrategies.
Jed Babbin: Grade B+
It seems confusion is the main theme this week in the Iran war. The stock market, despite oil price fluctuations, seems irrepressibly high, maintaining its Dow Jones averages above 49,000. Sadly, we have no Democrat inanities to report this week, but there won’t be a long wait.
The Saudis reportedly caused Trump to delay (or cancel) his Project Freedom plan to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, Iranian and American ships traded fire around the strait. No significant damage resulted though several Iranian fast boats were sunk or damaged badly. Meanwhile, the UAE and Israel have signed a strategic alliance. The UAE also broke off from the OPEC oil cartel, seeking wider markets. The latter is very good news as it will probably bring the cost of gasoline down in the U.S. I paid $4.09 per gallon last week.
Rubio did what he could to calm things down with the Pope and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. The pope should be fine, but Meloni, with other NATO leaders, should not. They are facing up to 100,000 U.S. troops being pulled out of their countries, and they can’t be happy both for the reduced U.S. interest in protecting them and for the smallish blows to their economies. Trump is entirely serious about abandoning NATO.
Rubio also announced the end of Operation Epic Fury, the all-out attack on Iran. But is it over? Trump’s threats suggest it’s still on. The blockade is still on. We’ll see. Trump keeps saying that we are about a week away from a deal with Iran, but one week stacks on another.
Jed Babbin is a Washington Examiner contributor and former deputy undersecretary of defense in the administration of President George H.W. Bush. Follow him on X @jedbabbin.
Lunchtime reading
China sees a ‘Giant with a limp’ as U.S. drains weapons on Iran war: Want something else to worry about? The New York Times has you covered. Chinese analysts are apparently questioning whether Washington can protect Taiwan as it uses up its missiles.
Christian nationalist pastor Doug Wilson: “I’m starting a fight”: A Lunch with the FT from the ages. On why Trump’s Jesus image should be printed on velvet cushions and why the president is a good kind of toxic, like chemo.
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