In April, the Ukrainian army achieved some of its most significant battlefield successes since the war began in February 2022. For the first time since Ukraine’s Kursk incursion in August 2024, Russian forces recorded a net territorial loss.
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Moscow ceded control of 116 square kilometers, or 44.8 square miles, across the front. In the first four months of 2025, Russian forces seized an average of 9.76 square kilometers, or 3.8 square miles, per day. In 2026, that figure fell to approximately 2.9 square kilometers, or 1.1 square miles, per day over the same period. Ukrainian ground counterattacks, the February block on Russian Starlink access, and the Kremlin’s decision to throttle Telegram have all pressed down on Russian command and communication.
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Ukraine’s drone campaign has expanded into a sustained strategic instrument reaching deep inside Russian territory. Strikes on drilling platforms in the northern Caspian Sea, pumping stations in Volgograd and Krasnodar, an oil depot near Tver, petrochemical facilities in Bashkortostan, and repeated hits on the Tuapse Black Sea export terminal have allowed Ukraine to bring the war to Russian territory.
Reuters reported that these cumulative strikes have cost Russia access to roughly 40% of its possible oil export revenues, with Ukraine degrading the capacity to move at least 2 million barrels per day. The human cost on the Russian side accumulates in parallel. Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov reported 35,203 Russian soldiers eliminated or seriously wounded in April alone. President Volodymyr Zelensky cited Russian intelligence documents suggesting that 62% of Russian casualties represent deaths, which represents a higher proportion than Western analysts had previously assumed. Total Russian personnel losses from February 2022 through May 2026 have reached approximately 1.34 million.
Ukraine’s strikes deep inside Russian territory are causing further panic in the Kremlin. For the first time in President Vladimir Putin’s tenure, the Red Square parade will feature no nuclear weapons and no ground equipment. Victory Day has traditionally been the centerpiece of Putin’s political propaganda and, for two decades, a consistent demonstration of military power to domestic and international audiences alike.
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This year, Russia is cutting the mobile internet connection across Moscow for the duration of the event. The security precautions around Red Square are a measure of how far Ukraine can now reach and how seriously Russia takes that threat.
Russia has now fought this war longer than its World War II campaign. For Ukraine, the cost of continued war is indeed visible on the streets and at the front. But Kyiv has come to accept that the cost of stopping on Moscow’s terms will be higher down the line.
Thus, Ukraine must keep fighting on.
