WITH TRUMP APPROVAL TICKING DOWN, MIDTERM ELECTIONS ARE STILL A GLOOMY PICTURE FOR GOP. For the first time this term, President Donald Trump’s job approval rating has dipped below 40% in the RealClearPolitics average of polls. The newest rating is 39.9% approval and 57% disapproval.
The president’s approval has been ticking downward for months — it started at 50.5% in January 2025 — and has come to its current level following a number of polls showing his job approval in the mid-to-high 30s. The latest is a New York Times poll, released Monday, that shows Trump at 37% approval and 59% disapproval, all among registered voters.
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The New York Times poll found a significant gender gap in Trump approval. Forty-four percent of men approve of the job the president is doing, while 29% of women approve. The race/ethnicity gap is larger — Trump’s approval among white respondents is 45%, while his approval among non-white respondents is 20%. Among respondents who voted for Trump in 2024, his approval rating is 79%. Among those who voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris, it is 3%, and among those who did not vote, it is 21%.
The new survey, like many others, found solid disapproval of the war in Iran. The New York Times asked, “Do you think Donald Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran was the right decision or the wrong decision?” Sixty-four percent said the wrong decision, while 30% said the right decision. Among Trump 2024 voters, 76% said going to war was the right decision. Among Harris voters, 95% said it was the wrong decision.
The pollsters, of course, asked respondents’ opinions on Trump’s handling of the economy — 33% approved and 64% disapproved. More specifically, they also asked about Trump’s handling of the cost of living — 28% approved, 70% disapproved.
As far as the coming midterm elections are concerned, on the so-called generic ballot question — “If the 2026 general election for Congress were held today, which party’s candidate would you be more likely to vote for in your district?” — 50% said the Democratic candidate, while 39% said the Republican candidate, and 11% said they did not know.
That 11-point advantage for Democrats is bigger than the party’s advantage in the RealClearPolitics average of the generic ballot, which stands at 7.2 points. Still, even the average is big enough to cause Republicans serious concern. It’s especially concerning in light of the president’s low job approval rating, another good predictor of midterm election results.
In Trump’s first midterm elections, in 2018, the president’s party, like today, controlled both the House and Senate. The final generic ballot average before the elections favored Democrats by 7.3 points, nearly the same as it is today. Trump’s job approval rating immediately before the 2018 elections was 43.6%, a bit better than it is today. In that election, Democrats picked up 41 seats to win control of the House. The GOP kept control of the Senate.
The Republican Party’s obvious weakness going into the 2026 elections is, of course, the main reason behind the massive battle over redistricting. It appears the GOP will win that battle, at least this year, which could reduce its possible losses in the House. But the current Republican advantage in the House is so small that Democrats can win control by picking up a tiny number of seats.
The current party balance in the House is 217 Republicans to 212 Democrats, with one independent and five vacancies. However those are sorted out, the fact is that if the election were held today, Democrats could win control of the House by picking up three or four seats. That is an incredibly low bar for the party to achieve.
Meanwhile, Trump is adding to his already dominant power in the Republican Party. Over the weekend, one of his last GOP antagonists in the Senate, Sen. Bill Cassidy, lost a primary in Louisiana after Trump endorsed his Republican opponent. That means Trump has gotten rid of all but two of the seven Republicans who voted to convict him in the 2021 post-presidential impeachment trial.
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The Cassidy defeat is on top of others, such as the successful Trump-encouraged primary challenges of several Indiana Republican state lawmakers who crossed the president on redistricting. Trump’s obvious power in such matters has made many lawmakers scared of clashing with him, whatever they might feel about redistricting.
So now, Trump’s authority over the Republican Party has never been higher. But now, with five and a half months until midterm elections, he’s not doing nearly as well with the electorate as a whole.
