“Everyone tells me it’s unpopular, but I think it’s very popular,” Trump told reporters as he conducted a tour of the White House ballroom construction site. “When they hear that it’s having to do with nuclear weapons or weapons that could take out Los Angeles, could take out major cities very quick, when they hear that, you know … they understand.”

Despite the lack of evidence that after last June’s B-2 bomber strikes Iran was anywhere close to reconstituting its nuclear weapons program, Trump has been trying to sell the American public on the scary scenario that Iran was not only weeks away from making a bomb, but also weeks away from using it. “They would start with Israel, they would blow it up, and they would blow it up fast — but they would blow it up. And I’ll tell you what, they’d go after Saudi Arabia, they’d go after Kuwait, they’d go after UAE, they’d go after Qatar, they’d go after — I think they’d go after the entire Middle East.”

“It would be nuclear holocaust. And there’s no question in my mind that they’d use it. There’s no question,” Trump said. “These are people that are seriously radicalized. They would use it. The only question, would it be the first minute, the first hour, or the first day?”

“I don’t really have enough time to explain to people. I’m too busy getting it done,” said Trump, the president who has more airtime and social media access than any previous president. “But whether it’s popular or not popular, I have to do it because I’m not going to let the world be blown up on my watch. It’s not going to happen.”

WHY IRAN DESPERATELY WANTS NUKES: Despite Trump’s nightmare scenario, where Iran nukes all its neighbors and destroys the “entire Middle East,” the reality of nuclear weapons is that they are not much use in modern war. Just ask Russia. The problem is, you cannot just use them. Once you do, everybody is toast, and everyone loses.

But nuclear weapons have one big selling point: deterrence. They are the ultimate insurance policy against outside regime change. Just ask North Korea, a brutal dictatorship that has nuclear weapons and missiles that reach the United States. 

At a White House briefing later in the day, Vice President JD Vance, filling in for new mother Karoline Leavitt, laid out the more likely consequences of Iran joining the nuclear club. “They could use it in leverage, in economic control or economic negotiations,” Vance said. And even more worrisome, “Iran would really be the first domino in what would set off a nuclear arms race all over the world.”

“We know that a lot of nations all across the Gulf would then want their own nuclear weapon, and then a lot of nations all across the world,” Vance said. “If you have every country in the world scrambling to try to get a nuclear weapon, it would make us all much less safe.”

“We want to keep the number of countries that have nuclear weapons small,” Vance said, “As the father of three young kids, I don’t want them to inherit a world where 20 additional regimes, half of them very dangerous and very sympathetic to terrorists, have nuclear weapons. 

IRAN SCHOOL ALLEGEDLY HIT BY US WAS ON ACTIVE MISSILE SITE: CENTCOM

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. 

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HAPPENING TODAY: ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER DEADLINE: President Trump claimed yesterday that he was “an hour away from making the decision” about whether to resume bombing Iran, when he stayed his hand at the behest of several Gulf War allies, including, he said, “Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait a little bit, and Bahrain.”

“They called me over the last two days to say they’ve made a lot of progress — because we have them negotiating with us … They know the people in Iran,” Trump said.

“But I got a call yesterday. ‘Sir, could you wait? We think we’re close to a deal,’” Trump said. “I had made the decision. So they called up, they had heard I had made the decision, and they said, ‘Sir, could you give us a couple of more days? Because we think they’re being reasonable.’

“They knew I was getting ready to attack. I didn’t tell them. I never tell anybody when,” he said. “We were all set to go … The ships are all loaded. They’re loaded to the brim, and we were all set to start.”

“Now, I’ve heard it before with these people and they changed their mind,” Trump said, while indicating he’s willing to see what happens in the next few days. “I’m saying two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday, something, maybe early next week. A limited period of time.”

TRUMP GIVES IRAN ‘TWO OR THREE DAYS’ TO AGREE TO LONGER PEACE DEAL

WAR POWERS LIMITS ADVANCE IN SENATE: After seven failed attempts, the Senate managed to pass a bill under the War Powers Resolution of 1973, which while unlikely to gain the force of law, is a symbolic measure indicating the Congress is beginning to assert its constitutional authority to decide when the country wages war and that Republicans, in the words of Minority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), “are starting to crack.”

The vote was 50-47, with Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), who just lost his primary to an opponent endorsed by President Trump — joined the Democrats for the first time. 

“While I support the administration’s efforts to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program, the White House and Pentagon have left Congress in the dark on Operation Epic Fury,” Cassidy posted on X. “In Louisiana, I’ve heard from people, including President Trump’s supporters, who are concerned about this war. Until the administration provides clarity, no congressional authorization or extension can be justified.”

“This slow, steady momentum of Republicans saying, ‘Mr. President, you can’t wage war without Congress,’ is building,” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) said on CNN last night. “When we started on this path to say, No war against Iran without a vote of Congress. We had one Republican vote, Rand Paul. A few weeks later, we were eight weeks into the war. We had a second Republican vote, Susan Collins. Last week, once we passed 60 days, which is relevant under the War Powers Act, we got a third vote, Lisa Murkowski. And today, Bill Cassidy joined.”

Trump, who has called the Vietnam-era law “unconstitutional,” complains the debate only plays in the hands of the Iranians.

“How do you feel when you’re negotiating, you’re winning every point, and they say, ‘but in Washington, they want to stop you from negotiating. They want to stop you,’” Trump said. “So, I’m in the middle of a negotiation. I’m saying, you cannot have a nuclear weapon. And it comes over the wire that the ‘Dumocrats’ want to stop Trump from further negotiations … It’s the ‘Dumocrats’. They’re dumb. It’s a new name. It’s a very accurate name.”

SENATE ADVANCES IRAN WAR POWERS BILL AS CASSIDY FLIPS AFTER PRIMARY LOSS

CEASEFIRE OR HOSTILITIES? Yesterday’s House Armed Services Committee hearing put U.S. Central Commander Adm. Brad Cooper, top commander of the Iran War, in the awkward position of having to answer questions truthfully without contradicting his boss, Commander in Chief President Trump.

One example came when Rep. John Garamendi (D-CA) tried to pin Cooper down on whether the U.S. is still in a shooting war with Iran, resulting in the following exchange:

Garamendi: Is it your military assessment that hostilities have been ceased since April?

Cooper: We remain in a ceasefire, yes.

Garamendi: That’s not my question. My question was your military assessment that hostilities have ceased since April?

Cooper: My military assessment is the ceasefire has set the foundation for military hostilities to cease. Iran pushes it.

Garamendi: So the hostilities have continued?

Cooper: Well, Iran clearly attacked our ships, as you described, dozens of times, yes, sir.

Leading Garamendi to lament, “I’m really very, very sorry for the two of you. You just cannot answer a question correctly and directly, but you’re doing the best you can.”

In another exchange, Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) tried to reconcile the president’s description of the state of Iran’s nuclear capabilities with Cooper’s testimony that “Operation Midnight Hammer significantly degraded Iran’s nuclear program.”

“Can you clarify the distinction between obliterated and significantly degraded?” Moulton asked, to which Cooper avoided by saying it was inappropriate to talk about anything regarding the Iranian nuclear program.

“I’m not asking you to talk about the Iran nuclear program,” Moulton said. “I’m asking you to talk about English language. What’s the difference between obliterated and significantly degraded? Are they the same?”

Again Cooper declined to engage on the semantics. Then things got really testy. 

Noting that the Strait of Hormuz is still closed and gas prices are up 56%, Moulton said, “​​It feels like we’re losing. We don’t have a nuclear deal. We don’t have the Strait open. The president has called for unconditional surrender. Is that part of the plan?”

“Congressman, we achieved all our military objectives. We’re presently in a ceasefire. We’re executing a blockade, and we’re prepared for a broad range of contingencies,” Cooper testified.

“It doesn’t seem to be going well,” Moulton shot back. “I would like to know how many more Americans we have to ask to die for this mistake. Do you know?”

You could see Cooper bristle, but he kept his composure. “I think that’s an entirely inappropriate statement from you, sir.”

THINGS WE’RE JUST FINDING OUT NOW: The Pentagon has been quick to point out the successes of Operation Epic Fury, but not so forthcoming with some of the bad news, such as the extensive damage to U.S. bases in the region, which will require billions to rebuild, if they are rebuilt.

A report by the Congressional Research Service published last week lists 42 U.S. warplanes, helicopters, and large drones that have been lost or damaged since the war began on Feb. 28.

They include:

• Four F-15E Strike Eagle fighter aircraft, three shot down by friendly fire, one by the Iranians
• One F-35A Lightning II fighter aircraft, damaged, but landed safely
• One A-10 Thunderbolt II ground-attack aircraft, shot down
• Seven KC-135 Stratotanker aerial refueling aircraft, two collided midair, five damaged on the ground in Saudi Arabia
• One E-3 Sentry airborne early warning-and-control system aircraft, damaged on the ground in Saudi Arabia.
• Two MC-130J Commando II special operations aircraft, destroyed by the U.S, after they could not take off after a pilot rescue mission
• One HH-60W Jolly Green II combat search-and-rescue helicopter, damaged from small arms fire 
• Twenty-four MQ-9 Reaper medium-altitude long-endurance uncrewed aircraft, shot down or crashed 
• One MQ-4C Triton high-altitude long-endurance uncrewed aircraft, crashed in mishap

The report was posted on X by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who mocked the U.S., claiming “Our powerful Armed Forces are confirmed as 1st to strike down a touted F-35.” As noted above, the F-35 in question took some ground fire, but landed safely. It was not shot down.

“Months after initiation of war on Iran, U.S. Congress acknowledges loss of dozens of aircraft worth billions,” Araghchi boasted. “With lessons learned and knowledge we gained, return to war will feature many more surprises.”

OPINION: WITH UAE STRIKES, IRAN TARGETS US CREDIBILITY

THE RUNDOWN: 

Washington Examiner: Trump gives Iran ‘two or three days’ to agree to longer peace deal

Washington Examiner: Senate advances Iran war powers bill as Cassidy flips after primary loss

Washington Examiner: Iran school allegedly hit by US was on active missile site: CENTCOM

Washington Examiner: Africa is ‘epicenter of global terrorism’ that requires ‘sustained pressure’

Washington Examiner: Nigeria says 175 ISIS militants killed in joint strikes with US

Washington Examiner: US still undecided on where to deploy 4,000 troops meant for Poland: Vance

Washington Examiner: Pentagon inspector general to review US strikes on suspected drug boats

Washington Examiner: Cuban president warns of ‘bloodbath’ if US attacks as tension rises

Washington Examiner: Pentagon reduces European brigades but says it maintains ‘strong’ presence in Poland

Washington Examiner: FIFA to ban pre-revolution Iranian flag from World Cup

Washington Examiner: Opinion: With UAE strikes, Iran targets US credibility

New York Times: Early War Goal Was to Install Hard Line Former President as Iran’s Leader

Washington Post: A ship’s crew risked the Strait of Hormuz. They met with a hail of bullets.

New York Times: How Iran Gained Leverage in the War

Wall Street Journal: How Iran Got to the Nuclear Threshold on the Watch of Three U.S. Presidents

AP: Video and satellite photos show Iran war oil spill on Persian Gulf island

Washington Post: As Putin visits China, distrust simmers beneath an anti-U.S. alliance

AP: Taiwan’s Lai says he would tell Trump he hopes to continue arms purchases from the US

The Atlantic: What the Pentagon Didn’t Say About a Deadly Crash

Defense News: More US Troop Withdrawals from Europe Expected, NATO Commander Says

Defense One: ‘Everybody Is Going Underground’: CENTCOM Head Calls for New Tech to Hit Buried Targets

Air & Space Forces Magazine: US Hits ISIS in Nigeria as Pentagon Steps Up Counterterrorism Campaign

Task & Purpose: Special Operations Need ‘PhDs Who Can Win a Bar Fight,’ SOCOM Commander Says

Wall Street Journal: The $50 Million Rocket Deal Fueled by Trump’s Hypersonic Dreams

USNI News: MQ-25A Stingray Certified to Enter Low-Rate Initial Production

Air & Space Forces Magazine: SDA Director Drops ‘Acting’ Label and Adds All Missile Warning to Portfolio

Breaking Defense: Shield AI Tapped to Integrate Autonomous Software on LUCAS Drone

Breaking Defense: NORTHCOM Standing Up ‘Nordic Bridge’ to Boost US Coordination in Arctic

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Pauses All T-38 Trainer Flights, a Week After Alabama Crash

AP: A NATO Fighter Jet Shoots Down a Ukrainian Drone over Estonia

The War Zone: VIDEO: B-1B’s Future Armament According to Its Test Pilot

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Special Ops Pushes Forward with ‘Swiss Army Knife’ OA-1K

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Offering Fewer Reenlistment Bonuses in 2026: Here’s the List

THE CALENDAR: 

WEDNESDAY | MAY 20 

9 a.m. 1334 Longworth — HouseIntelligence Committee hearing: “25 Years After 9/11 – Reviewing the 9/11 Commission & Intelligence Reform Impacts,” with testimony from Bruce Hoffman, senior fellow for counterterrorism and homeland security, Council on Foreign Relations; and Jamil Jaffer, founder and executive director of George Mason University Antonin Scalia Law School’s National Security Institute http://intelligence.house.gov

9:30 a.m. — Atlantic Council discussion: “Poland and Ukraine: A Strategic Economic Partnership for Security,” with Maciej Samsonowicz, chief adviser to the Polish Minister of National Defense; Mustafa Nayyem, former Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Infrastructure; Lech Wojciechowski, former adviser to the head of the Polish National Security Bureau and co-founder, Frontline Foundation; Peter Huntley, CEO of White Star Real Estate; and Olena Babakova, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/warsaw-week-2026/

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “Department of the Air Force FY2027 Budget Request.,” with testimony from Air Force Secretary Troy Meink; Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach; and Space Force Gen. B. Chance Saltzman, chief of space operations http://www.armedservices.house.gov

2:30 p.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Personnel Subcommittee hearing: “Department of Defense personnel policies and programs in review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2027 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from Anthony Tata, undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness; Maurice Todd, assistant secretary of defense for readiness; Timothy Dill, assistant secretary of defense for manpower and reserve affairs; Keith M. Bass, and assistant secretary of defense for health affairs http://www.armed-services.senate.gov

2:30 p.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Personnel Subcommittee hearing; “Defense Department personnel policies and programs in review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2027 and the Future Years Defense Program” http://www.armed-services.senate.gov 

2:30 p.m. 124 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Energy and Water Development Subcommittee hearing: “A Review of the President’s FY2027 Budget Request for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Bureau of Reclamation,” with testimony from Andrea Travnicek, assistant interior secretary for water and science; and Lt. Gen. William H. “Butch” Graham, chief of engineers and commanding general of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers http://appropriations.senate.gov

3:30 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee hearing: “Navy FY2027 Budget Request for Seapower and Projection Forces,” with testimony from Jason Potter, performing the duties of assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development, and acquisition; Lt. Gen. Eric Austin, deputy commandant of the Marine Corps for combat development and integration; and Rear Adm. Mark Behning, acting deputy chief of naval operations for warfighting requirements and capabilities http://www.armedservices.house.gov

3:30 p.m. SVC-217, U.S. Capitol — Senate Armed Services Committee CLOSED briefing on anomalous health incidents.: SVC-217, U.S. Capitol http://www.armed-services.senate.gov

THURSDAY | MAY 21 

7:15 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Va. — Association of the U.S. Army discussion: “The FY2027 Army Budget,” with Maj. Gen. Rebecca McElwain, director, Army budget https://ausa.org/events/coffee-series/fy27-army-budget

8 a.m. 3111 Fairview Park Dr.. Falls Church, Va— Potomac Officers Club Cyber Summit: with Highlights: Defense Department Chief Information Security Officer Aaron Bishop; Robyn Celestino, general counsel in the White House Office of the National Cyber Director; Katherine Sutton, assistant secretary of defense for cyber policy; Michael Duffy, acting federal chief information security officer for the Office of Management and Budget; and Chris Butera, acting executive assistant director for the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency https://www.potomacofficersclub.com/events/2026-cyber-summit/

10:30 a.m. 192 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing: “A Review of the President’s FY2027 Budget Request for the Navy,” with testimony from Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao; Adm. Daryl Caudle, chief of naval operations; and Gen. Eric Smith, commandant of the Marine Corps http://appropriations.senate.gov

11 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “The posture of the Department of the Air Force in review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2027 and the Future Years Defense Program. http://www.armed-services.senate.gov

FRIDAY | MAY 22

10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion: “Military Human Spaceflight: A Key Component to American Space Superiority,” with retired Space Force Col. Kyle Pumroy, senior resident fellow for space studies at the Mitchell Institute https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/events/military-human-spaceflight

1 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “What Are the Biggest Space Threats in 2026?,” with Kathleen Brett, program analyst for space security and stability, Secure World Foundation; Victoria Samson, chief director for space security and stability, Secure World Foundation; Clayton Swope, deputy director, CSIS Aerospace Security Project; and Kari Bingen, director, CSIS Aerospace Security Project https://www.csis.org/events/what-are-biggest-space-threats-2026