Ever since World War II, Europe has been reliant on the United States for everything from its defense to its healthcare. President Donald Trump is now signaling that this era of dependence is over.
Technically, Trump has been telegraphing this since his very first presidential campaign, when he declared that other countries need to stop ripping off the U.S. He singled out Europeans in particular for free-riding off of American security guarantees through NATO.
Recommended Stories
But Trump has often had bigger fish to fry, and while he’s put plenty of verbal pressure on Europe to stand on its own two feet, the intervening Ukraine war has only deepened European dependence. The U.S. has given nearly five times as much bilateral aid to Ukraine as Germany, the leading European contributor, even though the U.S. is an ocean and a continent away.
US TROOP MOVEMENTS IN EUROPE NOT ‘PUNITIVE,’ RUBIO SAYS AFTER POLAND REVERSAL
Yet all this seems now to be changing. Trump recently made two big moves that suggest he’s serious about finally forcing the U.S.-Europe relationship into balance.
The first came in mid-May when he announced the withdrawal of 5,000 U.S. troops from Germany. Trump had toyed with a similar drawdown in 2020, but this time, he appears to be following through, stung by Europe’s refusal to support the U.S. in its war with Iran.
Germany certainly seems to think Trump is serious. “That the U.S. would withdraw troops from Europe and also from Germany was foreseeable,” the German defense minister recently said, adding, “We Europeans must assume more responsibility for our security.”
Previous presidents have removed U.S. troops from Europe, but usually at the end of a conflict, such as World War II (Harry Truman) or the Cold War (George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton), or the start of a new one, such as the Global War on Terrorism (George W. Bush). Contrast that to today, when a major war is being fought on European soil, yet an American president is still trimming our force presence there.
Other American administrations have grumbled about European military dependence, but in practice, they’ve implemented policies that have deepened this dependence. Joe Biden, for example, waved Sweden and Finland into NATO, which is disproportionately funded by the U.S., while making Washington a key funder of the Ukrainian army.
Trump, in contrast, has taken real action in the opposite direction. Even if he never pulls out more than 5,000 troops, the message has been sent to Berlin, Brussels, and London: American babysitting is no longer a guarantee.
The other way Trump has worked to lessen Europe’s reliance on America is through trade. European nations enjoy largely unhindered access to the American market and run major trade surpluses as a result. They then slap bans on U.S. agriculture, onerous regulations on U.S. tech companies, and price controls on other U.S. goods.
Even critics of Trump’s tariffs admit he has a point on Europe’s trade freeloading. European Union members might trade freely with each other, but they’re deeply protectionist toward their benefactor across the Atlantic.
Take the healthcare sector. Europeans have long boasted about how they enjoy cradle-to-grave universal healthcare access, but this comes at a cost to Americans. European nations negotiate doggedly with American pharmaceutical companies to win below-market prices on new medicines.
This is free-riding just as much as in the defense sector. Americans pay two to three times more for medications than Europeans, despite having discovered and developed many of those drugs in the first place. This is because the Europeans drive a hard bargain, and pharmaceutical companies end up having to recoup lost revenue in the American market.
Now, Trump seems to have had enough. When Germany passed a law mandating even stricter price controls on all American-made drugs, Trump officials Jamieson Greer and Chris Klomp held a breakfast with the German ambassador this month and warned of more tariffs if the measure wasn’t revoked.
Trump has already gotten a better deal out of the United Kingdom. After he issued similar warnings, the British government struck a trade agreement with the U.S. that requires its National Health Service to pay 25% more for innovative American drugs. That’s a sign the Trump approach has bite as well as bark, and Germany and other European countries may have to fold next.
The U.S. has long regarded European countries as kindred spirits, fellow democracies carrying the torch of civilization against Soviet communism and later Islamic jihadism. This led the U.S. to often intervene in Europe’s favor, from the Berlin Airlift to Belgrade.
EUROPE LOOKS TO UNDERSTAND PENTAGON TROOP RESTRUCTURES
But over time, this attitude congealed into a lopsided relationship where the U.S. exalted “our allies” and “democracy” while the Europeans pursued their own interests. As America’s national debt grows and inflation surges, subsidizing some of the richest nations on earth is no longer sustainable.
Mark your calendars. The second Trump administration may go down as the end of the age of European dependence.
Bart Marcois is a retired career diplomat. He was the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Energy for International Affairs and has extensive private-sector experience in commercial intelligence and international business development. He produces daily political and diplomatic analysis at youtube.com/AMinuteWithBart.
