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OIL PRICES ON EDGE AS CEASEFIRE DEAL DETAILS EMERGE: Domestic and international crude oil prices remain fairly similar to where the markets closed yesterday, as traders closely monitor news of a ceasefire deal between the United States and Iran. 

Crude prices had jumped by more than 2.5% earlier today after U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged fire, sparking concerns that there would be significant escalations today. 

Those fears appeared to subside after it was reported that negotiators had agreed to extend the ongoing ceasefire by 60 days and begin substantive negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. The only holdup, however, is that the deal still needs President Donald Trump’s sign-off. 

The agreement, officially known as a memorandum of understanding, would lead to “unrestricted” commerce through the Strait of Hormuz – which is arguably the most crucial thing to resume normal flows of oil worldwide. 

Traders have taken this as a sign that the deal will be finalized soon, settling prices. 

Just after 3 p.m. EDT, Brent Crude was down by 0.32% and selling at $93.99 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate was up 0.56%, and priced at $89.18 a barrel.

While this is positive movement for the markets, analysts are still warning it will take quite some time to see normal flows resume and prices fully settle. 

“A return to prewar oil export levels will take time, probably well into 2027,” analysts with Capital Economics said in a note viewed by the Wall Street Journal, estimating that Brent will remain around $80-$90 a barrel in the fourth quarter of this year. 

IRAN WAR TO DRIVE INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLES, NUCLEAR, AND GRIDS, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY FORECASTS: As it remains unclear what the lasting effects of the war in Iran will be on global energy flows and market prices, the International Energy Agency is predicting countries will ramp up investment in alternative energy resources. 

The details: The projection came in the Paris-based agency’s annual energy investment report, published this morning. The report said the Middle Eastern conflict, specifically the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is changing countries’ risk perceptions and encouraging greater diversification. 

Overall, the IEA estimates that global energy investment will hit $3.4 trillion this year. Roughly $2.2 trillion of that is expected to go toward supporting grids, storage technologies, low-emission fuels, nuclear energy, renewable alternatives, and efficiency and electrification projects. The remaining $1.2 trillion will be invested in traditional fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas, and coal. 

Investments in crude oil specifically are expected to fall for the third year in a row, dropping below $500 billion, the IEA projected. Some of this drop in investment can be attributed to supply chain constraints, tight offshore rig markets, long project lead times, as well as uncertainty over how long the spike in prices will hold. 

The IEA is also expecting the ongoing energy crisis will encourage increased investment in coal power, forecasting that it will increase to $180 billion this year. 

Key quote: “We are already seeing intensified efforts by both producer and consumer countries to diversify trade routes and energy sources – such as advancing new pipelines and other supply infrastructure, on the one hand, and turning more to domestically available resources, on the other,” IEA chief Fatih Birol said. 

IRAN WAR FORCES EUROPE TO WAIVE PENALTIES FOR FOSSIL FUEL FIRMS VIOLATING METHANE EMISSIONS LAW: The war in Iran may provide the Trump administration with an unexpected win in its efforts to pressure Europe to ease some of its climate-related rules and regulations. 

The details: Reuters reports that the European Union plans to ask member nations to waive penalties for three years for oil and gas companies that are in violation of the bloc’s methane emissions law. The move was detailed in a draft document reviewed by the outlet, and comes in response to the major disruption in energy flows caused by the Iran war. 

The waiver would apply to companies that breach the law in 2027, 2028, and 2029 except in the case of “large-scale fraudulent breaches.” It would also apply to existing contracts and those signed or renewed before January 2028. 

“In the current Middle East crisis context, in order to not endanger the ​security of energy supply… and to tackle the exposure of European consumers and businesses to ​potential energy supply shortages causing high prices, member states should not apply the penalties,” the draft document read.

Reuters reported that this would only be a recommendation from EU officials and would not be binding. 

Why it matters: If issued, it would mark a major win for the Trump administration, which has repeatedly criticized the law, saying it could hurt trade relations between the U.S. and Europe. 

The law, taking effect next January, requires imported gas to comply with European regulations for emissions monitoring and verification. Companies that breach the law could face fines of up to 20% of annual profits. 

A CLOSE LOOK AT A SANCTIONS-EVADING SHIP-TO-SHIP OIL TRANSFER: Wall Street Journal reporters witnessed and recorded a ship-to-ship transfer of oil undertaken to ship sanctioned Iranian oil to China.

You can see the images and video of the transfer, which took place off the coast of Malaysia, here. 

Why it matters: Sanctions on Iranian oil have been undercut by the “shadow fleet” of tankers that move oil outside of the U.S.-connected financial and navigation system to sell to China. And the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, too, has so far been limited in its effectiveness because an estimated 90 million barrels of Iranian oil is already outside the blockade. China bought about 1.4 million barrels of Iranian oil per day before the war began. 

Accordingly, Iran will be receiving oil money from China through at least October, Iman Nasseri, managing director of Middle East Research at energy analytics company FGE NexantECA, told the publication. 

He said that the U.S. operation “Economic Fury” was supposed to bring Iran to its knees, but, compared to its neighbors, “Iran is suffering the least.”

ALBERT MANIFOLD PUSHES BACK ON BP OUSTING AS MORE DRAMA COMES TO LIGHT: Albert Manifold is rebutting claims about his conduct and behavior that were tied to his ousting as board chairman and director of British oil major BP earlier in the week. 

The details: Today, Manifold released a lengthy statement regarding the unanimous decision to remove him from his post, calling the allegations against him “lies.” 

“I fully accept that the members of the Board have made their decision that I am no longer to be Chairman and a Director of bp,” he said. “What I do not accept is that lies can be told about me, nor that anyone should be allowed to hide behind anonymity when commenting on my time at bp.” 

At the time of his ousting, BP cited “serious concerns” about his conduct, which it deemed “unacceptable.” While company officials did not publicly detail what type of conduct was at issue, at least one person close to the company claimed he had engaged in bullying internally, according to the Financial Times. 

Manifold rejected this allegation today, saying it was possible that he “pushed hard and challenged people directly.” 

“But there is a considerable distance between driving an organisation with urgency and the characterisation of my conduct that is now being put about,” he said. 

He insisted that he has never had any issues brought to him about his conduct, and never had accusations made against his character and conduct. 

More details come to light: Manifold’s pushback came just hours before the Financial Times reported that part of his ousting was connected to his clashing with one of the longest-serving senior officers at BP, company secretary Ben Matthews. 

Four people familiar with the matter told the outlet that Manifold directly argued with Matthews over costs, with one person alleging Matthews was the “driver” behind his removal. 

SHAPIRO OUTLINES DATA CENTER PLAN FOR PENNSYLVANIA: Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro outlined a plan yesterday to require data center developers to meet certain benchmarks for energy use and investment in exchange for tax incentives. 

The plan: Shapiro’s plan would mitigate the impact of data center construction on the grid by requiring developers to build, bring online or buy incremental electric capacity at their own expense, according to WHYY.  

By 2035, they would have to ensure that a certain amount of the electricity used is generated by nuclear, hydropower, solar, wind, and batteries.

The plan also includes standards for emissions, water use, and local investment. 

It is analogous to the one put forward by New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill that we noted in yesterday’s letter.

TRUMP USING NATIONAL PARK ENTRANCE FEES FOR D.C. BEAUTIFICATION: The Trump administration is reportedly using around $67 million worth of entrance fees from National Parks to fund the president’s efforts to beautify Washington, D.C.

The details: Federal records reviewed by the New York Times reveal that nearly $60 million in park entrance fees are being used to fund repairs to nine ornamental fountains in the District. Another $7 million worth of entrance fees from parks across the country are helping fund repairs and renovations for the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. 

This use of entrance fee revenue is legal under the Federal Lands Recreation Enhancement Act of 2004. This law does require that at least 80% of revenue from entrance fees stay at the national park where the fee was charged, but the other 20% is permitted to be used for facilities and National Park Service locations that do not charge any fees. 

What people are saying: Park advocates had mixed reactions to the spending of the entrance fee revenue, with some criticizing the administration for reducing federal funding for national parks. 

“Our parks and public lands have been underfunded for decades, and there are many genuinely urgent projects in need of funding across the country,” Aaron Weiss, executive director of the Center for Western Priorities, told the New York Times. “Instead, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum is determined to divert millions of dollars to projects that President Trump can see out his window.”

However, Steve Coleman, executive director of Washington Parks & People, told the outlet that it was a “very fitting use” of the funds. 

PLUS – $5 MILLION BEING SPENT ON PAINTING HORSE STATUES GOLD: Just earlier this afternoon, NOTUS reported that the National Park Service had finalized a $5 million contract with a gilding studio in Maryland to repair four massive bronze horse statues surrounding the Lincoln Memorial. 

The studio was awarded the project without a full competition, according to federal documents reviewed by the outlet. Under the terms of the contract, the Maryland gilders will repair the statues and paint them in a thick layer of 23.75-karat gold leaf. 

The documents revealed that the Park Service did not conduct extensive market research to determine if the $5 million price tag for the project was fair. Instead, the agency said that it relied on available historical data “due to the urgent nature” of the project. 

“Historical data available is minimal as these types of projects are rare for NPS; there are no comparable gilding projects of this monumental size, national significance, public visibility, or technical complexity in the Washington, DC area,” the agency reportedly wrote. 

The National Park Service also cited this urgency, and its desire to have it completed by July 4, as one of the reasons why it did not hold any competition for the award. 

RUNDOWN 

The Guardian ‘Flavour is under siege’: how food in America lost its taste

Reuters Why Tesla’s AI trainers don’t trust its self-driving tech – or its safety stats

E&E News How Big Tech learned to speak FERC