The Social Security retirement trust fund will be exhausted in 2032, earlier than previously anticipated, the program’s trustees projected on Tuesday, meaning that senior citizens would face a cut in their benefits at that time unless Congress acts.
The trustees’ report highlights the long-term problems facing entitlement programs on which tens of millions of people rely. Workers can claim Social Security retirement beginning at age 62. Benefits increase the longer workers wait to claim them, but they cap out at a retirement age of 70.
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The trustees predicted that the Old Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund would only be enough to pay 78% of scheduled benefits in the fourth quarter of 2032.
The OASI trust fund, combined with the disability insurance trust fund, is projected to be able to pay out benefits until 2034, after which there will only be enough to pay out 83% of benefits, the trustees project.
“To protect the promise of Social Security, it is important for lawmakers and the Social Security Administration to work together to ensure the trust funds continue to provide financial stability now and for future generations,” Social Security Commissioner Frank Bisignano said.
Following the updated projection, AARP CEO Myechia Minter-Jordan called the report a “wake-up call” and implored Congress to act.
“Americans have worked hard and paid into Social Security their entire lives, and they deserve to count on it when they retire,” she said. “ No family should see any cuts to what they’ve earned in Social Security. Today, more than 71 million people rely on Social Security, and as America ages, ensuring it stays strong will become even more critical.”
Each year, the trustees project when the trust funds will reach exhaustion. Legislative, macroeconomic, and demographic changes can change the calculus.
Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a group that advocates fiscal stability, said Tuesday that Social Security’s projected shortfall is now 16% worse than last year’s in large part because of tax cuts that were part of Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act last year, as well as demographic changes.
The legislation created an enhanced deduction for seniors over the age of 65, a provision meant to fulfill Trump’s campaign promise to end taxes on Social Security benefits.
“Politicians have known about and neglected these programs for 40 years now,” MacGuineas said. “But the problem is much worse now.”
Some experts say significant legislation is needed to shore up Social Security’s finances. President Donald Trump has vowed not to cut the popular entitlement program.
The federal government’s finances are increasingly in question.
The national debt has ballooned to over $39 trillion, and the government has been running budget deficits for years. For the first five months of fiscal 2026, the federal budget deficit totaled just about $1 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
Deficit hawks in Congress and outside budget experts warn that, particularly given higher interest payments, the government faces a fiscal reckoning.
In October, the CBO estimated that the federal budget deficit for fiscal 2025 was $1.8 trillion, as interest payments crossed $1 trillion for the first time.
The 2025 federal deficit is high by historical standards and indicates a long-run mismatch between spending and revenues that threatens the federal government’s fiscal health.
At $1.8 trillion, the deficit is roughly 6% of gross domestic product — a ratio that, before 2023, was never seen during peacetime, other than during the 2008 financial crisis and the onset of the pandemic.
Interest payments have soared, a concerning trend that has worsened in recent years. Net interest on the public debt was $1.03 trillion in 2025, up from $949 billion in fiscal 2024.
