The Iran war has turned into a political disaster for President Donald Trump. The conflict was never popular to begin with, and predictably, support for it has dropped over time. Eighty percent of Americans favor ending the war as quickly as possible. Despite an overwhelming victory on the battlefield, the president and his negotiators pivoted dramatically in recent weeks and are now all-in on a deal that is looking more and more like Barack Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, at best.
Politically, Iran is a double-edged sword for the White House and Republicans. A war-weary electorate is skeptical of any military engagement in the Middle East, and if former President Joe Biden’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan is any indication, the public is unlikely to approve of the details of any deal the Iranian regime would accept.
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If there is one thing Americans hate more than war, it is losing a war. Biden’s approval rating never saw daylight again after Abbey Gate.
Whether Trump’s about face on Iran is solely due to the political realities at home, or if the president was being truthful when he said in France that negotiations prevented a “global depression,” an end to the conflict will not be a get out of jail free card electorally for the administration. Even if Vice President JD Vance’s dovish view of the Iranian regime proves successful, which seems unlikely if past is prologue, Republicans still have massive structural challenges to overcome heading into the midterm elections.
Per the RealClearPolitics polling average, Trump’s approval rating is 17.3 points underwater. Polling on specific issues paints an even grimmer picture. The president is 15.1 points underwater on foreign policy, which is unsurprising considering the results of the Iran war.
On the economy, Trump is down 26.3 points, with a whopping 61.3% of voters disapproving of the president’s handling of the issue that matters most. Inflation was the issue that sank Biden’s presidency and allowed Republicans to take the White House and both houses of Congress in 2024. On his handling of inflation, voters give the president his lowest marks of any issue polled. Nearly 69% of voters disapprove.
Inflation rose to a three-year high of 4.2% in May. Even if there is a swift end to the Iran war and energy prices normalize, Republicans will still have to contend with the fact that the president’s ill-advised global trade war sent consumer prices soaring.
According to Yale’s Budget Lab, American households lost between $939 and $1,478 in purchasing power due to the president’s tariff regime. Like the Iran war, the administration owns inflation. Trump dreamed of reshoring American manufacturing, but ended up hitting families with a $1,000 annual consumption tax instead. The Federal Reserve, under the new Trump-appointed Chairman Kevin Warsh, declined to ease interest rates in its June meeting due to persistent inflation. The vote was unanimous. Prediction markets believe the Fed is likely to increase rates by the end of the year, as the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage sits at 6.5%.
Swing state polling is particularly ominous for the GOP. The president’s approval rating in Pennsylvania has cratered to 29%. Only 17% of Pennsylvanians approve of Trump’s handling of inflation. In Georgia, a state Trump won in 2024, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) holds a 3-point lead over Republican Mike Collins. The economy is the No. 1 issue for Georgia voters, followed by housing affordability, according to Emerson.
VANCE’S STRAW MAN OFFENSIVE ON IRAN
Even in increasingly red Ohio, both the gubernatorial and senatorial races are far closer than they should be. Economic conditions have the GOP playing defense in the Buckeye State and elsewhere at the expense of winnable swing-state races.
For Trump and Republicans, an end to the Iran war, particularly one that benefits America, would be a godsend politically but would not be enough to save their chances in November. The clock is ticking, and unless voters’ economic concerns are addressed, we could be looking at another blue wave.
Brady Leonard (@bradyleonard) is a writer, musician, and host of The No Gimmicks Podcast.