As military pressure on the Iranian regime waxes and wanes, we have yet to arrive at an achievable end state for the conflict — one that focuses not on the world as it is today but on the world as it will be in the 2030s and beyond.
The decision must focus on one key element: Iran’s position as the central terrorist node of the global anti-American axis alongside China and Russia. This focus will not only build deeper coordination with regional partners on shutting down proxies such as the Houthis and Hamas, but also build greater regional confidence in working together to confront Iran over the Strait of Hormuz.
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The mullahs’ crown jewel at the heart of this global and regional terrorist infrastructure is Hezbollah. Since its founding in the 1980s, Hezbollah has been the linchpin for the international coordination of terrorist networks from Latin America to Eastern Europe. It has further destabilized the already fractured state of Lebanon, and it has attacked governments, tourists, and Jews across the globe. Its tentacles reach into narco-terrorist syndicates and Mexican drug cartels.
We forget that its opening act was the destruction of the Marine barracks in Beirut in 1983, the deadliest day for the Marine Corps since the Battle of Iwo Jima. Prioritizing the elimination of Hezbollah and its network of surrogates brings us not only closer to finishing the current fight with Iran but also closer to a less complicated world map on the day after its demise.
In the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s strike on Iran’s Revolutionary Guard-Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani in 2020, Hezbollah stepped in to coordinate funding and training between Iran and its Middle East proxies. And as Hezbollah has faced unprecedented military pressure by Israel over the last three years, Revolutionary Guard units have stepped into Lebanon to buttress what is left of its combat power.
The strategic imperative for the United States is clear: Destroy the Islamic Republic’s ability to “export the revolution.” Operations Midnight Hammer and Epic Fury removed the imminence of Iran’s nuclear aspirations. The threat is there, but it has been set back substantially.
This is not an invitation for complacency, nor does it mean less vigilance about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. In that light, a primary focus of diplomacy as well as military and economic pressure should now shift to what matters greatly to the regime’s present-day plans: exporting terrorism.
The U.S.-brokered Trilateral Framework Agreement between Israel and Lebanon is a case in point. The first signed agreement between the two countries in decades is established on a common commitment to realize a future of peace by eradicating the influence of the single shared threat: the Iranian regime, particularly through Hezbollah. It is not only “the beginning of the beginning” of Israel-Lebanon relations as Secretary of State Rubio described it, but it is also “the beginning of the end state” when it comes to where we need to be with regard to Iran.
The shared U.S., Israeli, and Lebanese efforts to marginalize Hezbollah should be mirrored in other parts of the world. And it is not limited to Hezbollah, but rather to ensure that every prong of the regime’s international economic, military, and political influence apparatus is taken down.
The United States should focus on deepening coordination between Jordan, Israel, and the Syrian government, as well as on interdicting the regime’s Captagon trafficking throughout the region – shepherded by Hezbollah, and facilitated through tribes and criminal networks – as well as Iran’s global weapons trafficking networks, as described in a recent America First Policy Institute report. As part of the latter effort, the United States must also work with partners in Central Asia and Europe to stop the flow of Iranian military technology to Putin, cutting off a key artery in Russia’s war machine and potentially pushing that war toward an end.
COULD TOPPLING THE IRANIAN REGIME BE AN OCTOBER SURPRISE?
As the examples of Lebanon and Russia demonstrate, cutting off Iran’s ability to foment terror around the world is perhaps the most direct way to bring about peace. Much like during the first Trump administration, pushing Iranian regime influence out is the surest way to make lasting peace possible, including the expansion of the Abraham Accords.
How the U.S. approaches Iran in 2026 will determine the trajectory not only of Iran itself but also of geopolitical dynamics around the world. Nuclear is a part of that, but it cannot be the totality of it. Iran’s global footprint of terrorism means that the U.S. has a global network of allies and partners who must carry their weight and contribute to the fight together.
Robert Wilkie served as the 10th Secretary of Veterans Affairs and as Undersecretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness during the first Trump administration. He is co-chair of American Security at the America First Policy Institute.
Lt. Gen. (ret.) Keith Kellogg served most recently as U.S. special envoy to Ukraine and, during the first Trump administration, as acting national security adviser to President Donald Trump. He is co-chair of American Security at the America First Policy Institute.