CARLISLE, Pa. — Russian troops sent to the front lines survive an average of less than one hour given the overwhelming lethality and capabilities of Ukraine’s drone arsenal, according to U.S. CIA Director John Ratcliffe.
Ukraine’s defense and tech sector has mastered emerging technologies, like offensive and defensive drone capabilities, which have saved the country from a much larger and better-resourced Russian military for more than four years.
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“Our intelligence is consistent with some of the open source reporting you may have seen in Ukraine, so the average life expectancy of a Russian recruit right now arriving on the battlefield in Ukraine is estimated to be between 20 and 30 minutes,” Ratcliffe said during a Wednesday event at the Pennsylvania Defense and Innovation summit at the Army War College in Carlisle, Pennsylvania.
“That’s because AI-powered drones have gotten to be such specialized low-cost killing machines,” the CIA director added.
Russia’s losses during the war are staggering. Secretary of State Marco Rubio estimated back in November that 7,000 Russian troops were getting killed weekly on average, while a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies from earlier this month estimated that in 2026, roughly 30,000 Russian troops were injured or killed monthly.
The CSIS report found that Russia has had roughly 450,000 troops killed in battle and 1.4 million casualties between February 2022 and June 2026.
Russian leaders have taken extraordinary efforts to keep funneling thousands of troops to the front lines throughout the conflict, in part by recruiting prisoners to fight in exchange for their freedom, while they have also deceived thousands of fighting-aged African men into coming to Russia under the guise of opportunities. The goal of these efforts is meant to avoid the need for a mobilization effort because Vladimir Putin’s 2022 partial mobilization was unpopular domestically, and led some war-aged eligible men to flee the country.
Russia’s ground offensive has also largely stalled in recent months.
“Right now, Russia occupies 20% of Ukraine. When I came in as CIA director 18 months ago, Russia occupied 19% of Ukraine,” Ratcliffe added. “So the pace of their advance has stopped as Ukraine’s mastery of emerging technologies and in this case, drone warfare, asymmetric warfare, is such a great equalizer and shows why we have to be leading on this in all respects.”
Ukraine has been at the forefront of drone technology, and several of its allies, including the United States, are looking to benefit from its knowledge and experience. Ukraine is largely looking for expensive air defense systems and the interceptors required for their use, which the country has not been able to design and manufacture on its own in exchange for its expertise on autonomy.
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President Volodymyr Zelensky met with President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in Kyiv on Wednesday, and after their meeting, he touted “the first document forming the basis of the Drone Deal,” which he described as a “major defense agreement between Ukraine and the European Union.” In exchange, Ukraine “expect[s] financial support from the EU for our anti-ballistic program.”
He announced back on July 7 that Ukraine had made a drone deal with Denmark and said it was their “ninth such agreement.”
