Currently, 31 states have opted in or signaled their intent to participate in the tax credit. Mind you, donors from all 50 states and the District of Columbia can contribute, but keeping their donations in-state is another story. States still parked on the sidelines — currently 19 and D.C. — no longer have the luxury of pleading ignorance. Though their parents can receive the tax credit, children living in states that have not opted in cannot receive scholarships. For the first time, we know precisely how many children could benefit when a governor says yes, and precisely how many get left behind when a governor says nothing.

In California, 5.9 million children are in limbo. In Illinois, 1.9 million. In Pennsylvania, 1.8 million. In Michigan, 1.5 million. Every one of those children is waiting for a decision that should be a no-brainer.

Here’s how it works: signed into law last summer and launching in 2027, the EFTC lets taxpayers claim a dollar-for-dollar federal credit of up to $1,700 for donating to a scholarship-granting organization. SGOs convert those donations into K-12 scholarships for eligible families. Eligibility is deliberately broad; any household earning up to 300% of the area median income qualifies, which is why roughly 9 in 10 children nationwide fall in range.

Opting in doesn’t guarantee every eligible child gets a scholarship; that still depends on how many donors contribute and receive the credit. But none of it is even possible until a state opts in. Full stop.

The 31 states currently participating cover 30.9 million eligible students, or just under 60% of the national total. That leaves nearly 21 million children stuck waiting in 19 states and D.C., where leaders have yet to act. In 18 of those states, families don’t have a single private school choice program to fall back on. For those children, this isn’t a nice-to-have. It’s the only door available, and it’s still closed.

This isn’t a theory. A decade of evidence on school choice expansion shows the same result repeatedly: when education freedom expands, outcomes improve for students in public and private schools alike. A rising tide lifts every boat, including the ones that never left the dock.

The 20.8 million children still locked out aren’t a talking point. They’re real students, and their access to opportunity currently depends on nothing more than whether a governor is willing to pick up a pen. That is not a heavy lift or a difficult decision, and even one Democratic governor, Colorado’s Gov. Jared Polis, admitted that he’d “be crazy not to.”

Let’s be honest about why some states are still “reviewing” instead of acting. In state after state, the holdup isn’t a lack of information; it’s teachers unions working overtime to keep that information from mattering. These are organizations that pour millions of dollars in mandatory dues into political spending every year, and a staggering share of it has nothing to do with classrooms, textbooks, or teacher pay. It goes to lobbying against exactly the kind of opportunity this analysis lays out, protecting a monopoly on where education dollars can go rather than protecting children.

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Union leadership is pulling out all the stops to defend its political leverage and to deny this potentially life-changing opportunity, an opportunity that benefits children in both public and private schools and costs the state nothing. Failure to opt in is indefensible, and parents will remember who stood for them and who stood in the way.

Every governor now has an exact number attached to their name: how many children they help by opting in, and how many they fail by refusing to. The full breakdown, including an interactive state-by-state map, is available here. The only question left is whether the governors still sitting on the sidelines are going to keep making that choice for 21 million children who never got a vote.

Brian Jodice is the national press secretary at the American Federation for Children.