Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the Florida Senate race to “safe Republican” after a socialist candidate secured the Democratic nomination in Tuesday’s primary, setting up the general election race between a left-wing state lawmaker and incumbent Sen. Ashley Moody (R-FL).
State Rep. Angie Nixon, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, won the Democratic nomination, defeating well-funded retired Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman, and will take on President Donald Trump-backed Moody in the general election.
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The University of Virginia Center for Politics’ Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the race further in the GOP’s favor after Nixon’s win, with the newsletter’s managing editor, Kyle Kondik, noting Moody’s significant cash advantage in the race. While Nixon, with under $300,000 in cash on hand, overcame a primary competitor with $16 million in funding, running a statewide general election without significant funding will be an uphill climb. Moody has about $8.4 million in cash for the race.
“I don’t see how she runs a viable statewide campaign — money isn’t everything but it is important,” Kondik said Tuesday on X.
Trump steadily won Florida in 2024 by a 13-point margin over former Vice President Kamala Harris. A Democrat has not won a Senate race there since 2012, when former Sen. Bill Nelson was elected to serve a third term. He was ousted by Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) in 2018.
While Nixon garnered enough grassroots support to secure the nomination, other socialist candidates in the Sunshine State did not share in her success. Establishment-backed incumbents such as Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) and Jared Moskowitz (D-FL) fended off progressive challengers to defend their spots in the House.
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Cook Political Report also rates the Senate race as “safely Republican” and expects Moody to cruise to reelection. Moody was tapped by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis to fill the seat left vacant by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Nixon could still put on quite a show on the campaign trail, even if she is projected to fall to Moody. While serving in the state Senate, Nixon drew statewide attention this year for staging a sit-in over redistricting in DeSantis’s office, which ended with her arrest. The socialist candidate has framed her campaign on fighting for the working class, abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and taxing the rich.
