President Trump’s campaign often brags that his supporters are more enthusiastic about voting to reelect him than supporters of Joe Biden are about voting for the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. But Biden’s choice of Kamala Harris as a running mate, and the surrounding buzz, has prompted some people to say that their view of the Democratic ticket has changed for the better.
The day that Biden announced his pick, commentators on cable news fawned over Harris being chosen. Celebrities weighed in, with Taylor Swift tweeting simply “YES.” Many Twitter users commented that they are much more excited about voting Democratic with the California senator on the ticket.
“She brings something very unique to the table, in the sense that she’s a fierce debater, she is amazingly articulate in making her point. These are very important characteristics,” said Moe Vela, a Democratic consultant who was a senior adviser to Biden when he was vice president. “She’s fierce. And I think, you know, we need a fierce running mate right now for the vice president.”
The general theory behind choosing a running mate is not to try to pick someone with the intent of energizing certain segments of voters, but to “do no harm.” Studies show that the vice presidential nominee does not generally drive voters to cast their ballot in favor of a presidential ticket, but they can end up damaging a ticket. Some political analysts believe former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin was ultimately a drag on Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain in 2008.
Reports indicate that Biden followed that cautious strategy. While Harris is a historic choice in that she will be the first black and South Asian woman on a major party ticket, she was also the most predictable choice.
But Biden’s old age — it is possible that he does not seek a second term if elected — and his supporters’ lackluster feelings about him could mean that Harris adds a motivating force to the ticket, changing Democrats’ thinking from only being enthusiastic about voting against Trump to being excited about voting for a Biden-Harris ticket.
Numerous polls have shown that supporters of Trump are much more enthusiastic about voting for him than Biden supporters are about voting for the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. Most recently, an August 9-11 Economist/YouGov poll found 63% of Trump supporters said that they were more enthusiastic about voting in this election than in previous years, compared to 52% for Biden supporters.
Some poll analysts argue that this “voter enthusiasm” is not the best indicator of one candidate having an advantage over another. Unenthusiastic votes count just as much as enthusiastic ones, and negative feelings about a candidate have proven to be a bigger motivating factor for voters who show up to vote against them.
That could explain why Biden is ahead in the polls despite enthusiasm for Trump. An Aug. 9-12 Fox News poll found that 57% of Biden supporters were more motivated to vote by the fear that Trump would win, compared to 51% of Trump supporters saying that their motivation was enthusiasm for Trump to win again.
Still, enthusiasm is an important metric in the sense that it could be an indication that voters will actually show up to the polls and vote rather than decide to stay home.
“It’s been rewarding to watch the reaction of so many black women in particular and how excited they are about this,” Democratic analyst and consultant Mary Anne Marsh told the Washington Examiner. “I do think it’s going to motivate people even more and especially young black women to make sure that they and their friends and their colleagues and classmates and family members get out and vote.”
Will the addition of Harris to the ticket translate to an electoral advantage? It’s too early to tell, but early polling following Biden’s announcement shows that Harris is helping him — for now.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted this week following Biden’s announcement of Harris as his running mate concluded that her inclusion on the ticket could help Biden appeal to women, younger voters, and some Republicans, based on her favorability ratings being higher than Biden’s among those groups.
But the poll also found that the addition of Harris on the ticket only slightly bumped up Biden’s lead over Trump nationally, 46% to 38%. A similar poll from earlier in the week before he announced Harris as his choice showed Biden having a lead of 44% to 37%.
Harris certainly saw a bump in positive feelings among voters following the announcement that she will be on the ticket.
A Morning Consult flash poll conducted Wednesday found that voters’ view of Harris drastically increased after she was added to the ticket compared to their views in June. Among all voters, views increased from 33% favorable and 34% unfavorable in June to 45% favorable and 37% unfavorable on Wednesday. The jump was largest among black voters, whose opinion of Harris increased 30 points: From 35% favorable and 26% unfavorable in June to 52% favorable and 28% unfavorable on Wednesday.
Those figures could change, though, as news of Harris being the presumptive vice presidential nominee winds down after next week’s Democratic National Convention and the Trump campaign works to define her to voters as a radical leftist.
