182 DAYS, AND NO END IN SIGHT: In the heady early days of President Donald Trump’s war of choice against Iran, his “war” secretary Pete Hegseth was oozing with overconfidence and brimming with unbridled bravado. At a Pentagon briefing after five weeks of bombing, Hegseth declared Operation Epic Fury “a capital V military victory” that had dealt Iran “a devastating military defeat.” The war, he said, was over. “Iran accepted the ceasefire under overwhelming pressure.”
To say with hindsight that sounds premature and hopelessly naive would be to risk serious understatement. It should be noted that while he has fired dozens of highly decorated generals and admirals, Hegseth’s only real experience in an active war zone was 20 years ago as an Army Reserve 1st lieutenant in a restive area of Iraq where, according to his memoir, his job was “building relationships with local tribal power brokers.” As the civilian head of the military, Hegseth apparently paid little heed to two well-worn maxims drilled into the heads of every Pentagon war planner, to wit: “No plan survives first contact with the enemy,” and “The enemy gets a vote.”
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And then there’s “An army travels on its stomach,” but let’s not get into the travails of USS Lincoln right now. The carrier is on the way home, and the crew was treated to a steel deck picnic en route.
What we have learned from Wall Street Journal reporting is that Trump was convinced to start the war based on options for “decisive” military action drawn up by Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine and U.S. Central Commander Adm. Brad Cooper, and advocated by the inexperienced former junior officer Hegseth.
Trump was persuaded to ignore the warnings from the U.S. intelligence community presented to him by then-DNI Tulsi Gabbard, who, according to the Wall Street Journal, told Trump, “killing Iran’s supreme leader would likely usher in a more hard-line regime open to acquiring nuclear weapons. Tehran would rush to close the Strait of Hormuz, destabilizing the global energy market. And it would strike U.S. forces and partners in the Middle East.”
Trump’s famous gut told him none of that would happen. After all, it didn’t happen last year when U.S. B-2 bombers “obliterated” Iranian nuclear sites. “I have a gut,” Trump said years ago. “And my gut tells me more sometimes than anybody else’s brain can ever tell me.” He admitted publicly that he was taken by surprise when Iran attacked U.S. bases in the region and seized control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Hegseth remains in denial that the war plan was in any way flawed. Early on, he derided the news media for asking tough questions, accusing “dishonest and anti-Trump” reporters of portraying the war as “an endless abyss or a forever war or a quagmire.”
“Nothing could be further from the truth,” he insisted.
AN OBJECTIVE REVIEW: The objectives that Hegseth likes to cite as evidence the U.S. is winning or has already won — the sinking of the Iranian navy, the downing of its air force, the degradation of its missile and drone forces — have, for the most part, not translated into achieving political goals, which, to review, are as stated by the president at the outset:
- Total, unconditional surrender
- A weakening of the regime such that the Iranian people could rise and topple it
- Destruction of Iran’s offensive drone and missile capability, to prevent a “missile shield” from protecting a future nuclear program
- An end to Iran’s ability to threaten its neighbors
- An end to Iran’s support of proxies in the region
- And the big one: Preventing Iran from ever gaining the capacity to produce or acquire a nuclear weapon
- And the new one created by the war: Give up its claim to control passage through the Strait of Hormuz
None have yet been achieved. One could argue that Iran is even farther away from gaining a nuclear weapon than it was after last summer’s’ Midnight Hammer, but a deal to ensure Iran doesn’t reconstitute the program covertly isn’t even being talked about, as Trump tries to use economic pressure to get Iran to stop threatening ship traffic through the Strait.
Iran retains the enriched uranium that Trump dubbed “nuclear dust,” and if it learned anything from Trump’s cozying up to North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, the only sure way to keep Americans from attacking again is to have a credible nuclear deterrent.
A WORD ABOUT THE INTELLIGENCE: As I wrap up a more than three-decade career covering the Pentagon and the U.S. military, if I’ve learned one thing about U.S. intelligence, it is that it is never definitive. It can be judged as high confidence or low confidence, but high confidence can be wrong, and low confidence can be right.
A president can cite the same intelligence assessment to pursue a course of action he’s already predisposed to do, or as a rationale not to act on one he doesn’t. The ambiguity allows the same intelligence to be deemed convincing or insufficient according to the whims of the policymaker.
What’s clear about the pre-war intelligence in the case of the Iran war is that — as DNI Gabbard testified before Congress — Iran was not two weeks away from having a bomb. However, at the same time, Iran had not given up its desire to develop nuclear weapons in the future.
The U.S. intelligence community’s assessment that in response to a massive U.S. attack, Iran would close the Strait, attack Gulf countries, and its regime would not crack was spot on. The fact that Trump dismissed the intelligence as wrong underscores the importance of having the Office of the Director of National Intelligence led by someone with the experience and gravitas to have the president’s confidence, not someone like Gabbard, who was statutorily unqualified to be the nation’s spymaster.
THE STALEMATE INCREASINGLY SUITS TRUMP OVER IRAN
Good Friday morning and welcome to penultimate edition of Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com.
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NOTE TO READERS: My time at the Washington Examiner is fast coming to an end. This is the next-to-last Daily on Defense newsletter I’ll be writing before retirement. I’m going away, but the newsletter is not. Watch your email inbox for what comes next. Meanwhile, here’s what’s happening:
TIDE TURNING IN BATTLE FOR HORMUZ? As I slip into a much-anticipated retirement after more than half a century in journalism, the final outcome of the U.S. war against Iran is very much in doubt. Wars are easier to start than to end, and rarely turn out exactly as planned. But that doesn’t mean President Trump won’t be able to eventually legitimately claim some form of victory, at least in the Battle of Hormuz.
After six months, the tide may be shifting in the Strait in favor of the United States, supporting Trump’s claims that the U.S., not Iran, controls the vital chokepoint. “That sucker is open. The Iranian response is very mild. They don’t want us to go back at them. That’s the whole ball game. The rest doesn’t matter,” Trump told Axios in a phone interview on Thursday.
Last night, Adm. Brad Cooper, head of CENTCOM, posted an “operational update” on X, claiming the U.S. military has achieved a “major milestone” by “successfully clearing sea mines in the strait’s international shipping lanes that were laid months ago by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.”
“These are the long-standing lanes international shipping has historically used to transit the Strait of Hormuz,” Cooper said in the video post. “Over the past few months, our forces meticulously and quietly cleared them of sea mine threats using a combination of Navy divers, Navy SEALs, and airpower.”
“The circumstances were challenging and dangerous to say the least, but we got the job done,” Cooper said. “Bottom line: Today, international shipping lanes are open, and momentum is building.
Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels, Goldman Sachs Group reported yesterday. Total exports of crude and oil products from the region have risen to 15-16 million barrels a day, as the U.S. military has been able to escort more ships through the corridor hugging the Omani coast.
“The USA has guided 130 million barrels out over the past 14 days,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent posted on X. “The Blockade and Operation Economic Outcast will crush the failing Iranian economy.”
CHINA, IRAN’S LARGEST OIL PURCHASER, DISMISSES US ‘ECONOMIC WARFARE’
IRAN’S ECONOMY IS REELING: “Iran is facing an acute fuel crisis, which has been exacerbated by the U.S. naval blockade,” the Institute for the Study of War says in its latest Middle East assessment. “The lack of trade during the war has also led to shortages in foreign currency and basic goods, causing hyperinflation.” But the Washington-based think tank says Iran is showing no sign of capitulating to the U.S. demands that the regime stop threatening commercial shipping.
“Key decision-makers in Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s inner circle continue to threaten to respond to U.S. economic pressure and do not appear to have softened their positions on core regime demands,” The ISW assesses. “These decision-makers’ insistence on maintaining maximalist demands despite immense economic pressure highlights their willingness to incur economic costs and the risk of potential domestic unrest.”
President Trump continues to insist Iran is begging to make a deal, and was irked by a report on Fox News last night. “Fox News did a particularly inaccurate report on the Failing Islamic Republic of Iran. I don’t want to meet, they do. In fact, they are begging to make a deal,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “Bret Baier should straighten out his flunkies.”
Baier clapped back on his nightly Special Report show. “First of all, Jonathan Hunt is not a flunkie; he’s a great reporter. Second of all, Mr. President, we didn’t say you wanted to meet,” Baier said on the air.
“In fact, we played a soundbite that you didn’t want to meet, and there are no negotiations. We said Treasury Secretary Bessent is hoping to meet with G20 countries to increase the pressure on Iran, and that Gulf state allies, including Qatar, are inside Tehran trying to get Iran to agree to concessions.”
BRET BAIER TUTS TRUMP AFTER PRESIDENT RIPS IRAN STORY: ‘WE DIDN’T SAY YOU WANTED TO MEET’
DETERRING PUTIN: CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Moscow earlier this week on a U.S. military plane in an apparent mission to warn Russian President Vladimir Putin not to attack any NATO countries just because the U.S. seems distracted by the war in Iran. Who Ratcliffe met with is unclear, but it was not Putin.
The Washington Post reports this morning that “fresh U.S. intelligence” indicates “the Kremlin sees the United States as weakened by the Iran war,” which could provide an opportunity for Putin to test America’s commitment to NATO’s Article Five, which says an attack on one is an attack on all.
“The classified intelligence suggesting that Putin sees the U.S. as weakened by the six-month-old war in Iran follows reports of diminished troop readiness and munitions shortfalls,” the Post reports.
The Associated Press, quoting a U.S. defense official in Europe and a NATO official, reports that U.S. military is experiencing a “beyond critical” shortage of advanced Patriot missile interceptors in Europe. The U.S. is also short on sophisticated offensive weapons, including Tomahawk cruise missiles and the short-range Army Tactical Missile System.
“What if Mr. Putin staged a lightning raid, say, to snatch territory in one of the Baltic states? Would NATO respond with force?” the Wall Street Journal asked in an editorial. “If not, Mr. Putin would be able to achieve a longtime goal of exposing the alliance as weak and regain some political stature at home.”
At a White House ceremony where he signed an executive order renaming Lake Ontario “Lake America,” President Trump brushed off the threat. “I’ve had good talks with him,” he told reporters. “He’s not going to be attacking a NATO territory.”
Earlier this week, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth chastised the news media for playing up the weapons shortage. “An American press is foolish to want to press an American War Department about where we may or may not be on classified, exquisite systems,” Hegseth told reporters in Oshkosh, Wisconsin. “I’ll just tell you this — we had plenty when we needed it, and we have plenty now, and we have plenty when we’ll need them in the future, absolutely.”
CIA DIRECTOR JOHN RATCLIFFE TOOK TRIP TO MOSCOW ABOARD C-17 FOR HIGH-LEVEL DISCUSSIONS
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THE CALENDAR:
FRIDAY | AUGUST 28
11 a.m. 2101 NASA Parkway, Houston, Texas — President Donald Trump delivers remarks at NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center to award the Congressional Space Medal of Honor to the crew members of NASA’S Artemis II mission, with NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman; NASA astronaut Reid Wiseman; NASA astronaut Victor Glover; NASA astronaut Christina Koch; and Canadian Space Agency astronaut Jeremy Hansen
6 p.m. Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Beyond the Postwar Era: The Japan Innovation Party’s Vision,” with Hitoshi Aoyagi, chair of the Japan Innovation Party’s Foreign Affairs Committee; and Alex Saito, chair of the Japan Innovation Party’s Research Council https://www.hudson.org/events/beyond-postwar-era-japan-innovation-partys-vision
7 p.m. 5015 Connecticut Ave. NW — Politics and Prose Bookstore book discussion: “The Art of Diplomacy: How American Negotiators Reached Historic Agreements That Changed the World,” with author Stuart Eizenstat, former U.S. ambassador to the European Union; and former U.S. Trade Representative Carla Hills https://politics-prose.com/stuart-e-eizenstat-082826
MONDAY | AUGUST 31
1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW — Center for Strategic International Studies “Strategic Landpower Dialogue, A Conversation with General Eirik Kristoffersen, Norwegian Chief of Defense,” with retired Lt. Gen. Leslie C. Smith, vice president for leadership and education, AUSA; and Tom Karako, director, Missile Defense Project and senior fellow, Defense and Security Department, CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/strategic-landpower-dialogue
1 p.m. Stoystown, Pa. — House Intelligence Committee field hearing at the Flight 93 National Memorial on “Review of the 9/11 Commission Report.” http://intelligence.house.gov
TUESDAY | SEPTEMBER 1
10 a.m. 2172 Rayburn — House Foreign Affairs Middle East and North Africa Subcommittee hearing: “Countering Houthi Terrorism: Protecting U.S. Interests and Security in the Red Sea,” with testimony from Nadwa Al-Dawsari, associate fellow at the Middle East Institute; and Allison Minor, director of the Atlantic Council’s Project for Middle East Integration http://foreignaffairs.house.gov
WEDNESDAY | SEPTEMBER 2
10 a.m. 390 Cannon — House Ways and Means Committee hearing: “Strategic Partnerships to Secure Critical Resources and Supply Chains.” http://waysandmeans.house.gov
FRIDAY | SEPTEMBER 4
4 p.m. Santa Clarita, Calif. — House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee field hearing: “Industrial Base and Workforce Development for Skilled Trades,” with testimony from Assistant Defense Secretary Industrial Base Policy Michael Cadenzzi; Eric Chewning, executive vice president for maritime systems and corporate strategy at Huntington Ingalls Industries; and Michael Reed, president of the Pennsylvania College of Technology https://www.youtube.com/user/houseappropsgop
FRIDAY | SEPTEMBER 11
9:30 a.m. National Press Club — Arms Control Association briefing: “Mitigating the Risks of AI in Nuclear Operations.” with retired Lt. Gen. Jack Shanahan; Herb Lin, senior research scholar and Hank J. Holland fellow in cyber policy and security at the Hoover Institution and Stanford University; Matthew Sharp, a senior nuclear fellow, Center for Nuclear Security Policy at MIT and former acting deputy assistant secretary of state for nuclear affairs; and Erin Dumbacher, Stanton nuclear security senior fellow and director, Defense and National Security program, Council on Foreign Relations https://secure.everyaction.com/
THURSDAY | SEPTEMBER 17
9:30 a.m. SVC-217, U.S. Capitol — Senate Armed Services Committee CLOSED briefing on the implementation of the National Defense Strategy and its impact on global defense posture. http://www.armed-services.senate.gov
