Cruz still put up a fight. He beat Trump in Iowa, preventing what might have been a coronation given the future president’s subsequent victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

“We outraised George W. Bush. We outraised John McCain. We outraised Mitt Romney,” Cruz reminded the Washington Examiner during an interview in his Senate office in 2023, referring to their Republican presidential primary campaigns. “We ended up receiving 8 million votes and winning 12 states. Other than Trump and myself, no other Republican won more than a single state.”

“We came very, very close to winning,” he added. “And I can tell you that campaign was the most fun I’ve ever had in my life.”

One of the reasons many in the conservative movement held out on Trump, who had been a stranger to most of their causes before running for president, was that it was their best opportunity to beat the Republican establishment and capture the nomination in a generation. 

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush was a weak front-runner prior to Trump’s entry into the race. In addition to Cruz, there was then-Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (now the secretary of state), then-Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), and neurosurgeon Ben Carson, among others. 

Trump interrupted all that. Cruz was unhappy, refusing to endorse the real estate developer and reality TV star who bested him for the nomination during his speech at the 2016 Republican convention in Cleveland. (It should be noted that Trump took some shots at Cruz’s wife and father during the campaign.) Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) was also a vocal holdout.

Unlike the Never Trumpers, these two senators came around once Trump proved to be conservative enough. Cruz endorsed Trump in all three general elections. But his presidential ambitions never left him.

“It’s no secret that I want to be president,” Cruz said on a podcast last month.

This time, Cruz may get a second chance to not only win the nomination but also the argument about the GOP’s future. “Going forward, we’re in the midst of a debate about who our party is and what we believe, and I think economically we’ve got to debate, ‘Are we a small-government, free-market conservative party? Are we a big-government, nanny-state party?” he told MS NOW last month. The Texas senator is the first important Republican outside the Trump administration to tease a presidential run. 

Cruz would possibly get to test his ideology and ambition against Vice President JD Vance, who represents a more thoroughgoing version of populism and nationalism than Trump but without either the baggage or benefits that come with decades of celebrity. 

“On Ted Cruz, I mean, look — clearly Ted is a very authentic and likable guy, and I’m sure he’ll do great,” Vance deadpanned when asked about his former Senate colleague’s presidential hopes during a White House press briefing on Thursday. Authenticity and likability are often named as Cruz liabilities, making the vice president’s quip reminiscent of Barack Obama’s backhanded compliment to Hillary Clinton in 2008: “You’re likable enough, Hillary.”

Cruz has frequently clashed with Fox News personality-turned-podcaster Tucker Carlson, whom Vance has been pressured to denounce, in a possible prelude to campaign fights over Israel and foreign policy. 

Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, about whom Cruz has written a book, provided the Texan with good campaign fodder recently. “You’re one of the people who actually stands up, particularly at times when others seem to wither, and I appreciate it,” the iconic conservative justice said.

Cruz can hope to draw on precedent. Reagan was the runner-up for the Republican nomination in 1976 before winning it in 1980. George H.W. Bush was runner-up in 1980 before winning in 1988; Bob Dole in 1988 before winning in 1996; John McCain in 2000 before winning in 2008; and Mitt Romney finished second in the popular vote in 2008 before capturing the nomination in 2012. (Mike Huckabee was runner-up in delegate count.)

VANCE SAYS TED CRUZ IS ‘LIKABLE AND AUTHENTIC’ AS TEXAS SENATOR EYES UP A WHITE HOUSE BID

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) might similarly want a do-over of his promising but ultimately ineffectual 2024 campaign against Trump. DeSantis may be viewed as a more current figure in 2028 than Cruz, who will have been in Washington for 15 years by the start of the primaries.

Trump may also want to play kingmaker in 2028, possibly to the benefit of Vance or Rubio. “He’s a talented guy,” Trump recently said when asked about another Cruz presidential campaign.