The decision to use the vast military and economic power of the United States to destroy Iran’s ability to terrorize and intimidate its neighbors in the Middle East is by far the most consequential choice of President Donald Trump’s six years in office.
Trump did fundamentally alter the future course of the U.S. Supreme Court with his three nominations in his first term. That pushback against an originalist majority on the court should keep the Constitution safe from its domestic adversaries for a decade or more as a result.
Stay informed.Stay ahead.
Join Washington Examiner for unlimited access to the news, analysis, and commentary that matter most.
Already a member? Log in
Trump has also guaranteed an era of economic growth for a few years through his first-term tax cuts, which have been made permanent in his second term, and by sweeping deregulation and aggressive shrinking of the size and reach of the federal government. The president’s orders for the lightning strike against Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro and for the expected action against Cuba will join with the democratically-made choices of Central and South American countries to mold the hemisphere into one safe for free enterprise and the world’s long-term hope for freedom hand-in-hand with flourishing. (Reasonable people assume Canada will eventually get off its decade-old bender of ignoring the reality of the menace of the Chinese Communist Party’s ambitions and stop playing the dupe like some jilted high school sweetheart plotting payback against the ex who found a better option for the prom.)
All of the above pales, however, next to Trump’s decision to crumple Iranian power, beginning with the “maximum pressure” campaign and the elimination of Gen. Qasem Soleimani in the first term, followed in his second term by Operations Midnight Hammer, Epic Fury, and now Economic Outcast.
The combination of devastating bombing (done in part with wing tip-towing tip strikes alongside the fighter pilots of our ally Israel and then via our other strikes alone or with other allies including the United Arab Emirates) and now the almost completely effective blockade in the Strait of Hormuz — the biggest operation of the U.S. Navy since World War II, one far exceeding in scope that of the Cuban Missile Crisis— has put the Islamic Republic of Iran on its back. Even many anti-Trump lifers are noticing the accelerating collection of crises afflicting the junta atop Iran.
All of the president’s nearly six years of pressure on the terrorist state has reduced the Revolutionary Guard (which runs Iran) to an occasional barrage of ineffective missiles and increasingly absurd threats made by increasingly irrelevant spokesmen.
Beginning with the order from Trump in his first term to eliminate Guard evil genius Soleimani through to this past weekend’s sinking of Iranian oil tankers, the enormous power of the American nation has been focused on the longtime bully of the Middle East, which has been in the business of killing Americans and holding Americans hostage since 1979. Many previous presidents tried many different means to bring the Islamic Republic to heel.
None of them succeeded. Trump simply declared “All of the above” and let slip the dogs of war, diplomacy, blockade, and who knows what else America’s covert capabilities have done.
The consequence is a staggered, faltering, flailing Iran. Not a defeated Iran, not yet at least. It could still try for a “Battle of the Bulge” style last throw of all the dice. That’s a death rattle play, but one that could kill or injure many people, including Americans. Indeed, it might be coming to the homeland and/or Israel if the junta wants to go out Hollywood-style, as in Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid (1969) or Thelma & Louise (1991). (Guard dead-enders are far more likely to have watched the former than the latter, but who knows how far Hollywood reached before the ayatollahs pushed Iran back into medievalism.)
Trump can’t campaign on an issue of low salience in the minds of most voters. But for those for whom the collapse of the Islamic Republic would be unalloyed good news, the choice to vote straight Republican ticket is clear: If you want the Guard to continue to face the most daunting campaign against it of its nearly half-century of existence, including the Iran-Iraq War, you want the GOP majorities to stay in place for the rest of Trump’s term.
Polls about issue “salience” — the extent to which an issue “matters” to voters — tell us again and again that Iran specifically and national security/foreign affairs generally matter at most to only 1 in 10 voters.
Among that cohort, however, the urge to turn out will be mighty indeed. Iran has three great enemies connected to significant populations of American voters: Israel, the Arab Gulf states, and the Iranian people.
Start with the very small number of dual U.S.-Israeli citizens — about 100,000 — and run through the other populations tracking America’s battle with Iran, including most American Jews, Arab-Americans, and ex-pat Iranians, and think through the math of how they are likely to split at the ballot box. Those motivated by the issue (and by national security generally, including especially families with active duty military in their ranks) are — my opinion only — going to vote Republican by a very significant margin.
HUGH HEWITT: IS THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC PLANNING AN ATTACK INSIDE THE US?
Because we know Trump’s last 29 months in office are likely the world’s best chance in a half-century to see this evil regime excised from the globe (with the evil regime in Cuba teetering on the same precipice of extirpation). The likelihood of that great advance for peace and prosperity in the Middle East is greater if Trump can count on support from Congress rather than on opposition for the sake of opposition.
“Trust the people” was Winston Churchill’s touchstone, and it is a good one for America’s chattering class to recall. We are told the battle with Iran is unpopular. But is it really among those whose votes are cast with that battle top of mind and first among motives? I don’t think so. November’s “cross-tabs” will tell, but the undeniable turn of the battle in America’s favor is a significant lift for Republicans. They should not hesitate to make the case for supporting winning when ballots are cast.